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Will Russia "invade" Ukraine
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As you know, the Pro-Russian VY Government has been forced out of power due to the various broken promises about closer ties with the EU and corruption etc. They are currently creating a unity government, however there is a good chance it would be lead by the Pro-European faction which gets most of its support from Western Ukraine.
For Southern Ukraine (Russian Ukrainian), Eastern Ukraine (Mostly Russian Ukrainian) and the Crimea (88% are Russian Ukrainian), this is not really acceptable for them considering that they look more to Russia than the rest of Europe
It is to hard to beleve that Putin and his assoicates in Moscow are not happy about this, Putin himself has opposed the breakup of the USSR and he has spent him time in power breaking the other "Ex-Soviet" states into Russia's domian in various measures, which apart from the Baltic States he has suceeded, only the egos of the local rules has prevented any formal annexation.
Secondly along with the fact the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Navy is based in the Crimea, a lot of Russians support the idea of Russia annexing the Ukraine as a step towards reuniting the lost lands, if Putin did this, he woul gain a lot of support
So let me ask you all this, will Russia invade Ukraine or rather Eastern and Southern Ukraine at least...
Note: When I mean "Russian Ukrainian" I mean groups which either speak languages from the Russian Federation or are ethinic groups from the Russian Federation,
For Southern Ukraine (Russian Ukrainian), Eastern Ukraine (Mostly Russian Ukrainian) and the Crimea (88% are Russian Ukrainian), this is not really acceptable for them considering that they look more to Russia than the rest of Europe
It is to hard to beleve that Putin and his assoicates in Moscow are not happy about this, Putin himself has opposed the breakup of the USSR and he has spent him time in power breaking the other "Ex-Soviet" states into Russia's domian in various measures, which apart from the Baltic States he has suceeded, only the egos of the local rules has prevented any formal annexation.
Secondly along with the fact the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Navy is based in the Crimea, a lot of Russians support the idea of Russia annexing the Ukraine as a step towards reuniting the lost lands, if Putin did this, he woul gain a lot of support
So let me ask you all this, will Russia invade Ukraine or rather Eastern and Southern Ukraine at least...
Note: When I mean "Russian Ukrainian" I mean groups which either speak languages from the Russian Federation or are ethinic groups from the Russian Federation,
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Lastly, the breakway Molovian region of Transnistria (which is strongly Russian) borders Southern Ukraine, if the latter region becomes part of the Russian Federation, will Transnistria join it as well...
Well they did exactly the same thing with Georgia for a start and besides, what can NATO do? Espcially if Russia keeps out of Western Ukraine?
Putin passed the anti-gay laws simply to boost his popularity, imagine how much support he will gain if he annexed the Russian Parts of Ukraine, which he does support...
Russia is very much invovled in Syria and the Georgian experence showed that they will use force to retain their control over the "near aboard" as they call the other Ex-Soviet states...
Have they given any money?
Also if the IMF bailout proves to be too hard to swallow, will the Pro-Russians expolit this?
But if Russia acts first, NATO is not going to fight back.
Remember that Russia invaded a NATO associate state, annexed parts of their territory and got away with it...
Ukraine is not Georgia.
Ukraine has a sizable military, it would not be easy.
That is why Russia is likely to get involved...
The lease runs to 2042 so unless a new government attempts to change that why would they. The biggest issue is if armed conflict between the Mother Russia Ukrainians and the rest breaks out.
Does anyone know though how much of the Ukranian Milltary is Russian Ukrainian?
Also if Putin "did" invade Ukraine, it will most likely only cover Western and Southern Ukraine, where there is less hostility to Russian, I simply don't see Moscow willing to annex Western Ukraine...
Ukraines military would roll over in no time.
I think military intervention is a real possibility and will probably come in the form of a hundred thousand "military advisor's" to eastern Ukraine.
Well if Ukraine ends up becoming a member of both the EU and NATO, I highly doubt they would be allowed to have a major Non-NATO milltary base in the country.
Secondly Putin has made it clear he was against the breakup of the USSR and has wanted to annex Russian Ukraine and has opposed any movement towards the EU and NATO for any Ex-Soviet state.
I think this is the key - Ukraine are verging on the edge of financial collapse and need bailing out very soon, who is going to do that apart from Moscow?.
Had the EU agreed a more equitable trade deal then all this may have been averted, as it is I can only see Moscow as the answer - as much as it would pain half the country.
Well the Ukrianian Milltary has stated they will stay out of the poltical dicussions, howerver they have strong ties with Russia
http://www.haaretz.com/news/world/.premium-1.575987
So if there was a invasion, they would mostly oppose it especially if they only happened in Eastern and Southern Ukraine...
Agreed, this is Moscows other tool, certainly they will not make as many demands as the IMF for a start...
But it might offer "military assistance" of course.
In comparison the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation numbers 766,000 with 2 million in reserve and costs $90 billion.
Add the milltaries of Belarus (which borders Ukraine and is a client state of Russia) and Kazakstan (a close ally of Russia, although they are less keen) and you have a milltary numbering 936,000 with 2.65 million in reserve and costing $94 billion.
When to take account of the Ukrainian Milltaries close ties with Russia, invading Eastern and Southern Ukraine (maybe Central Ukraine) is posibble...
I don't see Russia invading. It doesn't need too. More likely Ukraine will split into East and West along ethnic lines.
Well what I meant was that "Russian Millitary Involvement" will aid the breakup between Ukraine.
So do you agree that Eastern and Southern Ukraine + Crimea become at least a associate state of Russia and Western Ukraine becomes a independent EU member? But where does this leave Kiev and Central Ukraine?