How do you solve a problem like an unpredictable bottom 2?

My assessment featuring my opinions which you are free to disagree with.

Performance order again was VERY interesting last night, and could very reasonably have been the actual voting order at present:

First - Matt
Second - Cher
Third - One Direction
Fourth - Rebecca

Which is most people's expectations of the Top 4, and probably even the correct order.

Fifth - Mary (Just outside the Big 4, could possibly break it, if any above falter)
Sixth - Paije (Just always a few votes between either 'safe' or bottom 2)
Seventh - Wagner
Eighth - Katie.

Anyway, they couldn't have made it any clearer that they STILL want Katie, throwing the kitchen sink at her staying by having her on last for the second time while some haven't been last once yet. It's not regarded as the 'pimp' spot for nothing, and if I remember correctly the last time Katie escaped Bottom 2 was when she was last with the jungle book song.
Given she actually delivered a good vocal, had the judges falling over themselves to praise her (bar Dannii who is still always on the money with her comments), and anyone who heard Louis FURIOUSLY defending Katie to a caller on Xtra Factor, knows that she is well on course to be saved a record fifth time if she falls in the bottom 2.

She shouldn't be there though, if she can't get through safely after ALL that - judges praise, pimp slot, good singing, Louis defending her to the hilt then surely there can be no further damning indictment that the public just do not get this girl for one reason or another, if she can't escape bottom 2 even after that, then she HAS to go, they'll have to accept they tried their best but it didn't work, I think she will be safe though, they'll desperately be hoping she will be, Cowell may as well have waved a 'vote for Katie' flag.

Which brings us to the question, just who exactly will be in the bottom 2 if Katie doesn't take up her regular space?

I absolutely cannot see it being Wagner, he has gained a lot of support here after what Cheryl said Cheryl bringing up tabloid speculation could have massively, massively backfired for her because i think Wagner probably was due a place in the bottom 2 tonight, but if anything she's just increased his chances massively and he probably got the most votes he ever has, big mistake from the 'sweetheart' there and I really think it could open up a shock spot for one of her girls.

So if bookies joint favourites Katie and Wagner are not occupying a place who will?

Paije? - Paije on balance I think was the best performance of the night, and if he can survive being shoved on first twice then his spot in the second half tonight should guarantee his place for another week, the revelation that he was an extra in HP can only help his cause too, he's easier for the public to connect with because he's always smiling, has upbeat songs a lot of the time and shows his personality, something which Dannii failed to help Aiden to do.

Mary? - Mary is my most unpredictable contestant, exactly how big is her fanbase? She supposedly has the 'whole of Ireland' behind her, but does she, how many people who like her, actually pick up the phone and vote for her? I think she has a pretty sizeable fanbase as she survived her most terrible week by far 'There You'll Be'. Aside from 'Could It Be Magic' she does the same old performances each week, and while very good, she is not likely to pick up any floating voters. So I can never judge how well Mary can do, she has the potential to break the big 4 or she could fall this week, but I think there could be a bigger shock than Mary in the bottom 2.

Rebecca? - I really do believe she could be a shock bottom 2 tonight. Cheryl massively shot her in the foot with the Wagner thing and also continuing to give her BORING, stand at the mike songs. Not to mention it was easily her worst vocal so far, I really do see Rebecca in trouble tonight after that and even if she does get through, I do think it will be her now who is the most likely to miss out on the top 3. If you believe our voting leaker here, they only had Rebecca coming in as FOURTH last week even after going last with Elton's most famous song, I don't think her fanbase at the moment is big enough to see her through to the final 3. If she makes it through this week she desperately NEEDS to try something different, even Leona switched things up a bit eventually by doing Lady Marmalade and Could It Be Magic, she is coming across as a one trick pony. The thing is, I think she could be more than capable of doing an uptempo and adding a bit of movement, she is becoming extremely samey and she and Cheryl may well get a rude wake up call tonight.

One Direction? - Kudos to Dannii for picking up on Zain's complete inability to do anything, he just always looks so lost and vacant! Even just doing backing vocals, Cowell must have realised to give up on letting him sing because he always seems to let the others down. She was a right to give him a kick up the backside but like Cheryl, doing it on air was perhaps not the wisest decision. One Direction's army of fans who probably don't always actually vote will probably do so now because like 'HOW DARE DANNII PICK ON POOR GORGEOUS, FIT BOY ZAIN LIKE THAT! I WANNA GIVE HIM CUDDLEZ.' Or something like that. Either way they will be safe I think, unless Cowell is happy for them to drop in the bottom 2 at some stage to try and get rid of the 'we have never had a winner in the bottom 2' tag, but nah I think they're safe this week.

Cher? - Don't know what to make of this one either, Cowell was unusually harsh to Cher, a ploy to get people voting as her votes have been lower than anticipated - maybe? It was just a bit bizarre. He was pretty much saying we only have you to come on and rap each week with the big production numbers to get the kiddies excited and that will have sent them to sleep. I personally did not like what she did to the song, I think she over performed it and I really didn't like her warbling towards the end. Will she be safe? Probably, she's unlikely to have made any new fans with that performance particularly from those who love the original, but I think she did enough to survive another week, although the early performance slot, didn't really do her any favours, even Cher has been pushed aside in favour of saving Katie, as I really expected if any girl to go last it would be Cher again. She will probably be safe but I couldn't say for absolute certain, put it this way if Cheryl has two girls in the bottom 2, I wouldn't expect either to be Katie.

Matt? - Where to start? He is my favourite but I actually think he started off AWFULLY those vocals sounded really harsh and alien to Matt's usual soothing tone, I think the whole performance was just a bit too try hard, with the dancers and the rough and ready look. Kudos to Dannii and Matt for taking a risk and showing he can do the big numbers but I'm undecided whether they pulled it off or not. It WAS good to see another side to Matt and towards the end it did sound really, really good and I started to enjoy it but overall not my favourite performance from him. Will he be safe? Yes, I think so. Matt has a big fanbase and will recognise he took a risk this week that may pay off in terms of swinging some floating votes or result in a drop of votes alienated by his style of singing this week. They will also not have let it bypass them he was in the danger slot and will vote accordingly, knowing this is probably the first week he definitely can not be regarded as 100% safe. I think his fans will see him through they won't fall into the complacency trap.

So bottom 2 - I'm going to have to go with Rebecca, I think she's in serious danger and then I can't decide between Mary,Katie,Cher and Paije. Mary stuck to what her fanbase know her and love her for and Cher may well have alienated voters who love her for her rap, I think 'Operation Save Katie' should have worked, Wagner will have got a big boost and it's impossible to guess how many people have been voting for him week on week, if anything I think his 'fanbase' is actually growing. Paije I would like to think is safe, he ruddy well should be but if Katie was to leapfrog anyone in the voting, I can only see her catching up as far as Paije, which may drop him closer to danger plus I don't think Dannii milked the 'no one is safe so vote for my act' as much as the other judges did, I really hope he's safe though and high up the voting.

Rebecca vs Mary or Cher or Paije. I think this is the most unpredictable bottom 2, X factor has seen in a long time, and it really could be anyone, I get a strong feeling of a VERY GOOD bottom 2 tonight, that will see tears and tantrums from the judges, anything involving 2 from the 4 I picked will be VERY interesting indeed, they may well *gasp* have to go on the sing off tonight!

So yeah even after analysing it a bit, I still can't decide, I don't think anyone will surprise me being in the bottom 2 tonight!