What the hell was going on with the Sporting Life replays from Leopardstown today?
Only saw the action well after the race began in both the 2nd and 3rd races on the card. The commentator changed in the 3rd race, (that's no bad thing - it was Dessie Scahill)initially), and there was branches on a tree constantly staying in the same place on the video.
Free Eagle seriously impressive in the 5.15 at leopardstown.
He was the favourite for the 2000 Guineas last season and finished 2nd to Australia in a tail-end 2 year old race last season. Then got injured but he has certainly been brought back in great form by Dermot Weld after a year off.
Big shock in Ireland as The Grey Gatsby comes from last to first, rounds the field and pips Australia on the line
Brilliant !
Yes - the two pacemakers leaders went ridiculously quick in the race. Really benefitted the Grey Gatsby and just got the better of Australia.
I know Australia was an extremely short price, but he still ran well compared to Tapestry and Darwin who badly flopped for Aidan O'Brien in earlier races on the card,, Not a good day for Coolmore at all. Tapestry in particular ran deplorably considering he beat Mukhaddram at York last time out. He was struggling badly today from a long way out.
What the hell was going on with the Sporting Life replays from Leopardstown today?
Only saw the action well after the race began in both the 2nd and 3rd races on the card. The commentator changed in the 3rd race, (that's no bad thing - it was Dessie Scahill)initially), and there was branches on a tree constantly staying in the same place on the video.
Bizarre!
Same on ATR, I think the feed went down so we had the big screen view (hence the trees) with Gary O'Brien commentating.
Same on ATR, I think the feed went down so we had the big screen view (hence the trees) with Gary O'Brien commentating.
yes.......the feed did go down during Saturday afternoon......I had one running at Bath and as I flicked over at race time they were saying that they were going to record the Bath race and show it after the Irish one.....but then the Irish feed went down so they showed the Bath race
Big shock in Ireland as The Grey Gatsby comes from last to first, rounds the field and pips Australia on the line
Brilliant !
Just watched that and you wouldn't have given a hope in hell for the winner - must have traded big on the exchanges in running. What a terrible ride from Joseph O'Brien though seemed to wind up Australia way too early and gave up plenty of ground with his wide course.
No way in hell is Australia the superstar that O'Brien thinks he is and is simply the best of a pretty mediocre middle distance 3yo lot imho.
Also notice the once mighty Treve was only fourth in France today - wee Frankie must be having a sly little laugh to himself.:D
Just watched that and you wouldn't have given a hope in hell for the winner - must have traded big on the exchanges in running. What a terrible ride from Joseph O'Brien though seemed to wind up Australia way too early and gave up plenty of ground with his wide course.
No way in hell is Australia the superstar that O'Brien thinks he is and is simply the best of a pretty mediocre middle distance 3yo lot imho.
Also notice the once mighty Treve was only fourth in France today - wee Frankie must be having a sly little laugh to himself.:D
Aidan does have a 'greatest ever' every year........
As for Treve......if she'd been retired after the Arc she'd be on the same pedestal as Zarkava........just shows that it can be a big risk keeping them in training at 4 if they've already won everything.........
A mixed weekend for short priced favourites with Treve, Australia, Toronado, Flintshire and Leading Light all losing. I'm sure Frankie must have a wry smile and he'll have felt even better after his win on Ruler of the World. As for the Arc trials the only interesting winner was Ectot and the Arc looks a pretty open race.
The Derby form stood up pretty well in the Leger and Kingston Hill did well to win as he had a lot to do in the straight.
Meanwhile Kingman could miss the QEII after getting a throat infection, hopefully some Tunes will sort him out.
Scottish Grand National-winning jockey Richie McGrath, together with former trainer Kate Walton, has been charged with passing on inside information
It is alleged the pair conspired with registered persons Mark Aspey, Carl Flint, Kristian Robson, David Stevens and David Greenwood and/or others unknown to use inside information about the likely performance of horses for betting purposes.
It is also alleged McGrath was prepared, if necessary, to omit to ride the horse on its merits so as to prevent it from winning or being placed in the race.
The BHA said a total of 57 races are potentially involved in the investigation, from October 2009 until April 2012.
McGrath's solicitor Andrew Chalk said the rider, who is a board member at the Professional Jockeys Association, was "shocked" at the charges and "vigorously maintains his innocence".
I'm a bit confused about the Rumble of Thunder case which the RP highlights. Lay bets were placed and the race is under investigation but McGrath won it on the 6/4fav by as many as 33 lengths?!
I appreciate a large number of his rides are being investigated, but difficult to deduce he did anything wrong from the above example.
I'm a bit confused about the Rumble of Thunder case which the RP highlights. Lay bets were placed and the race is under investigation but McGrath won it on the 6/4fav by as many as 33 lengths?!
I appreciate a large number of his rides are being investigated, but difficult to deduce he did anything wrong from the above example.
Good to see Hillstar get the head in front. Keeps the Scoop6 dream alive!
That Royal Razalma is a frustrating horse, wanders about when hitting the front. Should have placed at least there at Ayr to return me some place money. Maybe Portman could stick some headgear on as plenty of raw ability but won't concentrate on the job.
I like Hopes n Dreams in the 3.20 at Hamilton today.
Loves Hamilton and small field conditions races. Likely to get an easy lead (although Another Wise Kid has been racing prominently recently).
Baccarat is a very short price He's an improver that ran 6th in the Group 1 Sprint Cup last time. If he reproduces that run, he should win. However, his best form has come in big fields and he's a hold-up horse. Too short a price, in my opinion.
Krypton Factor would have a clear chance on old form (he's won the Group Golden Shaheen at Meydan, as well as finishing 3rd in the Golden Jubilee at Royal Ascot last season). However, he is with a different yard (small yard at that) and has run poorly on two starts since returning from an absence.
So it's Hopes n Dreams for me. Here's hoping......
I have to day he is drifting like a barge in the market though. RP Spotlight forecast he would start at 5/1. Best price available at the moment is 14/1!
As an aside, why the hell is Bix running in this race? He is totally and utterly out of his depth. It's not even a particularly valuable race. Alan Berry seems to make a habit of entering his horses in this way!
In the 3.30 at Plumpton, I will plump (oh dear!) for Hinton Indiana.
Looks a real improver for Dan Skelton. He has been put up 16lbs since his last run but has won his last two races. Won extremely easily last time (albeit it was only a class 5). Conditions suit. Price is quite short at 15/8 but it doesn't look a great race.
Addiction is probably the danger. Come a close 2nd on his last two starts but that seems to be him - 2nd six times in 19 races (and only won once). He's coming back from a break and is on a career-high mark too. Ballyvoneen may have some sort of chance too but he is also on a career high mark and is coming back from a 4 month odd break with a claimer booked).
Green Bank would have a good chance on his best form but is badly out of sorts at the moment. Good jockey booking in Aidan Coleman (but then Noel Fehily has been on board for his last two races and I;'d say he's a good jockey too).
As an aside, why the hell is Bix running in this race? He is totally and utterly out of his depth. It's not even a particularly valuable race. Alan Berry seems to make a habit of entering his horses in this way!
I see that Alan Berry owns the horse as well as training it so I guess he's just entering it in races that he thinks will cut to small fields and he'll pick up some prize money.......5 runners today and prize money down to 5th
Couple of NRs and he'd probably have his biggest pay day by finishing 3rd !
Gutted I missed Krypton Factor. What a price at 10/1. I know he hasn't been in top form of late but there were reasons to think he could bounce back today. Much too big at that price anyway.
Gutted I missed Krypton Factor. What a price at 10/1. I know he hasn't been in top form of late but there were reasons to think he could bounce back today. Much too big at that price anyway.
Yes, he won easily.
He is the trainer's first ever winner.
Hopes n Dreams missed the break and was held up. That didn't help his chances and he was well beaten. The hot favourite flopped badly - finished second last. I got that right at least - thought he was far too short.
Time to have a little play around with another system.
This one picks two horses in two races and places 1-pt bets on the cross doubles, win only.
So that's 4-pts per bet.
I have a multitude of criteria I use to determine which races to pick which I'm not going to dive in to as there are too many of them, but it basically uses seven years of previous results with similar criteria to try and identify cost-effective races.
I've run an analysis of these seven years which provided 1740 bets (2 every three days on average) of which 739 were winning bets (42.5%) , staking 6960-pts and returning 8043.26-pts, a profit of 1083.26-pts and an ROI of 15.56%. The ROI has been pretty steady throughout the seven years, varying from 12.62% in 2008 to as high as 17.78% in 2010.
In all cases the determining factor is number of runners and the prices of the top three in the betting. I have to make a decision on the qualifying races quite early so occassionally will select races which by the time of the off won't quite fit the criteria (usually if there a spate of late withdrawals), but will have to stick with them.
As far as prices are concerned, the favourite can be no shorter than 5/4 and the prices difference bettwen the 2nd and 3rd favourite must be at least 0.75 of a pt.
I'll note the bookie to be used and it'll always be BOG. If there are any rule 4s applied due to NR, I'll have to ignore this as I'm not actually putting bets on (can't from work) so won't know what the impact of the NRs actually is.
Todays picks as follows are with B365
Hamilton 150 Hard n Sharp (7/4) and Landing Night (11/4)
Kempton 210 Game Show (15/8) and Classic Villager (5/2)
There are a couple of races I might consider for a second bet later if conditions apply.
Cheers dart.........I'll watch those races if I'm in........
(the sun's out so I'm tempted by an hour or two in the park !)
BTW........if I'm in and watch them would it count as a spoiler if I posted results ?.......are you recording the racing to watch later or intending to avoid the scores for any reason ?
Cheers dart.........I'll watch those races if I'm in........
(the sun's out so I'm tempted by an hour or two in the park !)
BTW........if I'm in and watch them would it count as a spoiler if I posted results ?.......are you recording the racing to watch later or intending to avoid the scores for any reason ?
No go ahead, I get to watch so little racing on weekdays that I'm more interested in systems that don't rely on having watched it
I forgot to add that the idea for this system came from the Geegeez site, so I can't take credit for it, I've just adapted it for my own purposes and retro-fitted it to the results I've got stored.
1st 1 Hard N Sharp (IRE) 15/8 f
2nd 3 Shootingsta (IRE) 5/2
Drifted (was 2/1 opening show) but won pretty easy in the end although the 2nd was catching it after being held up behind fading horses. Never thought the 2nd would get to your horse.
Landing Night made much of the running then faded to finish 4th
1st 1 Hard N Sharp (IRE) 15/8 f
2nd 3 Shootingsta (IRE) 5/2
Drifted (was 2/1 opening show) but won pretty easy in the end although the 2nd was catching it after being held up behind fading horses. Never thought the 2nd would get to your horse.
Landing Night made much of the running then faded to finish 4th
Both this and the 2:10 qualified at 10:40 this morning for race type, number of runners and at-the-time prices. If I'd waited until nearer the off neither would have done as the the price difference between 2nd/3rd fav was too small.
Not complaining, so 2.875-pts going on the 2:10
Comments
Brilliant !
Only saw the action well after the race began in both the 2nd and 3rd races on the card. The commentator changed in the 3rd race, (that's no bad thing - it was Dessie Scahill)initially), and there was branches on a tree constantly staying in the same place on the video.
Bizarre!
He was the favourite for the 2000 Guineas last season and finished 2nd to Australia in a tail-end 2 year old race last season. Then got injured but he has certainly been brought back in great form by Dermot Weld after a year off.
Yes - the two pacemakers leaders went ridiculously quick in the race. Really benefitted the Grey Gatsby and just got the better of Australia.
I know Australia was an extremely short price, but he still ran well compared to Tapestry and Darwin who badly flopped for Aidan O'Brien in earlier races on the card,, Not a good day for Coolmore at all. Tapestry in particular ran deplorably considering he beat Mukhaddram at York last time out. He was struggling badly today from a long way out.
Same on ATR, I think the feed went down so we had the big screen view (hence the trees) with Gary O'Brien commentating.
yes.......the feed did go down during Saturday afternoon......I had one running at Bath and as I flicked over at race time they were saying that they were going to record the Bath race and show it after the Irish one.....but then the Irish feed went down so they showed the Bath race
Just watched that and you wouldn't have given a hope in hell for the winner - must have traded big on the exchanges in running. What a terrible ride from Joseph O'Brien though seemed to wind up Australia way too early and gave up plenty of ground with his wide course.
No way in hell is Australia the superstar that O'Brien thinks he is and is simply the best of a pretty mediocre middle distance 3yo lot imho.
Also notice the once mighty Treve was only fourth in France today - wee Frankie must be having a sly little laugh to himself.:D
Aidan does have a 'greatest ever' every year........
As for Treve......if she'd been retired after the Arc she'd be on the same pedestal as Zarkava........just shows that it can be a big risk keeping them in training at 4 if they've already won everything.........
The Derby form stood up pretty well in the Leger and Kingston Hill did well to win as he had a lot to do in the straight.
Meanwhile Kingman could miss the QEII after getting a throat infection, hopefully some Tunes will sort him out.
It is alleged the pair conspired with registered persons Mark Aspey, Carl Flint, Kristian Robson, David Stevens and David Greenwood and/or others unknown to use inside information about the likely performance of horses for betting purposes.
It is also alleged McGrath was prepared, if necessary, to omit to ride the horse on its merits so as to prevent it from winning or being placed in the race.
The BHA said a total of 57 races are potentially involved in the investigation, from October 2009 until April 2012.
McGrath's solicitor Andrew Chalk said the rider, who is a board member at the Professional Jockeys Association, was "shocked" at the charges and "vigorously maintains his innocence".
http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/article/2/9474757/racing-news-richard-mcgrath-and-kate-walton-charged-by-bha
McGrath is a regular contributor to the programme.
I appreciate a large number of his rides are being investigated, but difficult to deduce he did anything wrong from the above example.
I'm 99% sure that's a picture of Rab Havlin. It certainly isn't Richie McGrath, anyway.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/racing/article-2759651/Richie-McGrath-facing-10-year-ban-corruption-charges.html
probably the end of his broadcast career
That example does seem odd
That Royal Razalma is a frustrating horse, wanders about when hitting the front. Should have placed at least there at Ayr to return me some place money. Maybe Portman could stick some headgear on as plenty of raw ability but won't concentrate on the job.
Loves Hamilton and small field conditions races. Likely to get an easy lead (although Another Wise Kid has been racing prominently recently).
Baccarat is a very short price He's an improver that ran 6th in the Group 1 Sprint Cup last time. If he reproduces that run, he should win. However, his best form has come in big fields and he's a hold-up horse. Too short a price, in my opinion.
Krypton Factor would have a clear chance on old form (he's won the Group Golden Shaheen at Meydan, as well as finishing 3rd in the Golden Jubilee at Royal Ascot last season). However, he is with a different yard (small yard at that) and has run poorly on two starts since returning from an absence.
So it's Hopes n Dreams for me. Here's hoping......
I have to day he is drifting like a barge in the market though. RP Spotlight forecast he would start at 5/1. Best price available at the moment is 14/1!
As an aside, why the hell is Bix running in this race? He is totally and utterly out of his depth. It's not even a particularly valuable race. Alan Berry seems to make a habit of entering his horses in this way!
Looks a real improver for Dan Skelton. He has been put up 16lbs since his last run but has won his last two races. Won extremely easily last time (albeit it was only a class 5). Conditions suit. Price is quite short at 15/8 but it doesn't look a great race.
Addiction is probably the danger. Come a close 2nd on his last two starts but that seems to be him - 2nd six times in 19 races (and only won once). He's coming back from a break and is on a career-high mark too. Ballyvoneen may have some sort of chance too but he is also on a career high mark and is coming back from a 4 month odd break with a claimer booked).
Green Bank would have a good chance on his best form but is badly out of sorts at the moment. Good jockey booking in Aidan Coleman (but then Noel Fehily has been on board for his last two races and I;'d say he's a good jockey too).
I see that Alan Berry owns the horse as well as training it so I guess he's just entering it in races that he thinks will cut to small fields and he'll pick up some prize money.......5 runners today and prize money down to 5th
Couple of NRs and he'd probably have his biggest pay day by finishing 3rd !
Yes, he won easily.
He is the trainer's first ever winner.
Hopes n Dreams missed the break and was held up. That didn't help his chances and he was well beaten. The hot favourite flopped badly - finished second last. I got that right at least - thought he was far too short.
This one picks two horses in two races and places 1-pt bets on the cross doubles, win only.
So that's 4-pts per bet.
I have a multitude of criteria I use to determine which races to pick which I'm not going to dive in to as there are too many of them, but it basically uses seven years of previous results with similar criteria to try and identify cost-effective races.
I've run an analysis of these seven years which provided 1740 bets (2 every three days on average) of which 739 were winning bets (42.5%) , staking 6960-pts and returning 8043.26-pts, a profit of 1083.26-pts and an ROI of 15.56%. The ROI has been pretty steady throughout the seven years, varying from 12.62% in 2008 to as high as 17.78% in 2010.
In all cases the determining factor is number of runners and the prices of the top three in the betting. I have to make a decision on the qualifying races quite early so occassionally will select races which by the time of the off won't quite fit the criteria (usually if there a spate of late withdrawals), but will have to stick with them.
As far as prices are concerned, the favourite can be no shorter than 5/4 and the prices difference bettwen the 2nd and 3rd favourite must be at least 0.75 of a pt.
I'll note the bookie to be used and it'll always be BOG. If there are any rule 4s applied due to NR, I'll have to ignore this as I'm not actually putting bets on (can't from work) so won't know what the impact of the NRs actually is.
Todays picks as follows are with B365
Hamilton 150 Hard n Sharp (7/4) and Landing Night (11/4)
Kempton 210 Game Show (15/8) and Classic Villager (5/2)
There are a couple of races I might consider for a second bet later if conditions apply.
(the sun's out so I'm tempted by an hour or two in the park !)
BTW........if I'm in and watch them would it count as a spoiler if I posted results ?.......are you recording the racing to watch later or intending to avoid the scores for any reason ?
No go ahead, I get to watch so little racing on weekdays that I'm more interested in systems that don't rely on having watched it
I forgot to add that the idea for this system came from the Geegeez site, so I can't take credit for it, I've just adapted it for my own purposes and retro-fitted it to the results I've got stored.
1st 1 Hard N Sharp (IRE) 15/8 f
2nd 3 Shootingsta (IRE) 5/2
Drifted (was 2/1 opening show) but won pretty easy in the end although the 2nd was catching it after being held up behind fading horses. Never thought the 2nd would get to your horse.
Landing Night made much of the running then faded to finish 4th
Both this and the 2:10 qualified at 10:40 this morning for race type, number of runners and at-the-time prices. If I'd waited until nearer the off neither would have done as the the price difference between 2nd/3rd fav was too small.
Not complaining, so 2.875-pts going on the 2:10