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UK will lose £200 billion in trade every year if voters back Brexit?

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    mickmarsmickmars Posts: 7,438
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    aurichie wrote: »
    Good for you on the willingness to sacrifice. Fortunately the majority of British people would prefer to stay with our partners in the EU, while also having a home and be able to put food on the table for their family.

    I remember the early 1970s before Britain joined the European experiment
    There were no homes in Britain,and no food anywhere to be found

    FFS :o
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    thenetworkbabethenetworkbabe Posts: 45,624
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    Net Nut wrote: »

    Thats what the economic model says if you wack up all our export prices to Europe, and everywhere else where we rely on EU trade treaties, by the standard world trade tariffs. It looks a large total , but people tend not to buy something if the alternative is suddenly 5 or 10% cheaper.

    No assume the evil Europeans will fall over themselves to give us the single market without tariffs, and without what every one else in the single market has to accept, straight away, They also assume everyone else who would normally take 4-10 years to agree a trade deal would all sign new treaties straight away. Its a fantasy.
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    SteganStegan Posts: 5,039
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    paralax wrote: »
    If the so called consequences were half as bad as Osborne and his buddies would have us believe, Cameron would not have risked a referendum. That's why I take all these threats of Armageddon with a pinch of salt. When was the last time Osborne made an accurate forecast about anything.

    In November 2015, Cameron was speaking positively about Britain leaving the EU. This year, he was once again quite prepared to leave the EU if welfare concessions failed.

    Suddenly, it appears he is vehemently against the idea of leaving the EU after the announcement of the referendum. We have seen him try every trick in the book to ensure that Britain votes to remain in the EU. Could it be that he has been promised some kind of money spinning role within the EU when his frontline political stint is over if he sways a vote to remain?

    I strongly suspect the EU fears the exit of Britain, as it is likely to cause instability with other countries deciding to hold their own referendums and deciding to leave.
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    thenetworkbabethenetworkbabe Posts: 45,624
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    mickmars wrote: »
    I remember the early 1970s before Britain joined the European experiment
    There were no homes in Britain,and no food anywhere to be found

    FFS :o

    Strikes, 3 day weeks, inflation, perpetual balance of payments crises, curency controls stopping anyone taking more than £50 out of the country, overmanned dying heavy industries, incompetent , even more overmanned, nationalised industries, national prestige products - like Concorde's no one would buy , junior doctors working 80 hour weeks, holidays at Butlins .........

    Things were truly grim in pre EU Britain - thats one reason we joined - to force the country to become more productive, and to acquire a bigger domestic market to amke up for the loss of India 25 years before.
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    thenetworkbabethenetworkbabe Posts: 45,624
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    Stegan wrote: »
    In November 2015, Cameron was speaking positively about Britain leaving the EU. This year, he was once again quite prepared to leave the EU if welfare concessions failed.

    Suddenly, it appears he is vehemently against the idea of leaving the EU after the announcement of the referendum. We have seen him try every trick in the book to ensure that Britain votes to remain in the EU. Could it be that he has been promised some kind of money spinning role within the EU when his frontline political stint is over if he sways a vote to remain?

    I strongly suspect the EU fears the exit of Britain, as it is likely to cause instability with other countries deciding to hold their own referendums and deciding to leave.

    Your inventing a difference where there is none, because you implicitly accept the no camp central fib - that the negotiations didn't matter. Cameron tested the Europeans will to give us what we wanted - where no will to reform would have changed the calculation on staying. He also closed the one real issue with immigration - that people might come for benefits at some point - although they now come to work,and find it. That needed to be closed. He also got firm commitments on our opt outs - where any questioning of the opt outs would have altered the case for staying. Having dealt with all the real world problems , of course he can start arguing that the downside to exit outweighs any gains. -- if anyone could find any gains.

    You also miss the basics of negotiation . Of course you have to suggest going is an option, if you want concessions from 27 states, some of whom may not want to compromise. Equally, you can 't tell the public that Britain would be severely damaged by exit, without getting the macho, playground, argument back from the no camp about talking the country down. Boris has already descrived it as a David v Goliath battle - in the hope some voters will fancy their chances at playing chicken with recession. . You have to say what Cameron is saying. We would survive, but we would be much worse off.

    We currently have no idea what any leader post exit will be saying, because the downturn and resultant cuts will be so severe . They will need to be able to blame someone- but its going to be difficult to point the finger at the people responsible =- all the people who voted for recession , and the politicians who promised them there wouldn't be one.
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    Dan 54Dan 54 Posts: 1,822
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    Your inventing a difference where there is none, because you implicitly accept the no camp central fib - that the negotiations didn't matter. Cameron tested the Europeans will to give us what we wanted - where no will to reform would have changed the calculation on staying. He also closed the one real issue with immigration - that people might come for benefits at some point - although they now come to work,and find it. That needed to be closed. He also got firm commitments on our opt outs - where any questioning of the opt outs would have altered the case for staying. Having dealt with all the real world problems , of course he can start arguing that the downside to exit outweighs any gains. -- if anyone could find any gains.

    You also miss the basics of negotiation . Of course you have to suggest going is an option, if you want concessions from 27 states, some of whom may not want to compromise. Equally, you can 't tell the public that Britain would be severely damaged by exit, without getting the macho, playground, argument back from the no camp about talking the country down. Boris has already descrived it as a David v Goliath battle - in the hope some voters will fancy their chances at playing chicken with recession. . You have to say what Cameron is saying. We would survive, but we would be much worse off.

    We currently have no idea what any leader post exit will be saying, because the downturn and resultant cuts will be so severe . They will need to be able to blame someone- but its going to be difficult to point the finger at the people responsible =- all the people who voted for recession , and the politicians who promised them there wouldn't be one.

    And yet again! You remainders just can't stop!
    Scaremongering. You have no proof whatsoever and stop pretending you do.Unless you are related to Mystic Meg?
    Its like a doomongering disease you remainders suffer from.
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    paralaxparalax Posts: 12,127
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    mickmars wrote: »
    I remember the early 1970s before Britain joined the European experiment
    There were no homes in Britain,and no food anywhere to be found

    FFS :o

    Oh you made me chuckle, I am old enough to remember life before the EU as well, which is why these scare tactics don't bother me, but for generations who have only known being under the thumb of Brussels they do buy into them.
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    normalmishanormalmisha Posts: 1,297
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    Money, money, money, money...money. Tedious.
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    exlordlucanexlordlucan Posts: 35,375
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    And people call those who want to remain unrealistic.

    .

    When I posted that there was no link, just the claim.
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    Net NutNet Nut Posts: 10,286
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    PrestonAl wrote: »
    Good well supported argument.

    Yes it looked that way to me as well.
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    roth30roth30 Posts: 3,264
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    Strikes, 3 day weeks, inflation, perpetual balance of payments crises, curency controls stopping anyone taking more than £50 out of the country, overmanned dying heavy industries, incompetent , even more overmanned, nationalised industries, national prestige products - like Concorde's no one would buy , junior doctors working 80 hour weeks, holidays at Butlins .........

    Things were truly grim in pre EU Britain - thats one reason we joined - to force the country to become more productive, and to acquire a bigger domestic market to amke up for the loss of India 25 years before.

    Those happened after we joined the EEC so did the winter of discontent need to get your facts right.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CY_BgnZdwko

    If you start it around 15mins 28 sec you will see im right.
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    mickmarsmickmars Posts: 7,438
    Forum Member
    Strikes, 3 day weeks, inflation, perpetual balance of payments crises, curency controls stopping anyone taking more than £50 out of the country, overmanned dying heavy industries, incompetent , even more overmanned, nationalised industries, national prestige products - like Concorde's no one would buy , junior doctors working 80 hour weeks, holidays at Butlins .........

    Things were truly grim in pre EU Britain - thats one reason we joined - to force the country to become more productive, and to acquire a bigger domestic market to amke up for the loss of India 25 years before.

    95% of those problems were 1970's issues,and the solutions had bugger all to do with the common market membership

    A problem we certainly didn't have was the multi millions of unskilled/uneducated/unhealthy/lowlife/criminals from Europe having the right to live in Britain.
    And that "problem" is what has tipped this whole thing over the edge for millions of British born people.
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    exlordlucanexlordlucan Posts: 35,375
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    mickmars wrote: »
    95% of those problems were 1970's issues,and the solutions had bugger all to do with the common market membership

    Also Concorde was an Anglo French product.
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