I'm surprised people think Chastain is a real threat. She hasn't won any of the big lead up awards really. She's third among many oddsmakers now. Riva has a better shot. Lawrence has been winning most of the big awards up until the BAFTAS.
Current tally:
Chastain: 2 - Golden Globes and Critics' Choice
Riva: 4 - BAFTA, London Film Critics, European Film Awards and LA Film Critics (shared with Jennifer Lawrence)
Lawrence: 3 - Golden Globes, SAG and LA Film Critics (shared with Riva)
Riva may have won more, but most of hers are smaller ones or non-American. Chastain isn't far behind, and she has two of the most prestigious, so does Lawrence. I think Chastain is scuppered by the general lack of reward for Zero Dark Thirty, but I think she's got more chance with the Academy than Riva does. I still think Lawrence will win it though.
Chastain: 2 - Golden Globes and Critics' Choice
Riva: 4 - BAFTA, London Film Critics, European Film Awards and LA Film Critics (shared with Jennifer Lawrence)
Lawrence: 3 - Golden Globes, SAG and LA Film Critics (shared with Riva)
Riva may have won more, but most of hers are smaller ones or non-American. Chastain isn't far behind, and she has two of the most prestigious, so does Lawrence. I think Chastain is scuppered by the general lack of reward for Zero Dark Thirty, but I think she's got more chance with the Academy than Riva does. I still think Lawrence will win it though.
Jennifer and Jessica have won way more awards than Emmanuelle. London & European Films Critics are pretty irrelevant so if you count those two you have to count them all.
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
16 WINS (Golden Globe [D], BFCA, NBR, Chicago, Washington DC, St. Louis, Dallas-Fort Worth, Florida, Phoenix, Indiana, Utah, Oklahoma, Vancouver, AWFJ, BFCC, Boston Online)
9 NOMINATIONS (OSCAR, SAG, BAFTA, London, Phoenix, San Diego, Houston, Denver, OFC)
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
16 WINS (SAG, Los Angeles, Golden Globe [C/M], Southeastern, Kansas City, Las Vegas, Detroit, Austin, Utah, Nevada, Central Ohio, Houston, North Texas, Denver, OFC, Satellite)
1 RUNNER-UP (National Society of Film Critics)
11 NOMINATIONS (OSCAR, BAFTA, BFCA, London, Chicago, Phoenix, St. Louis, Washington DC, San Diego, Vancouver, AWFJ)
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
7 WINS (BAFTA, Los Angeles, National Society of Film Critics, London, Boston, San Fransisco, NY Online)
8 NOMINATIONS (OSCAR, BFCA, Chicago, Washington DC, Houston, OFC, AWFJ, Satellite)
Jennifer and Jessica have won way more awards than Emmanuelle. London & European Films Critics are pretty irrelevant so if you count those two you have to count them all.
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
16 WINS (Golden Globe [D], BFCA, NBR, Chicago, Washington DC, St. Louis, Dallas-Fort Worth, Florida, Phoenix, Indiana, Utah, Oklahoma, Vancouver, AWFJ, BFCC, Boston Online)
9 NOMINATIONS (OSCAR, SAG, BAFTA, London, Phoenix, San Diego, Houston, Denver, OFC)
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
16 WINS (SAG, Los Angeles, Golden Globe [C/M], Southeastern, Kansas City, Las Vegas, Detroit, Austin, Utah, Nevada, Central Ohio, Houston, North Texas, Denver, OFC, Satellite)
1 RUNNER-UP (National Society of Film Critics)
11 NOMINATIONS (OSCAR, BAFTA, BFCA, London, Chicago, Phoenix, St. Louis, Washington DC, San Diego, Vancouver, AWFJ)
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
7 WINS (BAFTA, Los Angeles, National Society of Film Critics, London, Boston, San Fransisco, NY Online)
8 NOMINATIONS (OSCAR, BFCA, Chicago, Washington DC, Houston, OFC, AWFJ, Satellite)
So Jennifer has the best showing with awards
I thought they had, the source I was using only listed the awards I mentioned so I had to go with that in the meantime. It's actually still interesting though as it proved my point about Lawrence and Chastain winning more of the heavyweight awards than Riva anyway.
I still reckon Tommy Lee Jones will win supporting actor even though I think Waltz deserves it more. Something about awarding a foreign actor twice in four years over a great American actor playing a historical character doesn't scream Academy to me.
Riva's win at the BAFTAs is the real talking point. The Academy love awarding the oldies, especially when there is no real standout performance. She's the oldest nominee of the leading actress award by 5 years and I wouldn't be surprised if she was announced the winner.
Riva's win at the BAFTAs is the real talking point. The Academy love awarding the oldies, especially when there is no real standout performance. She's the oldest nominee of the leading actress award by 5 years and I wouldn't be surprised if she was announced the winner.
Not with actresses. They're pretty agiest in that regard.
Having said that I think Riva is the spoiler for Lawrence now, rather than Chastain.
I think early on she looked like the main person who'd hit the spot for those people who weren't sure about Jennifer Lawrence or Jessica Chastian, but after a brief surge in support it all seems to have simmered down a lot in favour of Emanuelle Riva, i think the lack of even a nomination for BAFTA put a big hole in her campaign which is a shame as I think if she won it wouldn't be undeserved. I'd actually say Quevenhaze Wallis is the only one who has 'no chance' of winning, but I'd say at this point it's almost a two horse race between Jennifer Lawrence and Emanuelle Riva, which I think Jennifer on balance deserves slightly more, but who knows, it's exciting to have at least one category wide open at this point!
I think early on she looked like the main person who'd hit the spot for those people who weren't sure about Jennifer Lawrence or Jessica Chastian, but after a brief surge in support it all seems to have simmered down a lot in favour of Emanuelle Riva, i think the lack of even a nomination for BAFTA put a big hole in her campaign which is a shame as I think if she won it wouldn't be undeserved. I'd actually say Quevenhaze Wallis is the only one who has 'no chance' of winning, but I'd say at this point it's almost a two horse race between Jennifer Lawrence and Emanuelle Riva, which I think Jennifer on balance deserves slightly more, but who knows, it's exciting to have at least one category wide open at this point!
Actress is the most open of the four acting categories although I think Supporting Actor could produce a surprise. But the most open category at the moment has to be Director. There is no clue as to who might get it since Affleck has won all of the awards that generally are used as predictors. I also wonder if the eventual winner might feel they have won by default because the guy to beat on previous form wasn't even nominated this time.
Actress is the most open of the four acting categories although I think Supporting Actor could produce a surprise. But the most open category at the moment has to be Director. There is no clue as to who might get it since Affleck has won all of the awards that generally are used as predictors. I also wonder if the eventual winner might feel they have won by default because the guy to beat on previous form wasn't even nominated this time.
Oh I thought after GG and BAFTA Christoph Waltz is looking like he's pulling ahead a bit? But I guess your right and there's still room for a shock, although I think if it happens it'll come from Robert De Niro as opposed to Tommy Lee Jones. Director is an interesting that I'd totally forgotten about, Ben Affleck winning everything had actually made me almost forget it was a race, it'll be an interesting one indeed!
Oh I thought after GG and BAFTA Christoph Waltz is looking like he's pulling ahead a bit? But I guess your right and there's still room for a shock, although I think if it happens it'll come from Robert De Niro as opposed to Tommy Lee Jones. Director is an interesting that I'd totally forgotten about, Ben Affleck winning everything had actually made me almost forget it was a race, it'll be an interesting one indeed!
Tommy Lee Jones won the Screen Actors Guild award for supporting actor and the actors make up the biggest bloc of voters in the academy so there's still a possibility he'll do it but after Waltz's win at the weekend he must be feeling more secure. And the SAG aren't always the best predictor.
I found Chastain very over-dramatic and annoying in Zero Dark Thirty. It really wasn't textbook acting, in fact it kind of spoiled the movie. Mind you, the script might be to blame for that too.
Lawrence or Riva should get it. I predict Wallis though because the AA like to create a shock and quite frankly the line-up for best actress isn't that great. So its a good opportunity to give the Oscars a headline.
I found Chastain very over-dramatic and annoying in Zero Dark Thirty. It really wasn't textbook acting, in fact it kind of spoiled the movie. Mind you, the script might be to blame for that too.
Lawrence or Riva should get it. I predict Wallis though because the AA like to create a shock and quite frankly the line-up for best actress isn't that great. So its a good opportunity to give the Oscars a headline.
i think a riva triumph will be shock enough but counter-balanced by the rivatics who swear by her "masterclass" of a performance in amour.
I found Chastain very over-dramatic and annoying in Zero Dark Thirty. It really wasn't textbook acting, in fact it kind of spoiled the movie. Mind you, the script might be to blame for that too.
Lawrence or Riva should get it. I predict Wallis though because the AA like to create a shock and quite frankly the line-up for best actress isn't that great. So its a good opportunity to give the Oscars a headline.
Ahahahaha, dream on. I love Naomi, but she has no chance.
Are you basing this prediction on your personal opinion of her performance? If so (and I'm certain your answer will be yes because there's been absolutely no reason to expect her to take it), then you're doing it wrong and I suggest you prepare for disappointment on February 25th.
Just watched the Oscar special of 'Between the Two Ferns' with Zach Galifanakis. It's so funny - Bradley Cooper reads out a speech that Zach has written for him which is him congratulating DDL on winning
No, I mean Wallis, the girl. Big headlines for a performance that deserves an Oscar far more than some of the others do. Only Riva would be the major surprise, but as mentioned before foreign language films don't get far often in the big categories.
No, I mean Wallis, the girl. Big headlines for a performance that deserves an Oscar far more than some of the others do. Only Riva would be the major surprise, but as mentioned before foreign language films don't get far often in the big categories.
roberto benigni won best actor for life is beautiful
roberto benigni won best actor for life is beautiful
And Jean Dujardin won last year of course.
It wouldn't be strange if Riva won, but when the nominations were announced all the buzz was about Jennifer Lawrence and Jessica Chastain, and Lawrence won at the Golden Globes and the SAGs, so I would be a bit surprised if she didn't win.
Comments
Current tally:
Chastain: 2 - Golden Globes and Critics' Choice
Riva: 4 - BAFTA, London Film Critics, European Film Awards and LA Film Critics (shared with Jennifer Lawrence)
Lawrence: 3 - Golden Globes, SAG and LA Film Critics (shared with Riva)
Riva may have won more, but most of hers are smaller ones or non-American. Chastain isn't far behind, and she has two of the most prestigious, so does Lawrence. I think Chastain is scuppered by the general lack of reward for Zero Dark Thirty, but I think she's got more chance with the Academy than Riva does. I still think Lawrence will win it though.
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
16 WINS (Golden Globe [D], BFCA, NBR, Chicago, Washington DC, St. Louis, Dallas-Fort Worth, Florida, Phoenix, Indiana, Utah, Oklahoma, Vancouver, AWFJ, BFCC, Boston Online)
9 NOMINATIONS (OSCAR, SAG, BAFTA, London, Phoenix, San Diego, Houston, Denver, OFC)
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
16 WINS (SAG, Los Angeles, Golden Globe [C/M], Southeastern, Kansas City, Las Vegas, Detroit, Austin, Utah, Nevada, Central Ohio, Houston, North Texas, Denver, OFC, Satellite)
1 RUNNER-UP (National Society of Film Critics)
11 NOMINATIONS (OSCAR, BAFTA, BFCA, London, Chicago, Phoenix, St. Louis, Washington DC, San Diego, Vancouver, AWFJ)
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
7 WINS (BAFTA, Los Angeles, National Society of Film Critics, London, Boston, San Fransisco, NY Online)
8 NOMINATIONS (OSCAR, BFCA, Chicago, Washington DC, Houston, OFC, AWFJ, Satellite)
So Jennifer has the best showing with awards
I thought they had, the source I was using only listed the awards I mentioned so I had to go with that in the meantime. It's actually still interesting though as it proved my point about Lawrence and Chastain winning more of the heavyweight awards than Riva anyway.
Riva's win at the BAFTAs is the real talking point. The Academy love awarding the oldies, especially when there is no real standout performance. She's the oldest nominee of the leading actress award by 5 years and I wouldn't be surprised if she was announced the winner.
thats the question thats been on everyones lips all awards season, lol....:D
Not with actresses. They're pretty agiest in that regard.
Having said that I think Riva is the spoiler for Lawrence now, rather than Chastain.
I think early on she looked like the main person who'd hit the spot for those people who weren't sure about Jennifer Lawrence or Jessica Chastian, but after a brief surge in support it all seems to have simmered down a lot in favour of Emanuelle Riva, i think the lack of even a nomination for BAFTA put a big hole in her campaign which is a shame as I think if she won it wouldn't be undeserved. I'd actually say Quevenhaze Wallis is the only one who has 'no chance' of winning, but I'd say at this point it's almost a two horse race between Jennifer Lawrence and Emanuelle Riva, which I think Jennifer on balance deserves slightly more, but who knows, it's exciting to have at least one category wide open at this point!
Actress is the most open of the four acting categories although I think Supporting Actor could produce a surprise. But the most open category at the moment has to be Director. There is no clue as to who might get it since Affleck has won all of the awards that generally are used as predictors. I also wonder if the eventual winner might feel they have won by default because the guy to beat on previous form wasn't even nominated this time.
Oh I thought after GG and BAFTA Christoph Waltz is looking like he's pulling ahead a bit? But I guess your right and there's still room for a shock, although I think if it happens it'll come from Robert De Niro as opposed to Tommy Lee Jones. Director is an interesting that I'd totally forgotten about, Ben Affleck winning everything had actually made me almost forget it was a race, it'll be an interesting one indeed!
Jessica Tandy was, I believe, 80 when she won for "Driving Miss Daisy".
Tommy Lee Jones won the Screen Actors Guild award for supporting actor and the actors make up the biggest bloc of voters in the academy so there's still a possibility he'll do it but after Waltz's win at the weekend he must be feeling more secure. And the SAG aren't always the best predictor.
And the average age for an Oscar voter is pretty high too!
Lawrence or Riva should get it. I predict Wallis though because the AA like to create a shock and quite frankly the line-up for best actress isn't that great. So its a good opportunity to give the Oscars a headline.
i think a riva triumph will be shock enough but counter-balanced by the rivatics who swear by her "masterclass" of a performance in amour.
Do you mean Watts?
Yeah, I know. Two of the last ten winners in this category have been over 60 so it's obviously possible, but it is a handicap.
Ahahahaha, dream on. I love Naomi, but she has no chance.
Are you basing this prediction on your personal opinion of her performance? If so (and I'm certain your answer will be yes because there's been absolutely no reason to expect her to take it), then you're doing it wrong and I suggest you prepare for disappointment on February 25th.
Wallis is the name of a nominee....
roberto benigni won best actor for life is beautiful
And Jean Dujardin won last year of course.
It wouldn't be strange if Riva won, but when the nominations were announced all the buzz was about Jennifer Lawrence and Jessica Chastain, and Lawrence won at the Golden Globes and the SAGs, so I would be a bit surprised if she didn't win.
*shallow note* just the mention of his name still makes me swoon...:o