Cameron on the back foot?

allaortaallaorta Posts: 19,050
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I've read that Cameron is mobilising the "remain in EU" campaign. Could the reason be that a new poll has the out campaign 6 points ahead

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3402917/EU-shock-vote-storms-six-cent-ahead-wake-Paris-massacre-Cologne-sex-attacks-migrant-crisis.html

Now whilst I have many reservations about polls, it's interesting that this one is by the same pollster that got a somewhat differet result only some 8 months ago.

My choice of post-article comments:

All you here is reform, reform.....so if the EU is such a plus for the UK why is so much change needed ! Of course any of this so called reform will be superfluous to the wants of the British people anyway.
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Comments

  • nainznainz Posts: 1,777
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    If you believe the polls, you're a fool. Out will need a 10 point advantage just to break even on polling day.
  • David TeeDavid Tee Posts: 22,833
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    nainz wrote: »
    If you believe the polls, you're a fool. Out will need a 10 point advantage just to break even on polling day.

    I'd go along with that...
  • jmclaughjmclaugh Posts: 63,988
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    Cameron always was and is in favour of remaining in the EU and he was always going to campaign to stay. His re-negotiations will amount to diddly squat and that is what could put him on the back foot because he's going to look like Chamberlain peddling a worthless agreement.
  • MeepersMeepers Posts: 5,502
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    If this is Cameron on the back foot, I darent to imagine how bad the polls would be for Labour if he was on the front foot
  • niceguy1966niceguy1966 Posts: 29,560
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    Meepers wrote: »
    If this is Cameron on the back foot, I darent to imagine how bad the polls would be for Labour if he was on the front foot

    I know it's fun to make everything about left v right, but this debate is about remain or leave. There are people in both camps in both main parties.

    Cameron is on the back foot in the remain campaign.
  • allaortaallaorta Posts: 19,050
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    nainz wrote: »
    If you believe the polls, you're a fool. Out will need a 10 point advantage just to break even on polling day.

    Read the OP, properly. I understand that may be difficult for you despite you having your own mental poll miscalculaion of what will be needed come polling day.
  • allaortaallaorta Posts: 19,050
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    Meepers wrote: »
    If this is Cameron on the back foot, I darent to imagine how bad the polls would be for Labour if he was on the front foot

    Don't even present your imaginations, we know how biased they are.:)
  • RooksRooks Posts: 9,080
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    nainz wrote: »
    If you believe the polls, you're a fool. Out will need a 10 point advantage just to break even on polling day.

    Leave has been improving in the polls month by month and, right now, there's plenty of bad news coming out of the EU - enough to keep the polls favouring a Brexit. All the momentum is with Leave but that might change when the fear campaign starts in earnest.
  • bozzimacoobozzimacoo Posts: 1,135
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    No matter who's in power here in the UK, Merkel has affected decisions way beyond her borders. I have always thought, come the next gen election, the best economic policies in the world wouldn't and couldn't save a party that ignores what's happening in Europe. Potentially people will be on the move once they get their EU passports.
  • clinchclinch Posts: 11,574
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    nainz wrote: »
    If you believe the polls, you're a fool. Out will need a 10 point advantage just to break even on polling day.

    Time will tell. However, a narrow 'in' vote will be a seismic shift, like the narrower than expected 'no' vote in Scotland.
  • DaccoDacco Posts: 3,354
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    Postal voting will need to have a particularly close eye kept on it.
  • MajlisMajlis Posts: 31,362
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    Rooks wrote: »
    Leave has been improving in the polls month by month and, right now, there's plenty of bad news coming out of the EU - enough to keep the polls favouring a Brexit. All the momentum is with Leave but that might change when the fear campaign starts in earnest.

    The fear campaign is going to have to do something spectacular to outweigh the news at the moment - if they simply keep repeating garbage like losing 3 million jobs then they are sunk.
  • DaccoDacco Posts: 3,354
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    Majlis wrote: »
    The fear campaign is going to have to do something spectacular to outweigh the news at the moment - if they simply keep repeating garbage like losing 3 million jobs then they are sunk.

    Are they keeping the game changer until the last 24-48 hours before voting.
  • MajlisMajlis Posts: 31,362
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    Dacco wrote: »
    Are they keeping the game changer until the last 24-48 hours before voting.

    Possibly although I have no idea what it could be. I have always been in favour of exit but never expected to win the referendum - recent events have made me a lot more hopeful though.
  • LostFoolLostFool Posts: 90,623
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    nainz wrote: »
    If you believe the polls, you're a fool. Out will need a 10 point advantage just to break even on polling day.

    I agree. In any referendum those in favour of change always make the most noise while those happy with the status quo tend to be silent until polling day.
  • RooksRooks Posts: 9,080
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    LostFool wrote: »
    I agree. In any referendum those in favour of change always make the most noise while those happy with the status quo tend to be silent until polling day.

    But are often less inclined to vote. I'm pretty sure they'll be a number of people for whom the EU is a distant thing that they feel has little impact on their lives. Many of those people just won't bother to vote. I don't think enough people care about the EU to go and vote to stay in it and apathy to the EU will be the reason for a Brexit. That's just my feeling though.
  • greenyonegreenyone Posts: 3,545
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    Cameron is a worried man his party are in turmoil over the EU
  • LostFoolLostFool Posts: 90,623
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    Rooks wrote: »
    But are often less inclined to vote. I'm pretty sure they'll be a number of people for whom the EU is a distant thing that they feel has little impact on their lives. Many of those people just won't bother to vote. I don't think enough people care about the EU to go and vote to stay in it and apathy to the EU will be the reason for a Brexit. That's just my feeling though.

    I suppose it will depend on the turnout - and that could depend upon the date.
  • Multimedia81Multimedia81 Posts: 82,461
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    Most of David Cameron's referenda have been on causes he does not believe in ie AV, Scottish independence and now Britain potentially leaving the EU. He did want more elected Mayors but only 2 places voted for them (after Greater London in 1998), namely Salford and Bristol. Liverpool Council decided to introduce one anyway without a local referendum.
  • Phil 2804Phil 2804 Posts: 21,846
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    Majlis wrote: »
    The fear campaign is going to have to do something spectacular to outweigh the news at the moment - if they simply keep repeating garbage like losing 3 million jobs then they are sunk.

    I'd agree with that. I think the direction of travel of the UK public is out, I'm probably going to vote Out myself as the fact closing our borders isn't even up for discussion is a complete deal breaker.
  • thenetworkbabethenetworkbabe Posts: 45,554
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    Rooks wrote: »
    But are often less inclined to vote. I'm pretty sure they'll be a number of people for whom the EU is a distant thing that they feel has little impact on their lives. Many of those people just won't bother to vote. I don't think enough people care about the EU to go and vote to stay in it and apathy to the EU will be the reason for a Brexit. That's just my feeling though.

    Thats the problem , the little Englanders, heirs to Enoch, and those angry about immigrants, will be more determined to vote. The ones wanting to avoid the vast unknows , and downside, of withdrawal won't be so psychologically committed. Labour haave a policy of in, but a leader who is a joke, who actually wants out. The out vote is largely an older generation thing to,o and they tend to vote, and be stable where they live, and on the current register. The young vote often won't , or won't be able to , vote .

    On the other hand, the no campaign is stuck with a cast of potentially gruesome leaders - like Lawson, Tebbit, IDS and Farage - who will put 75% of the population off. Cameron though seems to be going for a Boris proposal which will allow Boris , Cameron, Clegg, Sturgeon , and the saner Labour leaders to present an united front.
  • LyricalisLyricalis Posts: 57,958
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    Thats the problem , the little Englanders, heirs to Enoch, and those angry about immigrants, will be more determined to vote. The ones wanting to avoid the vast unknows , and downside, of withdrawal won't be so psychologically committed. Labour haave a policy of in, but a leader who is a joke, who actually wants out. The out vote is largely an older generation thing to,o and they tend to vote, and be stable where they live, and on the current register. The young vote often won't , or won't be able to , vote .

    On the other hand, the no campaign is stuck with a cast of potentially gruesome leaders - like Lawson, Tebbit, IDS and Farage - who will put 75% of the population off. Cameron though seems to be going for a Boris proposal which will allow Boris , Cameron, Clegg, Sturgeon , and the saner Labour leaders to present an united front.

    I'd be very wary of looking like I was on the same side as Cameron if I were anyone who isn't a Tory. That guy and his party are a toxic association as far as the electorate are concerned. Just look at the fate of the Lib Dems (anywhere) and Labour in Scotland for proof of that.

    The electorate certainly won't have any mercy at all for anyone doing things for what they consider is the greater good.

    It's a weird situation, as if the electorate vote for Tories and yet inside hate themselves for doing so, and take it out on anyone they perceive as being close to the them.

    Sort of like kicking the dog of the abusive partner you can't bear to leave.

    Whatever it is it ain't healthy that's for sure.
  • clinchclinch Posts: 11,574
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    Thats the problem , the little Englanders, heirs to Enoch, and those angry about immigrants, will be more determined to vote. The ones wanting to avoid the vast unknows , and downside, of withdrawal won't be so psychologically committed. Labour haave a policy of in, but a leader who is a joke, who actually wants out. The out vote is largely an older generation thing to,o and they tend to vote, and be stable where they live, and on the current register. The young vote often won't , or won't be able to , vote .

    On the other hand, the no campaign is stuck with a cast of potentially gruesome leaders - like Lawson, Tebbit, IDS and Farage - who will put 75% of the population off. Cameron though seems to be going for a Boris proposal which will allow Boris , Cameron, Clegg, Sturgeon , and the saner Labour leaders to present an united front.

    What an odd rant. A lot of bitter assumptions in there.
  • allaortaallaorta Posts: 19,050
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    Thats the problem , the little Englanders, heirs to Enoch, and those angry about immigrants, will be more determined to vote. The ones wanting to avoid the vast unknows , and downside, of withdrawal won't be so psychologically committed. Labour haave a policy of in, but a leader who is a joke, who actually wants out. The out vote is largely an older generation thing to,o and they tend to vote, and be stable where they live, and on the current register. The young vote often won't , or won't be able to , vote .

    On the other hand, the no campaign is stuck with a cast of potentially gruesome leaders - like Lawson, Tebbit, IDS and Farage - who will put 75% of the population off. Cameron though seems to be going for a Boris proposal which will allow Boris , Cameron, Clegg, Sturgeon , and the saner Labour leaders to present an united front.

    Support for UKIP/Farage grows by the day whilst Cameron, Clegg and Sturgeon are really popular across the wider population. Delete as appropriate.
  • Phil 2804Phil 2804 Posts: 21,846
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    clinch wrote: »
    What an odd rant. A lot of bitter assumptions in there.

    The Nats in Scotland blamed old people and English people for the No vote in 2014 when in reality every study of voting on the day showed an across the board No vote including among 16-24 year olds.

    Working age people have as much if not more to lose from continued mass migration from Eastern Europe.
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