So looks like undecideds are coming out in favour of Labour, expect get your vote out to big big tomorrow, and expect Labour ground team to be out in full force in the marginals
You write as though the Conservatives won't bother and just Labour will do it.
Actually, considering the Conservative campaign so far...
So looks like undecideds are coming out in favour of Labour, expect get your vote out to big big tomorrow, and expect Labour ground team to be out in full force in the marginals
Are they - they haven't voted yet!
I would suggest neither we nor the pollsters have a clue how tomorrow will pan out. Too close to call - we could also get some unexpected shocks.
Or last year's Indyref, few if any expected a 10+% poll lead for the No campaign. It was all on a knife edge for weeks. The last few days did indicate a Union majority but not of that magnitude.
Rumours of the exit polls will start to circulate however post 8pm on the internet. You may be able to gauge the mood by 9pm when Sky start their election night coverage too. If Kay Burley looks even more miserable than usual the Tories may be in for a tough night!:D
Or last year's Indyref, few if any expected a 10+% poll lead for the No campaign. It was all on a knife edge for weeks. The last few days did indicate a Union majority but not of that magnitude.
That was mainly down to Labour "getting the vote out"
YouGov's Peter Kellner - Con 284, Lab 263, SNP 48, LD 31, UKIP 2, GRN
How does Kellner have the Tories winning twenty more seats than Labour on the same share of the vote? I always thought Labour were supposed to have the more efficient vote and would be ahead in seats in the event of a tie.
Looks like some of the UKIP vote has strangely gone to Labour! Do UKIPPERS actually know what they're doing.......and why?
Mine has done, and yes I do know what I'm doing Wizzywick.
The imperative is to remove the nasty Conservatives of Cameron & Osborne. The referendum will still come along soon enough without the Tories in power I feel sure. Events will make it have to.
Let's just have a final rundown of the various seat projections made:
The Guardian: Con 273, Lab 273, Lib Dem 27, SNP 52, UKIP 3, Green 1, Others 21
Con alliance 312, Lab alliance 333
Electoral Calculus: Con 281, Lab 276, Lib Dem 18, SNP 52, UKIP 1, Green 1, Others 21
Con alliance 309, Lab alliance 336
Election Forecast: Con 281, Lab 266, Lib Dem 26, SNP 52, UKIP 1, Green 1, Others 23
Con alliance 317, Lab alliance 326
May 2015: Con 273, Lab 268, Lib Dem 28, SNP 56, UKIP 2, Green 1, Others 22
Con alliance 312, Lab alliance 332
Polling Observatory: Con 274, Lab 272, Lib Dem 24, SNP 54, UKIP 2, Green 1, Others 21
Con alliance 309, Lab alliance 334
Elections Etc: Con 289, Lab 257, Lib Dem 26, SNP 53, UKIP 3, Green 1, Others 21
Con alliance 327, Lab alliance 318
YouGov Nowcast: Con 276, Lab 276, Lib Dem 23, SNP 51, UKIP 1, Green 1, Others 22
Con alliance 309, Lab alliance 335
YouGov Forecast: Con 284, Lab 263, Lib Dem 31, SNP 48, UKIP 2, Green 1, Others 21
Con alliance 326, Lab alliance 319
If the Conservatives do retain power, Peter Kellner and Stephen Fisher of Elections Etc will take the plaudits.
If I am reading this correctly, the polls are saying a Con alliance is Con, Lib Dem, DUP & UKIP with a labour alliance just piggy backing off the SNP, PC & SDLP?.
The Yougov poll seems to have the Lib Dems may not lose that bad as some predict in Scotland.
I say Yougov & Elections Etc might be the nearest but I bet there be some nerves before the exit polls.
A few people I've spoken to tonight all seem to think there is going to be a "ballot box swing" to the Conservatives and Cameron throughout General Election Day ahead of us. Falling the wrong side of mere fractions will make enormous differences to the main parties. I'm inclined to think the Tories are going to get at least 25 seats more than Labour and maybe 30 to 40, and that the Lib Dem vote will just about maintain respectability in seat numbers just over about half of the current amount, that Scotland will wipe out Labour almost entirely and that UKIP will get more seats than projected, maybe 4 but could be 6. The Tories could edge up close to 300 but no less than 290.
Cameron will continue as PM until his own side oust him in favour of Theresa May, sooner rather than later. He will try and "bounce" the election result his way on Friday by making a kind of victory speech in all but name.
Neither Cameron or Miliband, and Clegg too are likely to remain party leaders for too much longer in my opinion. We are in for a political clear out after the election result settles down.
Popular vote will see Tories at least 2% or 3% ahead of Labour.
At a guess;
Conservative 34.5%
Labour 32%
Lib Dems 15%
UKIP 13%
Green 3%
Others 2.5%
How about the posters here now place their own popular vote share after all the polls we've endured.
Pollsters have said all along that undecideds almost always break the way decideds already have so if they are breaking for Labour, that would change things a bit.
I said it before. This is all about Scotland. If the shy Labour vote is as high as expected added with tactical voting then all Labour needs to do in order to be the highest party is keep over 20 seats in Scotland.
People expect the swing to the Tories but i'm more inclined to expect SNP converts going back to Labour at the final minute when they realise another five years of Conservatives is reality.
I said it before. This is all about Scotland. If the shy Labour vote is as high as expected added with tactical voting then all Labour needs to do in order to be the highest party is keep over 20 seats in Scotland.
People expect the swing to the Tories but i'm more inclined to expect SNP converts going back to Labour at the final minute when they realise another five years of Conservatives is reality.
I hope that is the case, but dont feel as optimistic though. If labour did hold on to that many seats In Scotland I bet there will be another conspiracy theory doing the rounds about a fix again.
Comments
You write as though the Conservatives won't bother and just Labour will do it.
Actually, considering the Conservative campaign so far...
I disagree.It 's the people who should be terrified.
I would say you could write Cameron's speeches... but it sounds like you already are.
The Guardian: Con 273, Lab 273, Lib Dem 27, SNP 52, UKIP 3, Green 1, Others 21
Con alliance 312, Lab alliance 333
Electoral Calculus: Con 281, Lab 276, Lib Dem 18, SNP 52, UKIP 1, Green 1, Others 21
Con alliance 309, Lab alliance 336
Election Forecast: Con 281, Lab 266, Lib Dem 26, SNP 52, UKIP 1, Green 1, Others 23
Con alliance 317, Lab alliance 326
May 2015: Con 273, Lab 268, Lib Dem 28, SNP 56, UKIP 2, Green 1, Others 22
Con alliance 312, Lab alliance 332
Polling Observatory: Con 274, Lab 272, Lib Dem 24, SNP 54, UKIP 2, Green 1, Others 21
Con alliance 309, Lab alliance 334
Elections Etc: Con 289, Lab 257, Lib Dem 26, SNP 53, UKIP 3, Green 1, Others 21
Con alliance 327, Lab alliance 318
YouGov Nowcast: Con 276, Lab 276, Lib Dem 23, SNP 51, UKIP 1, Green 1, Others 22
Con alliance 309, Lab alliance 335
YouGov Forecast: Con 284, Lab 263, Lib Dem 31, SNP 48, UKIP 2, Green 1, Others 21
Con alliance 326, Lab alliance 319
If the Conservatives do retain power, Peter Kellner and Stephen Fisher of Elections Etc will take the plaudits.
10% could stop the SNP winning a lot of seats!
Are they - they haven't voted yet!
I would suggest neither we nor the pollsters have a clue how tomorrow will pan out. Too close to call - we could also get some unexpected shocks.
I am young enough to remember 1992!
Apparently half the entire Labour Party membership live in London now - which speaks volumes.
Like Scotland London may also be skewing the national data - no point in Labour getting more votes where it won't deliver more seats
Or last year's Indyref, few if any expected a 10+% poll lead for the No campaign. It was all on a knife edge for weeks. The last few days did indicate a Union majority but not of that magnitude.
Rumours of the exit polls will start to circulate however post 8pm on the internet. You may be able to gauge the mood by 9pm when Sky start their election night coverage too. If Kay Burley looks even more miserable than usual the Tories may be in for a tough night!:D
That was mainly down to Labour "getting the vote out"
How does Kellner have the Tories winning twenty more seats than Labour on the same share of the vote? I always thought Labour were supposed to have the more efficient vote and would be ahead in seats in the event of a tie.
The imperative is to remove the nasty Conservatives of Cameron & Osborne. The referendum will still come along soon enough without the Tories in power I feel sure. Events will make it have to.
Not really. Many Labour voters voted yes. Conversely, many middle class SNP constituencies voted 60/40 against independence.
The figures don't add up . Labour don't have an alliance with the SNP according to Red Ed.
Are you suggesting that both parties wouldn't vote down a Cameron Queen's Speech?
They would vote against it even if they agreed with everything. That's the sort of people they are.
Another non-post from you. You've got quite the track record.
Funny to see the Tory true believers beginning to seethe already though.
The Yougov poll seems to have the Lib Dems may not lose that bad as some predict in Scotland.
I say Yougov & Elections Etc might be the nearest but I bet there be some nerves before the exit polls.
Cameron will continue as PM until his own side oust him in favour of Theresa May, sooner rather than later. He will try and "bounce" the election result his way on Friday by making a kind of victory speech in all but name.
Neither Cameron or Miliband, and Clegg too are likely to remain party leaders for too much longer in my opinion. We are in for a political clear out after the election result settles down.
Popular vote will see Tories at least 2% or 3% ahead of Labour.
At a guess;
Conservative 34.5%
Labour 32%
Lib Dems 15%
UKIP 13%
Green 3%
Others 2.5%
How about the posters here now place their own popular vote share after all the polls we've endured.
Not sure if this is already on here but a survation poll has undecideds breaking 31% for Labour 23%Tory.
People expect the swing to the Tories but i'm more inclined to expect SNP converts going back to Labour at the final minute when they realise another five years of Conservatives is reality.
I hope that is the case, but dont feel as optimistic though. If labour did hold on to that many seats In Scotland I bet there will be another conspiracy theory doing the rounds about a fix again.
There will be trouble at Hackney polling stations because so many have been denied their votes due to the incompetence of the Council there.