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Food for thought!!! FIX or NOT?
bigBro2011
Posts: 1,028 Forum Member
✭✭✭
was in a rush and will expand tomorrow if required?
Betting odds are not statistical FACT , please read to the end.
Sometime betting odds seem to confuse people and understandable so.
When the book first opens on any event it’s a estimation of the bookmaker chance of a event happening BUT structured in a way where a percentage is gained for a profit REGARDLESS of result in LONG TERM.
What is long term?
In a simple flip scenario (50% chance either way) it stands to reason without much analysis we win half the time although winning one losing one is RARELY ever encountered and over large samples it is simple fact we will encounter a losing run of 10 either way.
Now we have that out of the way its simple logic NOTHING is a LOCK (only one possible outcome)
Now when we look using the betting markets on big brother many miss vital points
The bookmaker doesn’t give a dam who wins a event in the short term , the reason for this is their initial prices when the book is opened is driven solely but the bettors money and they simply become facilitators , the markets are driven by punters 98% of the time (the other 2% should not be mentioned here as false market moves are a whole other thread itself)
Before we shout from the room tops FIX we really need to understand what would be the point?
Here are the full winner odds as time of writing from the odds at skybet
HM bookies represented chance
Chris 9/4 - 30.8%
Mark 7/2 - 22.2%
Winston 3 /1 - 25%
Jale 8/1 - 11.1%
Ashleigh 14/1 - 6.7%
Christopher 14/1 - 6.7%
Danielle 33/1 - 2.9%
Kimberly 40/1 - 2.4%
Ash 50/1 - 2%
Helen 33/1 - 2.9%
Steven 66 /1 - 1.5%
Marlon 100/1 - 1%
We can see from above the represented chances total over 100% , this is known as the over -round the total is 115.2% meaning if the odds where actually a true reflection then we would not be gaining value long term by playing a book – there is only one winner here and its not the punter.
In reality we would never back the whole market as we know (or at least should by the above) so we need only ever find value in the market to produce a solid wager.
We can do this by simply creating our own book and comparing against odds line to find discrepancies
We ALWAYS create our book to 100% for example (a working example , not reflection of my personal analysis) …….
HM our personal perceived chance
Chris 11/4 - 26.7%
Mark 7/2 - 22.2%
Winston 4 /1 - 20%
Ashleigh 10/1 - 9.1%
Christopher 14/1 6.7%
Jale 16/1 - 5.9%
Danielle 50/1 - 2%
Kimberly 50/1 - 2%
Steven 50/1 - 2%
Ash 100/1 - 1%
Helen 100/1 - 1%
Marlon 100/1 - 1%
From the above we are working with a 99.6% book which is fair , in general betting terms we also know our estimation will be out x% so we want a cushion but its not necessary in such a shallow market unlike other more complex markets.
Now if the above was what we really thought? There are only 1 possible bets Ashleigh @14/1 (6.7% chance of winning with bookmakers but we estimate her a 10/1 chance (9.1% chance of winning)
NOTE we agree with the bookies that statistically chris is the likeliest winner of bb this year BUT we would NEVER back him , his price simply doesn't reflect VALUE over the long run , he will win more often than any other housemate but he will never win often enough to make it a long term winning bet regardless of short term results.
I hope the above couple of points are clear enough to help others sit back and think before they type FIX , the bookies don’t care and neither should anyone who actually bet on big brother
Those screaming of foul play should have known that ash was never a 99.95% chance of leaving (1/20) despite whatever they believe emotionally
A few things to note here are
1) When betting in low liquidity markets that can be influenced by third parties(public) the red flags should not be ignored such as daily show edits, social media , competition weakness and market weakness.
2) Pinning hopes on singular polls (forums) ………these are a waste of time and not worth the virtual paper they are written on. When there are 1 million viewers and polls are based upon like 500 people? Or so that only have ONE vote they simply will not represent a)who will actually vote b)how MANY times people will vote c) a tactical vote for/against.
With this week’s odds line for eviction and a declining number of viewers or wouldn't take Einstein to realise how easily these betting odds lines would be to take advantage of.
One thing is statistically proven over literally millions of betting market analysis this single worst result for the bookie is when a favourite wins , whilst long term it doesn't matter they simply earn less per market position1 than any other market position , they will win over the long term only because people bet at the incorrect prices so god dam often and that’s mainly because they bet too often before a VALUE opportunity arises.
I really do hope this is clear for enough people that the common trend of post at least backs up their points and allows for interesting discussion thereof , its probably not going to change a god dam thing but atleast I tried
Betting odds are not statistical FACT , please read to the end.
Sometime betting odds seem to confuse people and understandable so.
When the book first opens on any event it’s a estimation of the bookmaker chance of a event happening BUT structured in a way where a percentage is gained for a profit REGARDLESS of result in LONG TERM.
What is long term?
In a simple flip scenario (50% chance either way) it stands to reason without much analysis we win half the time although winning one losing one is RARELY ever encountered and over large samples it is simple fact we will encounter a losing run of 10 either way.
Now we have that out of the way its simple logic NOTHING is a LOCK (only one possible outcome)
Now when we look using the betting markets on big brother many miss vital points
The bookmaker doesn’t give a dam who wins a event in the short term , the reason for this is their initial prices when the book is opened is driven solely but the bettors money and they simply become facilitators , the markets are driven by punters 98% of the time (the other 2% should not be mentioned here as false market moves are a whole other thread itself)
Before we shout from the room tops FIX we really need to understand what would be the point?
Here are the full winner odds as time of writing from the odds at skybet
HM bookies represented chance
Chris 9/4 - 30.8%
Mark 7/2 - 22.2%
Winston 3 /1 - 25%
Jale 8/1 - 11.1%
Ashleigh 14/1 - 6.7%
Christopher 14/1 - 6.7%
Danielle 33/1 - 2.9%
Kimberly 40/1 - 2.4%
Ash 50/1 - 2%
Helen 33/1 - 2.9%
Steven 66 /1 - 1.5%
Marlon 100/1 - 1%
We can see from above the represented chances total over 100% , this is known as the over -round the total is 115.2% meaning if the odds where actually a true reflection then we would not be gaining value long term by playing a book – there is only one winner here and its not the punter.
In reality we would never back the whole market as we know (or at least should by the above) so we need only ever find value in the market to produce a solid wager.
We can do this by simply creating our own book and comparing against odds line to find discrepancies
We ALWAYS create our book to 100% for example (a working example , not reflection of my personal analysis) …….
HM our personal perceived chance
Chris 11/4 - 26.7%
Mark 7/2 - 22.2%
Winston 4 /1 - 20%
Ashleigh 10/1 - 9.1%
Christopher 14/1 6.7%
Jale 16/1 - 5.9%
Danielle 50/1 - 2%
Kimberly 50/1 - 2%
Steven 50/1 - 2%
Ash 100/1 - 1%
Helen 100/1 - 1%
Marlon 100/1 - 1%
From the above we are working with a 99.6% book which is fair , in general betting terms we also know our estimation will be out x% so we want a cushion but its not necessary in such a shallow market unlike other more complex markets.
Now if the above was what we really thought? There are only 1 possible bets Ashleigh @14/1 (6.7% chance of winning with bookmakers but we estimate her a 10/1 chance (9.1% chance of winning)
NOTE we agree with the bookies that statistically chris is the likeliest winner of bb this year BUT we would NEVER back him , his price simply doesn't reflect VALUE over the long run , he will win more often than any other housemate but he will never win often enough to make it a long term winning bet regardless of short term results.
I hope the above couple of points are clear enough to help others sit back and think before they type FIX , the bookies don’t care and neither should anyone who actually bet on big brother
Those screaming of foul play should have known that ash was never a 99.95% chance of leaving (1/20) despite whatever they believe emotionally
A few things to note here are
1) When betting in low liquidity markets that can be influenced by third parties(public) the red flags should not be ignored such as daily show edits, social media , competition weakness and market weakness.
2) Pinning hopes on singular polls (forums) ………these are a waste of time and not worth the virtual paper they are written on. When there are 1 million viewers and polls are based upon like 500 people? Or so that only have ONE vote they simply will not represent a)who will actually vote b)how MANY times people will vote c) a tactical vote for/against.
With this week’s odds line for eviction and a declining number of viewers or wouldn't take Einstein to realise how easily these betting odds lines would be to take advantage of.
One thing is statistically proven over literally millions of betting market analysis this single worst result for the bookie is when a favourite wins , whilst long term it doesn't matter they simply earn less per market position1 than any other market position , they will win over the long term only because people bet at the incorrect prices so god dam often and that’s mainly because they bet too often before a VALUE opportunity arises.
I really do hope this is clear for enough people that the common trend of post at least backs up their points and allows for interesting discussion thereof , its probably not going to change a god dam thing but atleast I tried
0
Comments
sry if it was too long winded though but its tough to break it down any more to make the point a valid one IMO
No Fix. This.
this would back up the point about value finding in any event esp in a seemingly one sided market 99.95% is fooking redic
as in the op the point 1) in things to note
I know, was just saying my opinion.
Endemol do not need to fix anything
glad there are a few people who get my points made as i havent posted for a while and thought i might be going insane reading all the must be a fix.........i do think the editing played a role in changing likely outcome but that happens every single condensed HL show , people are soon to moan about certain edits yet are quick to forget the favorable ones
its all relative
Dont take it the wrong way i was agreeing with your point
bookies odds are for numptys ,
then you should have no problem making a few mil a year ;-)
but their odds are actually just fine, its their movement of said line that they excel at but its clear you have no interest either way which is of course fine also
i do believe Red busses are for numpties though so maybe we agree on that?
They are fascinating. When a major event is about to start I sometimes make a book up and see how close I am to the bookies. No it's not sad and I don't need to get out more. :cool:
Care to expand ?
possible troll?
maybe convinced and no point expanding?