Oil price drop would have put Independent Scotland in crisis

AdsAds Posts: 37,037
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Looks like Scotland dodged a bullet!

http://m.ft.com/cms/s/0/d97d49ce-877d-11e4-bc7c-00144feabdc0.html

You only have to look at Russia to see the danger of not diversifying an oil heavy economy
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Comments

  • BrokenArrowBrokenArrow Posts: 21,665
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    If it was a short term thing, it wouldn't matter, but Qatar is thinking the price could remain depressed for 15 years.

    http://news.sky.com/story/1395975/opecs-dominance-of-energy-market-is-over
  • Cheetah666Cheetah666 Posts: 16,036
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    Scotland's economy is diversified. Besides, even if they'd voted yes in September they still wouldn't be independent yet so a yes vote wouldn't have made any difference to the current situation. It was going to be something like the middle of 2016 before they actually left the UK.
  • Phil 2804Phil 2804 Posts: 21,846
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    Cheetah666 wrote: »
    Scotland's economy is diversified. Besides, even if they'd voted yes in September they still wouldn't be independent yet so a yes vote wouldn't have made any difference to the current situation. It was going to be something like the middle of 2016 before they actually left the UK.


    The economy is diversified yes, but you still can't escape the fact that 40% of Scotland's GDP is generated in the North East of the country by 10% of population. This is a region that has been recession proof for 30 years but is now facing recession and job losses next year. A large part of the SNP economic plan was based on leeching money from the economy of the North East, it still is, with the new property taxes cleverly designed to bring the average Aberdeen home into the higher bands.
  • deptfordbakerdeptfordbaker Posts: 22,368
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    If it was a short term thing, it wouldn't matter, but Qatar is thinking the price could remain depressed for 15 years.

    http://news.sky.com/story/1395975/opecs-dominance-of-energy-market-is-over

    What will they do when oil runs out, or someone invents clean limitless fusion power? All the worlds oil, gas and coal will become worthless overnight.
  • barky99barky99 Posts: 3,921
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    current oil price isn't relevant as we wouldn't have been independent now -- all it really flags up is UK's failure to create an oil fund
  • BillyJamesTBillyJamesT Posts: 2,934
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    barky99 wrote: »
    current oil price isn't relevant as we wouldn't have been independent now -- all it really flags up is UK's failure to create an oil fund

    Precisely
  • Big Boy BarryBig Boy Barry Posts: 35,293
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    Having no currency would have put them into a bigger crisis.
  • anndra_wanndra_w Posts: 6,557
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    Having no currency would have put them into a bigger crisis.

    Has there ever been a country that hasn't had a currency? You either set up your own or use someone else's.
  • GormagonGormagon Posts: 1,473
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    anndra_w wrote: »
    Has there ever been a country that hasn't had a currency? You either set up your own or use someone else's.

    And the choice was Sterling or Euro
  • Big Boy BarryBig Boy Barry Posts: 35,293
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    Scotland's currency choices were rule by England, or rule by the European Central Bank


    Freeeeeeedom!!!!
  • GormagonGormagon Posts: 1,473
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    Scotland's currency choices were rule by England, or rule by the European Central Bank


    Freeeeeeedom!!!!

    Well that is not strictly true. Slammod said we could have sterling on our terms, or the euro, on our terms. They both said **** of if you join us you will have no option but to do so on our terms, but salmond thought that was for negotiation..
  • Big Boy BarryBig Boy Barry Posts: 35,293
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    Gormagon wrote: »
    Well that is not strictly true. Slammod said we could have sterling on our terms, or the euro, on our terms. They both said **** of if you join us you will have no option but to do so on our terms, but salmond thought that was for negotiation..

    Salmond talks a lot of bollocks.

    He was under the impression that getting the UK and EU to do things that the SNP wanted was a forgone conclusion.
  • rusty123rusty123 Posts: 22,872
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    No point in continuing the indie debate now the vote is in. I'm only interested in how the oil price drop impacts on the actual economy - not an imaginary one.
  • Black SheepBlack Sheep Posts: 15,219
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    Precisely

    Unfortunately for the never facing reality Nats Scotland would have suffered even at the negotiating point as business would have had even more reasons to relocate elsewhere.

    The Nats like to whitewash over the economy when it comes to independence and everything was always going to be just dandy no Matter what reality you face them with.
  • ImpingerImpinger Posts: 3,744
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    barky99 wrote: »
    current oil price isn't relevant as we wouldn't have been independent now -- all it really flags up is UK's failure to create an oil fund

    All your post flags up is you admitting that, had the vote been yes, you would have been relieved that independence hadn't actually kicked in yet. Or in other words, glad that Scotland was still part of the UK at the time.
  • DaewosDaewos Posts: 8,345
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    And how much is the UK Exchequer losing because of the price collapse? Why does nobody seem overly bothered about that?
  • ResonanceResonance Posts: 16,638
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    Daewos wrote: »
    And how much is the UK Exchequer losing because of the price collapse? Why does nobody seem overly bothered about that?

    Isn't it supposed to be neutral (UK wide), i.e. a lower oil price does as much good to the economy and the tax take as it does bad.
  • DaewosDaewos Posts: 8,345
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    Resonance wrote: »
    Isn't it supposed to be neutral (UK wide), i.e. a lower oil price does as much good to the economy and the tax take as it does bad.

    Just seen that is about 2% of the total tax revenues. I always thought it was worth more - learn something new every day :)
  • MonsterMunch99MonsterMunch99 Posts: 2,475
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    Daewos wrote: »
    And how much is the UK Exchequer losing because of the price collapse? Why does nobody seem overly bothered about that?

    It doesn't give people an opportunity to gloat.

    Strange that.
  • gulliverfoylegulliverfoyle Posts: 6,318
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    you forgot the socialist magic money tree!

    do keep up
  • David TeeDavid Tee Posts: 22,833
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    Daewos wrote: »
    And how much is the UK Exchequer losing because of the price collapse? Why does nobody seem overly bothered about that?

    A very fair question.

    Unfortunately there are too many here who insist Scotland is self-sufficient, doesn't need the RUK yadda yadda so it's really just a matter of priorities as to who needs to face up to the reality of the effect of a drop in the price of oil more.
  • Old Man 43Old Man 43 Posts: 6,214
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    Daewos wrote: »
    Just seen that is about 2% of the total tax revenues. I always thought it was worth more - learn something new every day :)

    It was in the past but the amount of money the Government get's from the North Sea has been going down for some time now.
  • BrokenArrowBrokenArrow Posts: 21,665
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    David Tee wrote: »
    A very fair question.

    Unfortunately there are too many here who insist Scotland is self-sufficient, doesn't need the RUK yadda yadda so it's really just a matter of priorities as to who needs to face up to the reality of the effect of a drop in the price of oil more.

    We are net importers of oil, so its affect on the current account is positive and the oil revenues are too small as a percentage of income to have much affect.
  • Big Boy BarryBig Boy Barry Posts: 35,293
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    you forgot the socialist magic money tree!

    do keep up

    You mean the one that private owned banks went cap in hand to?


    Capitalists are the biggest advocates of socialism, but only when it suits them.
  • JohnbeeJohnbee Posts: 4,019
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    I am afraid that this thread is just wrong. Scotland was not independent and would not yet be independent if they had voted yes. The plummeting oil price would have been a terrific boon for Scotland, as it would be a huge bargaining point, and greatly aid them when, later on they were independent, the price went up again.
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