Ebola could reach 1.4 million cases by January and may become a constant presence in West Africa.
Yet another set of ominous projections about the Ebola epidemic in West Africa was released Tuesday, in a report from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention that gave worst- and best-case estimates for Liberia and Sierra Leone based on computer modeling.
In the worst-case scenario, Liberia and Sierra Leone could have 21,000 cases of Ebola by Sept. 30 and 1.4 million cases by Jan. 20 if the disease keeps following its current trajectory, without effective methods to contain it. These figures take into account the fact that many cases go undetected, and estimate that there are actually 2.5 times as many as reported.
The W.H.O. report also, for the first time, raised the possibility that the disease would not be stopped but would become endemic in West Africa, meaning that it could become a constant presence there. The report from the C.D.C. did not discuss that possibility, but it is something that health officials have feared all along, and the reason they say help is needed so quickly.
If it's in the US it's almost certain to be in the UK too - we have far more flights and visitors from west Africa. That one protective facility for the entire UK in Hampstead is going to get busy. Doubt the NHS would catch cases anyway - any case would probably be stuck in A&E for six hours before seeing a tired doctor who assumes it's a cold
And perfect timing for the autumn flu season. Does that person sneezing and coughing opposite you on the tube have a common cold - or Ebola.
Sorry people - but it's time to worry. The confirmed case first went to hospital on 20th Sept apparently with flu symptoms but was sent home. They have been out and about in Dallas for nearly two weeks since arriving from Liberia.
Yup, and we've only got 2 beds in one room in a hospital in London! :eek:
However it is not exactly difficult to implement emergency isolation procedures in other designated hospitals if the need arises. There will already be emergency plans in place in case such a situation arises.....as there is for all potential major disasters. Many emergency and medical personnel have on-going specialist training to deal with potential threats, and have specialist equipment on stand-by.
However it is not exactly difficult to implement emergency isolation procedures in other designated hospitals if the need arises. There will already be emergency plans in place in case such a situation arises.....as there is for all potential major disasters. Many emergency and medical personnel have on-going specialist training to deal with potential threats, and have specialist equipment on stand-by.
This is one of the more reassuring (while still being realistic) things I've read, thank you.
Strange, this is a big news story you'd have thought, its trending in the USA , but it wasn't even mentioned by Sky in their headlines summary just now.
This is one of the more reassuring (while still being realistic) things I've read, thank you.
If it helps, many of the emergency services undertake specialist (and in 'realistic' settings) training alongside each other so as to prepare for major emergencies whether on a localised or a national scale. All of these organisations have specialist procedures already laid down and will have buildings already identified which can be turned into isolation areas if required. There is really no need to have hundreds of fully equipped and staffed isolation beds sitting in idleness 'just in case' - what is needed is to have the systems in place to ensure that if the need arises, then the procedures can be implemented swiftly with trained staff.
I think the worry for the US authorities will be whether this patient has infected anyone else in the US before being admitted. They wouldn't know for a week or two apparently. They're working to identify everyone he came into contact with. Hopefully they will find them all.
I think the worry for the US authorities will be whether this patient has infected anyone else in the US before being admitted. They wouldn't know for a week or two apparently. They're working to identify everyone he came into contact with. Hopefully they will find them all.
He arrived in the US on 20th, fell ill, went to the ER on 26th where we was eventually placed in isolation, then sent home despite having told them he had returned recently from Liberia, returned to hospital on 28th, tested for Ebola and confirmed today.
So he was showing symptoms in a busy Dallas ER five days ago - infectious - and was treated and sent home for two days.
Think of the patients, receptionists, triage nurses and more he came across before seeing a doctor. How many other people did those nurses treat.
And that's before you think of the up to 300 people on the two different flights he took from Monrovia to the US or people he came across in transit or who used the same toilet. He is rumoured to have transited via a European airport but the CDC won't say what his flight numbers were.
The ability of an American hospital to contain and treat ebola is far beyond the ability of a hospital in Monrovia or some clinic in rural Africa. I wouldn't be too worried. Just wash your hands and don't eat half-rotted dead jungle animals.
The ability of an American hospital to contain and treat ebola is far beyond the ability of a hospital in Monrovia or some clinic in rural Africa. I wouldn't be too worried. Just wash your hands and don't eat half-rotted dead jungle animals.
I agree - when they know you have Ebola. It starts off symptom wise being like getting a cold or flu (fever, sore throat, headache, sore limbs) - half the population of the UK will probably catch a cold in the next month as it's close to peak season. Would we detect the odd case of Ebola turning up?
The problem is you can have infected several people before you are diagnosed - he was in hospital 5 days ago and was sent home before returning. So lots of people were potentially exposed in a public ER facility days ago - and that's just there.
PS seems the patient most likely transited from Monrovia via Brussels and Washington Dulles on the way to Dulles. So that's three planes he would have been on.
He was in Dallas for 10 days before his condition was confirmed - and was discharged from his first hospital visit while showing symptoms 4 days ago before returning again 48 hours ago where they tested him for Ebola (even though on his original visit he had apparently told them he had just come from Liberia). So he would have spent time in a busy ER for hours while infectious on his first visit encountering nurses, receptionists and patients - who would then have contact with other patients/visitors/family members who would then be moved to wards in said hospital or have left. Some may have kids - who would of course be going to school daily.
He also travelled from Liberia on trip surely lasting 20+ hours on 3 planes via Brussels, Washington and Dulles - that's probably 100 people on each flight who used the same toilet as him.
Sorry - just pointing out the blindingly obvious. Sweat/sneezes/coughs/urine/saliva etc - all can transmit Ebola as its contained in bodily fluids.
Comments
What, fly an X-Wing along a trench and fire a missile into an exhaust vent the size of a womp-rat?
Sadly, it may come to that.
Enlighten us
An American maverick will save the world
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/24/health/ebola-cases-could-reach-14-million-in-4-months-cdc-estimates.html?_r=1
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-29437070
And perfect timing for the autumn flu season. Does that person sneezing and coughing opposite you on the tube have a common cold - or Ebola.
Sorry people - but it's time to worry. The confirmed case first went to hospital on 20th Sept apparently with flu symptoms but was sent home. They have been out and about in Dallas for nearly two weeks since arriving from Liberia.
Now that means Paris, Frankfurt or most likely Heathrow.
However it is not exactly difficult to implement emergency isolation procedures in other designated hospitals if the need arises. There will already be emergency plans in place in case such a situation arises.....as there is for all potential major disasters. Many emergency and medical personnel have on-going specialist training to deal with potential threats, and have specialist equipment on stand-by.
This is one of the more reassuring (while still being realistic) things I've read, thank you.
If it helps, many of the emergency services undertake specialist (and in 'realistic' settings) training alongside each other so as to prepare for major emergencies whether on a localised or a national scale. All of these organisations have specialist procedures already laid down and will have buildings already identified which can be turned into isolation areas if required. There is really no need to have hundreds of fully equipped and staffed isolation beds sitting in idleness 'just in case' - what is needed is to have the systems in place to ensure that if the need arises, then the procedures can be implemented swiftly with trained staff.
He arrived in the US on 20th, fell ill, went to the ER on 26th where we was eventually placed in isolation, then sent home despite having told them he had returned recently from Liberia, returned to hospital on 28th, tested for Ebola and confirmed today.
So he was showing symptoms in a busy Dallas ER five days ago - infectious - and was treated and sent home for two days.
Think of the patients, receptionists, triage nurses and more he came across before seeing a doctor. How many other people did those nurses treat.
And that's before you think of the up to 300 people on the two different flights he took from Monrovia to the US or people he came across in transit or who used the same toilet. He is rumoured to have transited via a European airport but the CDC won't say what his flight numbers were.
On a more positive note though lessons will have been learned.
I agree - when they know you have Ebola. It starts off symptom wise being like getting a cold or flu (fever, sore throat, headache, sore limbs) - half the population of the UK will probably catch a cold in the next month as it's close to peak season. Would we detect the odd case of Ebola turning up?
The problem is you can have infected several people before you are diagnosed - he was in hospital 5 days ago and was sent home before returning. So lots of people were potentially exposed in a public ER facility days ago - and that's just there.
PS seems the patient most likely transited from Monrovia via Brussels and Washington Dulles on the way to Dulles. So that's three planes he would have been on.
http://www.redstate.com/2014/09/30/the-ebola-patient-and-a-call-to-my-show/
I agree.
Only 18 people - you are having a larf!
He was in Dallas for 10 days before his condition was confirmed - and was discharged from his first hospital visit while showing symptoms 4 days ago before returning again 48 hours ago where they tested him for Ebola (even though on his original visit he had apparently told them he had just come from Liberia). So he would have spent time in a busy ER for hours while infectious on his first visit encountering nurses, receptionists and patients - who would then have contact with other patients/visitors/family members who would then be moved to wards in said hospital or have left. Some may have kids - who would of course be going to school daily.
He also travelled from Liberia on trip surely lasting 20+ hours on 3 planes via Brussels, Washington and Dulles - that's probably 100 people on each flight who used the same toilet as him.
Sorry - just pointing out the blindingly obvious. Sweat/sneezes/coughs/urine/saliva etc - all can transmit Ebola as its contained in bodily fluids.