As things stand, the Conservatives should win a majority of 100 to 150 seats at the next election. The Labour Party is currently committing Hari-kiri , the Lib Dems have been blown away for at least 10 years and by 2020 the referendum will be done and dusted and UKIP will be a laughable irrelevance.
They've never won more than 362 in England at the height of Thatcher and only won more than the current total twice both under Thatcher.
I think a lot of people are forgetting Labour actually increased their seat total in England and their vote share, it was the result in Scotland that left them where they are otherwise they'd be sitting on around 272 seats and an absolutely deadly threat to the Tories.
Labour may be on their knees at the moment. But there are 1750 days to the next general election. Alot can happen in those 250 weeks and you never know what is around the corner.
They've never won more than 362 in England at the height of Thatcher and only won more than the current total twice both under Thatcher.
I think a lot of people are forgetting Labour actually increased their seat total in England and their vote share, it was the result in Scotland that left them where they are otherwise they'd be sitting on around 272 seats and an absolutely deadly threat to the Tories.
And besides the conservatives in 2001 was in far worse shape than what labour is. So it is probably best not to write off the 2020 election just yet.
In this case, the aim is actually for it to be fairer.
Fairer for who?
Will it address the imbalance of smaller parties gaining millions of votes and gaining more seats or will it benefit the the governing party which already enjoys an inbuilt advantage over the others?
I believe he said:
I am a labour voter, sadly I agree with you if Jeremy Corbyn wins in September. I cant for the life of me see why Liz Kendall is at the bottom of the polls. People need to get a grip. See might have Tory friends and family but so have I as well ones voting Lib Dems, Greens and UKIP, but I have always been a Labour voter.
Although a week is a long time in politics I stick by my prediction of a landslide. We are seeing a rerun of the late 70s/early 80s when the Labour Movement went completely barmy. Result - the massacre of 1983.
Although a week is a long time in politics I stick by my prediction of a landslide. We are seeing a rerun of the late 70s/early 80s when the Labour Movement went completely barmy. Result - the massacre of 1983.
In that case, I suggest you gather your life savings (and any other money you can get hold of), go down the bookies and stick the lot on the Conservative winning an overall majority at the next election. You can get odds of 6/4, so you’ll be quids in!
Will it address the imbalance of smaller parties gaining millions of votes and gaining more seats or will it benefit the the governing party which already enjoys an inbuilt advantage over the others?
No. It will be fairer because it will attempt to have all constituencies with a very similar population.
Although a week is a long time in politics I stick by my prediction of a landslide. We are seeing a rerun of the late 70s/early 80s when the Labour Movement went completely barmy. Result - the massacre of 1983.
The country has polarised since then. The northern marginals have gone Labour and the Conservative ones have gone Tory. The seats we used to sit up for in 1979 or 1983 now often have 10000 majorities. The Labour areas are nearly all ones with champagne socialists like Islington, very large immigrant popualtions, or ones that take more than half their income from state spending, employment,, and benefits.
The battle ground will be the 18 seats that changed hands this time and the next rung of Labour marginals. That will expand if UKIP picks up the anti-benefit, anti immigraion and pro defence minded, who are put off by Corbyn rerunning Foot's manifesto.
there's also a catch up coming on 10 years of demographic changes that will reduce Scottish and Welsh and nothern numbers of MPs . The urban seats with 50k electors will go- and the Isle of Wight won't only have one MP for 110k people.
They've never won more than 362 in England at the height of Thatcher and only won more than the current total twice both under Thatcher.
I think a lot of people are forgetting Labour actually increased their seat total in England and their vote share, it was the result in Scotland that left them where they are otherwise they'd be sitting on around 272 seats and an absolutely deadly threat to the Tories.
2 seats gained. The Conservatives still on 330. Net result zero change from now.
And the big issue is that Labour still has absolutely no idea how to get their vote in Scotland back. Looking like the SNP just loses as many seats in England as it might gain back in Scotland, and why would a SNP voter possibly switch back ? if you want a soviet style economy, at least you vote for one run by Scots - not from London.
In this case, the aim is actually for it to be fairer.
Which pointless because FPTP is inherently unfair in a multi party system. Boundary changes will do nothing except make it easier for the Tories to win.
let's not forget the Tories introducing laws making it harder for Labour to raise funds for their party (how very democratic of the Tories, lol)
It's amazing how "fairer" electoral boundaries always seem to result in a healthier majority for the ruling party......
Not really. Labour seats in the north are losing voters. Southern seats are gaining population. Its entirely logical . People go to economically successful areas. They leave less successful areas. People who are doing well don't want to pay out what they earn in more and more taxes. People in areas that are dependant on government spending, vote for parties that will give them more benefits, and more state employment . The boundary review, in 2018, needs to catch up with another 10 years of this drift - from Labour counties to Tory ones - and to deal with more local situations where some seats have too few poeple and some too many.
There's also going to be an adjustment to the numbers of MPs for Scotland and Wales. Wales particularly has more seats than its population justifies.
Which pointless because FPTP is inherently unfair in a multi party system. Boundary changes will do nothing except make it easier for the Tories to win.
let's not forget the Tories introducing laws making it harder for Labour to raise funds for their party (how very democratic of the Tories, lol)
A lot can happen in politics in 5 years & we just had an election. The first question is will Cameron not do a third term & if not, when will be the changeover.
So far those Tory backbench mp's are behaving themselves but what in a year or two's time?.
UKIP have most likely peaked this year but I think they be around for sometime.
The Tories will go more to the centre in a few years making it harder for Labour.
If it seems likely that osborne will be the next conservative leader then he would have had ten years maintaining the govt finances. If he does a good job and there isnt any surprises like what happened in the major years with the ERM which led to interest rates going up then a conservative government is the likely outcome.
We have the referendum about EU membership also coming up as well. Labour lost votes to UKIP because they didnt promise one in their manifesto. UKIP seems to be a one issue party and it is likely that once the in/out issue is resolved then voters will switch back to both the conservatives and labour.
To call an election result in 2020 ten weeks after the last one seems to be a bit presumptious and premature. ALOT can happen between now and may 7th 2020
As things stand, the Conservatives should win a majority of 100 to 150 seats at the next election. The Labour Party is currently committing Hari-kiri , the Lib Dems have been blown away for at least 10 years and by 2020 the referendum will be done and dusted and UKIP will be a laughable irrelevance.
I'm a tory voter but I doubt they'll win a majority that big , there's plenty of obstacles along the way and even if they do win a majority I doubt it will be anywhere near that large. Can't really see them winning above 350 seats.
I wonder how much of modern voting is based on media portrayal.
If the media keep bashing everyone except the Tories, then I've no doubt the sheep voters will line up to help us achieve the repeated buzzwords.
If however the media do a U-turn and decide that punishing the poor for being poor, especially the disabled, is actually a bad thing (very unlikely) then we may see a shift.
It has nothing to do with leaders or policies anymore. Most people just do what the tabloids tell them to.
Comments
They've never won more than 362 in England at the height of Thatcher and only won more than the current total twice both under Thatcher.
I think a lot of people are forgetting Labour actually increased their seat total in England and their vote share, it was the result in Scotland that left them where they are otherwise they'd be sitting on around 272 seats and an absolutely deadly threat to the Tories.
Fairer for who?
Will it address the imbalance of smaller parties gaining millions of votes and gaining more seats or will it benefit the the governing party which already enjoys an inbuilt advantage over the others?
Thank for explaining her comment
Thanks - I would never have worked all that out!
In that case, I suggest you gather your life savings (and any other money you can get hold of), go down the bookies and stick the lot on the Conservative winning an overall majority at the next election. You can get odds of 6/4, so you’ll be quids in!
Oops, sorry and you're welcome,
No. It will be fairer because it will attempt to have all constituencies with a very similar population.
The country has polarised since then. The northern marginals have gone Labour and the Conservative ones have gone Tory. The seats we used to sit up for in 1979 or 1983 now often have 10000 majorities. The Labour areas are nearly all ones with champagne socialists like Islington, very large immigrant popualtions, or ones that take more than half their income from state spending, employment,, and benefits.
The battle ground will be the 18 seats that changed hands this time and the next rung of Labour marginals. That will expand if UKIP picks up the anti-benefit, anti immigraion and pro defence minded, who are put off by Corbyn rerunning Foot's manifesto.
there's also a catch up coming on 10 years of demographic changes that will reduce Scottish and Welsh and nothern numbers of MPs . The urban seats with 50k electors will go- and the Isle of Wight won't only have one MP for 110k people.
2 seats gained. The Conservatives still on 330. Net result zero change from now.
And the big issue is that Labour still has absolutely no idea how to get their vote in Scotland back. Looking like the SNP just loses as many seats in England as it might gain back in Scotland, and why would a SNP voter possibly switch back ? if you want a soviet style economy, at least you vote for one run by Scots - not from London.
Which pointless because FPTP is inherently unfair in a multi party system. Boundary changes will do nothing except make it easier for the Tories to win.
let's not forget the Tories introducing laws making it harder for Labour to raise funds for their party (how very democratic of the Tories, lol)
Does that even matter with FPTP?
Even with boundary changes, one party could get 3m votes and have 1 MP, whilst another could get 100,000 and have 2 MPs.
Not really. Labour seats in the north are losing voters. Southern seats are gaining population. Its entirely logical . People go to economically successful areas. They leave less successful areas. People who are doing well don't want to pay out what they earn in more and more taxes. People in areas that are dependant on government spending, vote for parties that will give them more benefits, and more state employment . The boundary review, in 2018, needs to catch up with another 10 years of this drift - from Labour counties to Tory ones - and to deal with more local situations where some seats have too few poeple and some too many.
There's also going to be an adjustment to the numbers of MPs for Scotland and Wales. Wales particularly has more seats than its population justifies.
It's still better than Labour having an inbuilt advantage.
For the Tories yes.
There is no difference between Labour having an inbuilt advantage and the Tories having an inbuilt advantage.
Both parties have an established tradition of taking power then seeking to rig the process to their own advantage.
This is about political self-interest, not democracy.
Or unwise war, or major scandal, or divisive leadership coup. Big problems can even grow from smaller problems.
If they were at all interested in fairness, they wouldn't support a system where 3.9 million votes can equate to a single MP.
So far those Tory backbench mp's are behaving themselves but what in a year or two's time?.
UKIP have most likely peaked this year but I think they be around for sometime.
The Tories will go more to the centre in a few years making it harder for Labour.
We have the referendum about EU membership also coming up as well. Labour lost votes to UKIP because they didnt promise one in their manifesto. UKIP seems to be a one issue party and it is likely that once the in/out issue is resolved then voters will switch back to both the conservatives and labour.
To call an election result in 2020 ten weeks after the last one seems to be a bit presumptious and premature. ALOT can happen between now and may 7th 2020
My bet 40-90
I'm a tory voter but I doubt they'll win a majority that big , there's plenty of obstacles along the way and even if they do win a majority I doubt it will be anywhere near that large. Can't really see them winning above 350 seats.
If the media keep bashing everyone except the Tories, then I've no doubt the sheep voters will line up to help us achieve the repeated buzzwords.
If however the media do a U-turn and decide that punishing the poor for being poor, especially the disabled, is actually a bad thing (very unlikely) then we may see a shift.
It has nothing to do with leaders or policies anymore. Most people just do what the tabloids tell them to.
exactly
its the economy stupid
the leftys never get that even tho tony blair proved it to them