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The death of the Libdems?
onecitizen
Posts: 5,042 Forum Member
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Are we seeing the end for the Liberal Democrats as a serious political force ?http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/03/two-polls-put-the-tories-ahead-while-the-lib-dems-hit-a-25-year-low/
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No, just a temporary fall from grace. They'll bounce back eventually, but could take some time.
32 years ago people said the same about the Labour Party
They always bounce back. There is a strong Liberal tradition in the UK.
If they have a total wipe out , they wont be back for a generation. A wipe out for them is very probable
I agree with this.
The Lib Dems have an identity crisis. No one really knows what their core principles are and even if they can be identified there are elements that sit comfortably with the Tories and others that sit well with Labour. They're a non-party in many ways and just seen as a watered-down version of either the Right or the Left, though paradoxically they can't be seen as both.
People know what the Greens' philosophy is as they do UKIP's and as such each of those parties have identities.
I suspect what will happen is that the further we move towards a multi-party system, with an increasing chance of PR being eventually implemented, the Lib Dems will diminish to a very minor party in terms of support.
The Tories in Scotland still haven't really recovered from 1997's wipe out in Scotland. 1 mp and almost all their MSP's are list MSP's via the list under PR. So it could be a loooong time.
So, the LibDems (by this definition) are not representing people. And they have little chance of having that opportunity until the public trust them again.
So absolutely the LibDems need new faces. Lots of new faces! Then they have to try and win peoples trust. That'll take a long time.
Labour get in with a majority, and expect a very significant swing back.
Conservatives get in propped up by UKIP, and the latter will implode, especially in the aftermath of an 'out' EU vote, which will cause considerable pain for millions of voters, and expect a very significant swing back. Their lack of any real principles outside immigration and the EU (witness Farage's pathetic flip-flopping over the NHS as a prime example of this) will be exposed in the event of any powers, even supply and confidence.
Conservatives get in propped up by the LDs again, and that's it for them. The next parliament is crunch time in a number of areas -- and whomever is in is going to suffer.
We're a lot more fickle this time around and when the reality check (as we will see thanks to Labour confessing not able to fufill thier promises, once in power) sets in, the Libdems will come back very quickly by 2025.
Absolutely -- Labour supporters, and fickle Lib/Lab swing voters in particular are in for a very nasty shock if their party gets in. The next parliament is where austerity starts to be felt by a lot of people. It is to be expected that Con supporters won't have a problem with this, but Labour supporters are going to be horrified.
UKIP are by no means the alternative to this, and unless a brand-new Left of centre party appears the LDs are the only place for voters to go once they work out the score.
That is a good point, do you think a new and more credible leader could see the Libdems make a comeback after the next election, or is the damage irreparable ?
Yes its irredeemable because Clegg is associated with Tories and Tuition fees . If they had of been smart they should have dumped Clegg and the Tory coalition a year ago , and rebuilt their tarnish image , its simply to late to salvage anything from disastrous decisions over this past 5 years.
It will take time for them to come back from this, but they are far from finished.
Why? Do you really want to see a return to two-party politics? Or do you see UKIP as being the new third party?
The Liberal Democrats only formed in 1988. They are not the Liberal Party.
I hope for one we don't, we've had the same two parties in power since the 1920's and we're still in crises.
They would need to start by recovering in local government. That could happen quite quickly if they are in opposition to an unpopular government.
I can only conclude that the party in Government makes no difference (presumably because its the same old senior civil servants that take all the decisions, not the MPs/cabinet). Perhaps we should get rid of the Commons/Lords systems and elect the civil servants instead? Get completely fresh blood in every few years?