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Scottish Vote Pedictions, what do you reckon ?
DangerBrother
Posts: 1,623 Forum Member
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Yes 39% No 61%
I reckon the No vote will pull away now that things are getting serious.
If I had a vote I would vote No, but if any pollster had asked me in the last few weeks I would have said I would vote Yes, just to see more toadying from Westminister.
I reckon the No vote will pull away now that things are getting serious.
If I had a vote I would vote No, but if any pollster had asked me in the last few weeks I would have said I would vote Yes, just to see more toadying from Westminister.
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Then watch the riots.
50.00% No
Yes 44%
No: 56%
Yes 46%
Either way, it'd be better for everyone if it was won by one side at least 60/40, or it's going to get pretty bitter after the result.
The general polling evidence still shows a small No vote majority and the detailed polling evidence indicates that the Yes campaign is particularly lagging behind in the support from women and young people.
Next, there is the spiral of silence effect whereby the unpopular opinion is underrepresented in the polling evidence because voters say they're undecided or refuse to take part in any poll. The patriotic and romantic option is being presented as a Yes vote and the staid option as being a No vote and it's that latter vote that's now being underrecorded. Ben Page, the CEO of pollsters Ipsos-Mori, has gone on record that he thinks this spiral of silence aspect is featuring in this referendum but it's very difficult to measure and record since they don't have a baseline comparison, i.e. a previous Scottish independence referendum. That's probably worth a few extra percentage points to the No campaign.
Based on all the above, I'm still going to call this a modest No vote win on Thursday. If the BBC, ITN or Sky News are doing exit polls on Thursday night after 10pm when the polls close, then they're probably worth paying attention to since they're generally more accurate that pre-voting opinion polls.
Off topic, but what would happen if it were a 50/50 split? Probably won't happen but I'd like to know. Will it be a coin flip? Rock paper scissors? Another vote?
There's an article on the BBC website today about exactly that.
The general gist of it seems to be "noone's thought to put a tie-break into the rules".
I will be so upset.
It will be a bereavement for me.
I'm crying now.
If it is what Scotland wants, I'll get over it.
The Yes campaign have been on a mission to register voters for the last few months and now over 97% of those eligible are registered to vote Many of them have been off the electoral register since the days of the Poll Tax IMO they are not registering to vote No and many of them are off the radar for the pollsters as they don't have phones or computers to be canvased
That's the vibe I get as well
I understand and sympathise with both sides of the argument.
If the Polls are anything to go buy, the percentages are so close either result is going to end in resentment.
I personally think it should only be decided by a clear majority because a decision of this magnitude should not be decided by just a few percent (just my opinion though)
Its a Scottish decision though and its being decided by Scottish people so what ever the result I feel everyone has to respect it.
Sometimes it concerns me that a portion of people are voting solely on a Anti Tory Anti English probably think Braveheart was a reality programme Agenda, Which I think Alex Salmond plays on which I think can be a bit below the belt sometimes.
If that's peoples prerogative though who am I to judge.
The thing that baffles me with the NO campaign is its so heavily endorsed by Rich and Famous celebrities most of which live in England and truly have their own interests at heart. (in my opinion though)
I think all the Home nations should have a referendum maybe every 10 or 20 years (including England) Because love or hate the Referendum it has bought to light a huge section of the Scottish population that's is obviously very unhappy with Society within the U.K.
I think once all the votes have been counted a good 55-60% of people will vote NO for an independent Scotland (in my opinion though)
I do think this is the starting point for Scottish Independence though, I can only see it getting stronger from hear on in.
Even if its just purely for the fact that it has already before a single vote has been cast given the Scottish Parliament more powers than before.
Do I want to see Scottish Independence ? of course not we are small enough as it is without carving up Britain.
If Scotland Votes for Independence though, I shall be disappointed but I shall wish them well because with a leader like Alex Salmond at the helm I think you may need it.
Most of all though I hope the Referendum goes smoothly and peacefully without disruption and negativity.
We truly don't need more violence in our world at this time.
Selfishly as well I do like a bottle of Irn Bru from time to time and I don't want to have to pay Import taxes on it.
So good luck Scotland,
From the English Born Quarter Welsh, Quarter Scot half yank with Nordic and German lineage.
Yes: 4/1
No: 1/4
Three polls in tomorrow's papers are all giving 52% No, 48% Yes (source = Radio Five Live).
The problem though is that those polls are formulated using previous voters so they're meaningless in this instance due to all the first time voters. It could easily be a landslide win for either side.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2757621/Leading-pollster-says-referendum-biggest-embarrassment-industry-1992-general-election.html