Tories to come third in Euro elections behind Labour and Ukip, poll warns
Judge Mental
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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10575868/Tories-to-come-third-in-Euro-elections-behind-Labour-and-Ukip-poll-warns.html
'The YouGov poll for The Sun predicts that in the May elections, Labour would receive 32 per cent of the vote, Ukip would get 26 per cent and the Conservatives would get just 23 per cent.
It would leave Labour with 28 MEPs in the European Parliament, up 15. Ukip would return 23, up ten, and the Tories would return 15, down 11 seats.
The poll predicts that the Liberal Democrats would lose all 11 of their MEPs.
Coming third to Ukip would leave the Conservatives battling to convince voters that the party can win the general election in 2015'.
I'm no fan of UKIP but I think the Tories are in deep do-do - and that makes me very happy.
'The YouGov poll for The Sun predicts that in the May elections, Labour would receive 32 per cent of the vote, Ukip would get 26 per cent and the Conservatives would get just 23 per cent.
It would leave Labour with 28 MEPs in the European Parliament, up 15. Ukip would return 23, up ten, and the Tories would return 15, down 11 seats.
The poll predicts that the Liberal Democrats would lose all 11 of their MEPs.
Coming third to Ukip would leave the Conservatives battling to convince voters that the party can win the general election in 2015'.
I'm no fan of UKIP but I think the Tories are in deep do-do - and that makes me very happy.
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If these results get repeated in the Euros and the Tories don't show any significant improvement in polling between now and then, it's going to be a pretty glum time for the Tories.
What particularly interested me was the demographic of the poll.
UKIP support among the over 65....38%
UKIP support among the 25-39s...12%
It wouldn't be good news for Labour either. If a year before a General Election they can't beat a one-man party then they really need to start worrying about their ability to get out their vote.
http://forums.digitalspy.co.uk/showthread.php?t=1931378
Labour would have the most UK MEP's if this poll is correct.
And what difference would that make to anyone's life?
Except that they would have done wouldn't they? It would be the governing party that wouldn't have beaten them.
Not a lot which is why people vote very differently in EU elections.
About the same amount of difference as UKIP having the second greatest numbers of MEPs.
Well Labour sit in one of the two big influential party groupings and so more Labour MEPs in this grouping will increase their own influence here. On the other hand the Tories sit in an uninfluential little group with eastern European nationalists and homophobes. UKIPs grouping is even wierder.
I did almost giggle when I read about the Conservatives self imposed exile by making friens with nationalists and homophobes.
And UKIP is even wierder. Nearly half of all their MEPs have been expelled or defected or quit. Wonder if they'll be able to do better in the 2014-2019 EU parliamentary session. Though if British voters chose to leave the EU, UKIPs EU parliamentary shelf life might be shorter still.
What about support amongst the 40-64s ?
And turnout is even lower than the 30% to 35% turnout at local elections.
One or a hundred threads on it doesn't make it any less real.
It's time for Tories to face the music and come to terms with this little bubble buster.:D
With the economy showing signs of recovery and people beginning to feel better off by the summer, the Tory vote will rise just in time for the general election in 2015. If they can't win outright then they'll enter into another coalition with the Lib Dems if only for the sake of continuity.
I don't believe Ed Miliband will be able to become prime minister and his failings, weaknesses and student-like persona will ultimately put off the electorate. The election campaign has only just begun and this is the first time we've ever had a fixed-term so the build up will be very different to usual.
It's all to play for.
Seeing as Tory popularity appears to be built around cuts and causing pain, I'm not too sure this is a given. An improving economy could well mean people have less of a taste for austerity and what the Tory party stand for. Let's face it, the Tories are only really in off the back of the austerity ticket. I can't imagine austerity is going to be as popular in better economic times.
You can believe what you like, however at the moment most evidence points to the opposite of what you say happening.
Plausible forecast - the fact is that Labour are not far enough ahead at this point in the cycle to be assured of victory. As the polls inevitably narrow the closer we get to the election it is looking more likely that there will be no overall winner and more coalition government is on its way - unfortunately.
If you look at most polls you will see the same effect for the Tories - huge support amongst pensioners little amongst the young.
Yet for the Lib Dems and Labour its reversed - as we saw in 2010 where the LDs did far worse on election day than expected as they were doing best amongst the young who then didn't vote.
As people get older they tend to get more right wing/conservative - because they have more to lose and have worked hard for what they have. Most UKIP and Tory voters now in their 60s probably backed Labour in their youth.
And of course the elderly vote!
Like what?
Or were you just bumping the thread?
Painful reading by any chance?
I may vote UKIP. it is pretty obvious how the election is going to go. I expect and want them to do well.
i was just wondering why having posted in the thread twice already jol posted one of his generics.