When turnout goes up at the next election Reckless should be finished.
I'm not so sure. The Conservatives threw everything at their campaign and probably a lot more than they will at the General Election. In contrast, as a seat they now hold, UKIP will throw a lot of energy into retaining the seat. I don't think it's going to be as easy as the Conservatives think.
And that Labour weren't even in the running should have them more worried than they currently seem to be. After 4 years of a largely unpopular government, the opposition should be polling more strongly in a seat they held until 4 years ago. It should have been them, not UKIP challenging for that seat.
But mainly the point I want to make is that to dismiss the UKIP wins as a protest vote is very dangerous.
After years of this country rising in status and image throughout the world, thanks to the gullible British public we can look forward to once again being the laughing stock of the western world. I am saddened by what is happening.
Fear not, come May you'll have Nigel representing you.
And that Labour weren't even in the running should have them more worried than they currently seem to be. After 4 years of a largely unpopular government, the opposition should be polling more strongly in a seat they held until 4 years ago. It should have been them, not UKIP challenging for that seat.
very true - it kinda makes you wonder where they think their surge in support is going to come from..
Peoples army? Oh please, stop it, this isnt the comedy forum.
An incumbent MP was reelected on a protest vote after an opportunist defection, on a turnout much down on a general election.
We shall see. I think you may be slightly underestimating the electorate's loathing for the usual suspects.
Close to half – 44 per cent – of Britain’s voters do not plan to vote for the same party as they did in 2010, according to a new Times data analysis.
The analysis, using October polling of voter intention carried out by YouGov, reveals a highly fluid situation in the wake of the collapse in Liberal Democrat support and the rise of Ukip.
The Times Data Team’s methodology is here.
Professor David Denver, author of Elections and Voters in Britain, said: “This level of voter turnover is very unusual – it’s much, much bigger than you would normally get.”
Sir David Butler, emeritus professor at Nuffield College, Oxford, and co-inventor of the “swingometer”, told Red Box: “I have been tracking elections since the 1950s and the volatility of voters is greater than ever before.
“I have a horrible feeling that something fundamental is happening. I have never felt so uncertain about predicting elections as I do now.”
After years of this country rising in status and image throughout the world, thanks to the gullible British public we can look forward to once again being the laughing stock of the western world. I am saddened by what is happening.
Rather than blaming the "gullible British public" why aren't you saddened by the state of politics in this country that has resulted in the public feeling no one speaks for them other than one minority party? Because isn't that the real problem here?
Labour and the Tories have had their fingers in their ears for years shouting "immigration and europe isn't a problem, this is just a protest vote" and it's only now that they've finally realised that oh crap.. actually maybe it IS a problem.. at least in the eyes of the people we were meant to be representing for all these years. They're out of touch. Be sad about that. UKIP are simply filling a huge void that has been left vacant by the main parties.
An incumbent MP was reelected on a protest vote after an opportunist defection, on a turnout much down on a general election.
The term "protest vote" is insulting to voters because it tends to suggest that voters simply walked into the polling stations and put a tick next to a party purely to protest and not because they believe in any of that parties policies or feel that party speaks for them. This is not the situation with UKIP. The attendance of their town hall meetings shows that. What should concern Labour and the Tories is when potential UKIP voters are stopped and asked about their decision they more often than not have a very clear reason for voting UKIP.
If the main parties are thinking that UKIP winning the EU elections and winning by elections is simply voters giving them a "bloody nose" and they'll all come back in six months.. I think they may be in for a rude awakening. imho the demographic of people who appear most interested in UKIP are not the type that are going to switch and change their votes on a whim. We're talking voters who have been extremely loyal for years who may now be lost for years.
well done ukip. keep sticking to the complacent established parties. maybe one day they may learn to listen to what the voting public actually want, and act on this.
what is interesting to note (if it hasn't already been mentioned), is:
tory vote share down 14%
labour vote share down 12%
lib dem vote share down 16%
so it looks like ukip are taking votes from all 3 parties. wonder if some MPs' from labour marginals are a bit more nervous this morning.:D
The term "protest vote" is insulting to voters because it tends to suggest that voters simply walked into the polling stations and put a tick next to a party purely to protest and not because they believe in any of that parties policies or feel that party speaks for them. This is not the situation with UKIP. The attendance of their town hall meetings shows that. What should concern Labour and the Tories is when potential UKIP voters are stopped and asked about their decision they more often than not have a very clear reason for voting UKIP.
If the main parties are thinking that UKIP winning the EU elections and winning by elections is simply voters giving them a "bloody nose" and they'll all come back in six months.. I think they may be in for a rude awakening. imho the demographic of people who appear most interested in UKIP are not the type that are going to switch and change their votes on a whim. We're talking voters who have been extremely loyal for years who may now be lost for years.
I am not sure the evidence is there that voters will not come back to the main parties, in fact a poll done by Ashcroft showed that Reckless will lose the seat at the GE. That does not mean that anyone should be complacent, the main parties will have to fight hard for every vote.
I think another week of campaigning would have resulted in the margin being narrower, the polls were predicting most of the way through the campaign a lead of 15% and it turned put to be less than half of that. In a GE campaign Farage cannot be everywhere and their policies still appear to be flaky a lot of unseasoned candidates may be hard to control.
And this is why stupid people shouldn't be allowed to vote. Still when he continues to prove to be useless, he'll lose the seat at the GE.
I am so ashamed of my constituency right now. Not in my name.
Democracy and universal suffrage means that even the stupidest person has a say in how the country is run. To define it otherwise means that of course one has to define stupid and therein lies a host of problems, not least who does the defining.
And this is why stupid people shouldn't be allowed to vote. Still when he continues to prove to be useless, he'll lose the seat at the GE.
I am so ashamed of my constituency right now. Not in my name.
Same MP, wearing different colours. He'll probably be just as useless as before, but the people have had their protest. The sad thing is, he is probably no better and no worse than any of the other candidates, that's what we should be worrying about.
I wouldn't feel too bad about it.
Democracy and universal suffrage means that even the stupidest person has a say in how the country is run. To define it otherwise means that of course one has to define stupid and therein lies a host of problems, not least who does the defining.
For once I agree whole heartedly with you. The fact that everyone has a vote n the UK is something millions of people elsewhere are denied and once we decide that one persons voice should not be heard then it sers us on a slippery slope.
Any votes cast the less and the majority of the electorate could be effectively seen as a vote against all candidates - going by Tory logic on industrial action ballots - thus implying the candidate with the highest number of votes has no mandate to take up their seat.
Democracy and universal suffrage means that even the stupidest person has a say in how the country is run. To define it otherwise means that of course one has to define stupid and therein lies a host of problems, not least who does the defining.
It was a turn of phrase more than anything serious!
The logic does baffle for me though. Sure vote for a different UKIP candidate, but to vote for the same guy who was useless as a Tory MP when you hate the Tories and thought the local government were rubbish MAKES NO SENSE!
If you want to protest vote, then vote for someone harmless like the Greens.
The only reason I can think for ignoring all those things and voting UKIP is because you support the majority of their policies, but no one is going to admit that because it would suggest that you have some quite questionable views. So what you do is you say you're doing it as a protest vote, which doesn't wash because a protest vote doesn't **** you over.
Jeez at least have some integrity and say you're voting UKIP because that's what you believe in rather than pretending it's for another reason. That would be hiding your true intentions and that is exactly what people hate politicians for.
For once I agree whole heartedly with you. The fact that everyone has a vote n the UK is something millions of people elsewhere are denied and once we decide that one persons voice should not be heard then it sers us on a slippery slope.
Comments
Protest vote?
You're still clinging onto that one then I see!
May I remind you this was UKIPs 271st most winnable seat at Cameron promised to throw the kitchen sink at it.
This protest has been going on for a long time don't you think!?
Laughable.
You got that bit right:D
Ask yourself why...
Im sure i saw this in the excuses thread lol
What Labour defeats - they won the only by-election where they were up against Ukip.
Turnout going up? I doubt it, it'll probably be around 25-30%
It will be around 70%.
I'm not so sure. The Conservatives threw everything at their campaign and probably a lot more than they will at the General Election. In contrast, as a seat they now hold, UKIP will throw a lot of energy into retaining the seat. I don't think it's going to be as easy as the Conservatives think.
And that Labour weren't even in the running should have them more worried than they currently seem to be. After 4 years of a largely unpopular government, the opposition should be polling more strongly in a seat they held until 4 years ago. It should have been them, not UKIP challenging for that seat.
But mainly the point I want to make is that to dismiss the UKIP wins as a protest vote is very dangerous.
Fear not, come May you'll have Nigel representing you.
very true - it kinda makes you wonder where they think their surge in support is going to come from..
We shall see. I think you may be slightly underestimating the electorate's loathing for the usual suspects.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/redbox/topic/the-road-to-2015-the-data/voters-on-the-move-polls-reveal-unprecedented-shifts-in-party-allegiance
Rather than blaming the "gullible British public" why aren't you saddened by the state of politics in this country that has resulted in the public feeling no one speaks for them other than one minority party? Because isn't that the real problem here?
Labour and the Tories have had their fingers in their ears for years shouting "immigration and europe isn't a problem, this is just a protest vote" and it's only now that they've finally realised that oh crap.. actually maybe it IS a problem.. at least in the eyes of the people we were meant to be representing for all these years. They're out of touch. Be sad about that. UKIP are simply filling a huge void that has been left vacant by the main parties.
That extrapolates to UKIP increasing their majority to over 4,000.
The term "protest vote" is insulting to voters because it tends to suggest that voters simply walked into the polling stations and put a tick next to a party purely to protest and not because they believe in any of that parties policies or feel that party speaks for them. This is not the situation with UKIP. The attendance of their town hall meetings shows that. What should concern Labour and the Tories is when potential UKIP voters are stopped and asked about their decision they more often than not have a very clear reason for voting UKIP.
If the main parties are thinking that UKIP winning the EU elections and winning by elections is simply voters giving them a "bloody nose" and they'll all come back in six months.. I think they may be in for a rude awakening. imho the demographic of people who appear most interested in UKIP are not the type that are going to switch and change their votes on a whim. We're talking voters who have been extremely loyal for years who may now be lost for years.
what is interesting to note (if it hasn't already been mentioned), is:
tory vote share down 14%
labour vote share down 12%
lib dem vote share down 16%
so it looks like ukip are taking votes from all 3 parties. wonder if some MPs' from labour marginals are a bit more nervous this morning.:D
And this is why stupid people shouldn't be allowed to vote. Still when he continues to prove to be useless, he'll lose the seat at the GE.
I am so ashamed of my constituency right now. Not in my name.
I am not sure the evidence is there that voters will not come back to the main parties, in fact a poll done by Ashcroft showed that Reckless will lose the seat at the GE. That does not mean that anyone should be complacent, the main parties will have to fight hard for every vote.
I think another week of campaigning would have resulted in the margin being narrower, the polls were predicting most of the way through the campaign a lead of 15% and it turned put to be less than half of that. In a GE campaign Farage cannot be everywhere and their policies still appear to be flaky a lot of unseasoned candidates may be hard to control.
Democracy and universal suffrage means that even the stupidest person has a say in how the country is run. To define it otherwise means that of course one has to define stupid and therein lies a host of problems, not least who does the defining.
Same MP, wearing different colours. He'll probably be just as useless as before, but the people have had their protest. The sad thing is, he is probably no better and no worse than any of the other candidates, that's what we should be worrying about.
I wouldn't feel too bad about it.
This is why the mainstream parties need (and are getting) a solid kick in the ****. No concept of democracy and an utter contempt for the electorate.
For once I agree whole heartedly with you. The fact that everyone has a vote n the UK is something millions of people elsewhere are denied and once we decide that one persons voice should not be heard then it sers us on a slippery slope.
Any votes cast the less and the majority of the electorate could be effectively seen as a vote against all candidates - going by Tory logic on industrial action ballots - thus implying the candidate with the highest number of votes has no mandate to take up their seat.
It was a turn of phrase more than anything serious!
The logic does baffle for me though. Sure vote for a different UKIP candidate, but to vote for the same guy who was useless as a Tory MP when you hate the Tories and thought the local government were rubbish MAKES NO SENSE!
If you want to protest vote, then vote for someone harmless like the Greens.
The only reason I can think for ignoring all those things and voting UKIP is because you support the majority of their policies, but no one is going to admit that because it would suggest that you have some quite questionable views. So what you do is you say you're doing it as a protest vote, which doesn't wash because a protest vote doesn't **** you over.
Jeez at least have some integrity and say you're voting UKIP because that's what you believe in rather than pretending it's for another reason. That would be hiding your true intentions and that is exactly what people hate politicians for.
Well there's a thing and I thank you.