Future surge in the death rate inevitable?

Phoenixbliss · 30/08/10 - 05:59

Its a wonderful think that we are finding better treatments for many conditions keeping people alive for longer.In the UK the number of deaths is declining gradually each year.All of this is welcome but am I right in thinking that at some future point there will have to be a surge ,even if itstemporary , in the death rate?

What I mean is all the people who would have died say aged 70 ish living nearer to say 87 at some point their later deaths will have to show up in the statistics?Its statistically impossible for the death rate to continiously go down non stop?Wont the welcome fall in death rates now mean that when those same people die say 20 years later there will have to be an increase in the death rate ,even if that is just a transitional statistical phenomenen while the demographics readjust them selves.Its a technical statistical question as well as a comment on biological inevitability.Can anyone confirm my understanding is correct?

Nesta Robbins · 30/08/10 - 06:58

Well with giant inroads made into improving health in the last 100 years, the current older generation are living longer, but if the rates of obesity related deaths such as diabetes and heart disease continue to increase at an alarming rate in the middle aged and young, then yes pretty soon there'll be a surge.

williammur · 30/08/10 - 08:26

Horrible thing to say but in the future our planet wont be able to sustain the amount of people on it. Something will have to give. Be that limiting couples to one child would eventually bring the world population down.

I can't remember the exact figures but for some reason 12 Billion sticks out as the figure that the world could support. It wont be long until we get there,

So, I believe at some point in the future a surge in deaths would be err.... helpful

. Not a nice thing to say but we can't keep breeding like this.

4pounds64 · 30/08/10 - 11:25

I would say that I have the same understanding as you, so yes you're right

Sharon87 · 30/08/10 - 11:42

I agree as well. this planet can't support many more people! It would be more economical if more people die (I know, sounds horrible), but those ones that need constant medical care, and then you get people who want to die, and aren't allowed, but the NHS is paying for them to live when they don't want to! Madness, this world is a bit mad in my opinion lol.

If people live longer then they may have to increase pension age, meaning there are more people looking for jobs, meaning higher unemployment. I would prefer to die before I'm 80, maybe 75, so I can still enjoy retirement, but not get so old I can't do anything!

jabegy · 30/08/10 - 12:47

Sharon87 wrote: »

I would prefer to die before I'm 80, maybe 75, so I can still enjoy retirement, but not get so old I can't do anything![/QUOTE]

You won't be saying that when you're 74 and still as fit as a fiddle.

jsmith99 · 30/08/10 - 16:04

I think the OP needs to be a little clearer in his terminology. He mentions both the number of people dying and the death rate; aren't these two different things?

if the population increases, then the number of people dying must increase. However, death rate is usually measured per 100,000 of population. If people are living longer, and the number of births per year is greater than the number of deaths, then more people may die, but the death rate would reduce.

Phoenixbliss · 30/08/10 - 16:36

Yes sorry i mean the number of deaths per year

5th Horseman · 30/08/10 - 17:14

williammur wrote: »

Horrible thing to say but in the future our planet wont be able to sustain the amount of people on it. Something will have to give. Be that limiting couples to one child would eventually bring the world population down.

I can't remember the exact figures but for some reason 12 Billion sticks out as the figure that the world could support. It wont be long until we get there,

So, I believe at some point in the future a surge in deaths would be err.... helpful . Not a nice thing to say but we can't keep breeding like this.

Nearer 1.5 billion if they all enjoyed the highest of standard lifestyles of North Americans, Western Europeans, Australasians and the Japanese.

mikeyddd · 30/08/10 - 17:49

dont worry this government will contribute to an increase in the death rate.:D

Phoenixbliss · 30/08/10 - 22:31

What I mean is by saving lives now you have postponed the event furthur down track so there surely must be a surge/spike later on?

[Deleted User] · 31/08/10 - 10:54

Phoenixbliss wrote: »

Its a wonderful think that we are finding better treatments for many conditions keeping people alive for longer.In the UK the number of deaths is declining gradually each year.All of this is welcome but am I right in thinking that at some future point there will have to be a surge ,even if itstemporary , in the death rate?

What I mean is all the people who would have died say aged 70 ish living nearer to say 87 at some point their later deaths will have to show up in the statistics?Its statistically impossible for the death rate to continiously go down non stop?Wont the welcome fall in death rates now mean that when those same people die say 20 years later there will have to be an increase in the death rate ,even if that is just a transitional statistical phenomenen while the demographics readjust them selves.Its a technical statistical question as well as a comment on biological inevitability.Can anyone confirm my understanding is correct?

Yes, the mortality rate is 100%. 100% of those alive one hundred and fifty years ago are dead now, and barring some brilliant scientific advance, 100% of those alive now will be dead in one hundred and fifty years time. A new treatment for heart disease or cancer might reduce the number of deaths per year in the short term, but we'll all die in the end.

Phoenixbliss · 31/08/10 - 19:11

So yes there will have to be a surge?

[Deleted User] · 31/08/10 - 19:14

When the baby boomers hit their peak dying time that will likely be a maximum. Also if there's the Black Death II or something.

[Deleted User] · 31/08/10 - 19:18

Stop worrying, you are all going to die from swine flu, bird flu, aids/hiv, CJD, knife attacks from hoodies, blown up by terrorists or some other fad the government wants us to be afraid of this week.

Either that or it'll be lights out for us all in 2012

[Deleted User] · 31/08/10 - 19:29

I'm sure nature will always take care of it, if the planet becomes too over populated.

Hey there!

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Future surge in the death rate inevitable?

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