Budget: Discussion Thread

David TeeDavid Tee Posts: 22,833
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BBC Two 11:30 to 15:00, BBC News channel, Radio 4 12:00 to 14:00, 5 Live 12:00 to 14:00,
Parliament TV
Twitter: #Budget2014.

Depending on your political slant, you might wish to follow the online running commentary at either the BBC, the Guardian or the Telegraph. I don't think the Mail do such things (maybe they do).

There's a whisper that Osborne has a surprise up his sleeve although that may just be wishful thinking. Labour appear to be leading with the 24 Tory Tax increases (Guido rather helpfully points out that the Bedroom Tax isn't included among them).

For me, the most interesting part of the day will be Ed Balls's reply. There's been more or less universal agreement that he's made a mess of the last two - this is his chance to re-establish some credibility. If he fails, I think there will be serious questions asked of him.
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Comments

  • northantsgirlnorthantsgirl Posts: 4,663
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    Will there be something in the speech that has not already been pre-announced. Funding for the B45330 Nether Upton in the Marsh bypass or electrification of the 3 mile Grimshaven branch line perhaps? ;-)
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 2,967
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    I will make my comments after he annouces it, to be honest I don't expect much good to come out of it...
  • flagpoleflagpole Posts: 44,641
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    I hate lots of things about the budget.

    for the last few i've been annoyed by seeing a subtle and intelligent budget responded to by a performing sound bite monkey.

    I also hate the way we have to go to a shopping center in barnsley and ask some old woman laden with shopping what she thinks of the budget...

    'capital gains tax deferral relief for the enterprise investment scheme should be good for growth?'
    'yes but my ****...'
  • SpotSpot Posts: 25,121
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    Isn't it Miliband who'll be replying today? Traditionally, it's the leader of the opposition who replies to the budget - different rules apply to the autumn statement.
  • flagpoleflagpole Posts: 44,641
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    Spot wrote: »
    Isn't it Miliband who'll be replying today? Traditionally, it's the leader of the opposition who replies to the budget - different rules apply to the autumn statement.

    I actually thought it was traditionally the shadow chancellor? it's just recently been miliband.
  • smudges dadsmudges dad Posts: 36,989
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    flagpole wrote: »
    I hate lots of things about the budget.

    for the last few i've been annoyed by seeing a subtle and intelligent budget responded to by a performing sound bite monkey.

    I also hate the way we have to go to a shopping center in barnsley and ask some old woman laden with shopping what she thinks of the budget...

    'capital gains tax deferral relief for the enterprise investment scheme should be good for growth?'
    'yes but my ****...'

    Well, I haven't noticed any subtle and intelligent budgets for 4 years, maybe you are referring to the ones in the Scottish parliament?

    Maybe we'll get another attempt at introducing a pasty tax, and Dave will support it by announcing he bought a pasty from somewhere that doesn't exist. Will we look forward to more tax increases on profitable businesses, resulting in cancelled projects and loss of jobs again.

    Most likely is that Osborne has realised it's blatant bribe time and will be acting like the smarmy con man he is.
  • tghe-retfordtghe-retford Posts: 26,449
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    Will there be something in the speech that has not already been pre-announced. Funding for the B45330 Nether Upton in the Marsh bypass or electrification of the 3 mile Grimshaven branch line perhaps? ;-)
    The bombshells will be hidden away deep within the documentation released after the budget, combed through by economists just in time for the six 'o clock news. Meanwhile we will all be distracted by the shiny new £1 coin that everyone will be gawping at.

    I compare George Osborne to the hypnotist in Little Britain: "Look at the coin, don't look around the coin, look at the coin - you're under." *mumbles something about benefits* "3,2,1... you're back in the room".
  • eugenespeedeugenespeed Posts: 66,695
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    There's been an early leak already

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BB9lNaSog0Q
  • blueisthecolourblueisthecolour Posts: 20,125
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    I expecting a final big business giveaway - just in case they get kicked out next year.
  • TheEngineerTheEngineer Posts: 7,788
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    I expecting a final big business giveaway - just in case they get kicked out next year.

    I would announce corporation tax cut to 15% over the five years from 2015 to 2020.

    But what sort of sly underhanded political shysters would announce that sort of a "I dare you to change it" tax policy just before an election?

    Oh I remember now:

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8585059.stm
  • LandisLandis Posts: 14,855
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    Surely the key to the next GE will be "Who is feeling the effects of Growth?" That could be so finely balanced! The Tories could see strong growth for the next 12 months and still lose the Election because Labour are screaming the house down on Executive Pay and record profits. What can he do about that.

    My instinct told me that Labour were rattled/worried when Osborne hinted about a £7 NMW. That did not happen. How does Osborne feel about that and does he agree with me that he probably really needed that? Because.... big business could create some difficult headlines for the Tories . Would you bet against a major company thinking that they can negotiate a pay deal this year which cuts pensions and possibly even pay?

    I don't know what the whisper is that David Tee has mentioned. But I am having a wild guess at the target area. :)
  • David TeeDavid Tee Posts: 22,833
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    Spot wrote: »
    Isn't it Miliband who'll be replying today? Traditionally, it's the leader of the opposition who replies to the budget - different rules apply to the autumn statement.

    Yup, you're right. Ball's turn comes tomorrow. Rats.
  • LostFoolLostFool Posts: 90,647
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    Spot wrote: »
    Isn't it Miliband who'll be replying today? Traditionally, it's the leader of the opposition who replies to the budget - different rules apply to the autumn statement.

    As long as I can remember it has always been the Leader of the Opposition who replies to budgets. The Shadow Chancellor does the Autumn Statement. The reason why is lost in the mists of time.
    Will there be something in the speech that has not already been pre-announced. Funding for the B45330 Nether Upton in the Marsh bypass or electrification of the 3 mile Grimshaven branch line perhaps? ;-)

    Ever since leaking of a Budget stopped being a resigning offence there are now 3 aspects to any Budget
    1) What is leaked beforehand
    2) What is in the speech
    3) What is hidden in the detail in the published document.
  • blueisthecolourblueisthecolour Posts: 20,125
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    It was the Autumn statement that Balls messed up right?

    I know that the economy is seen as the main determinant of a government's electoral chances but I think you can overstate it. Labour won it's landslide in 1997 during the start of an economic boom. The 2008 crash was the worst ever yet Labour were 15-20 seats from staying in government.
  • flagpoleflagpole Posts: 44,641
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    Well, I haven't noticed any subtle and intelligent budgets for 4 years, maybe you are referring to the ones in the Scottish parliament?

    Maybe we'll get another attempt at introducing a pasty tax, and Dave will support it by announcing he bought a pasty from somewhere that doesn't exist. Will we look forward to more tax increases on profitable businesses, resulting in cancelled projects and loss of jobs again.

    Most likely is that Osborne has realised it's blatant bribe time and will be acting like the smarmy con man he is.

    well that is my point. the budgets recently have not been headline grabbing, they have been subtle and designed to attract business investment. hence the fastest growing economy in europe.

    the pasty tax is everything that is wrong with labour. it makes perfect sense, even you must agree that it is wrong that an independent chippy or jacket potato stall has to charge vat but FTSE listed greggs can pretend they don't sell hot food and not. labour know this too. but they find a two word slogan and use it to destroy a perfectly sensible policy.
  • LandisLandis Posts: 14,855
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    In fact.......I will go much further than in my other post.

    I am asking you to consider this. Would Osborne have hinted at a £7+ NMW without considering it it was do-able for him? Probably not.

    So here is the question, just for the hell of it. If the Tories announced the introduction of a National Living Wage* would that be the greatest game changer ever in the history of General Election campaigns??


    * I am making an assumption that they could set the initial level wherever they damn well want and that the level outside London might be more than £7 but less than the Living Wage figure which has been banded around....
  • cnbcwatchercnbcwatcher Posts: 56,681
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    There's been an early leak already

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BB9lNaSog0Q

    Just brilliant :D
  • smudges dadsmudges dad Posts: 36,989
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    flagpole wrote: »
    well that is my point. the budgets recently have not been headline grabbing, they have been subtle and designed to attract business investment. hence the fastest growing economy in europe.

    the pasty tax is everything that is wrong with labour. it makes perfect sense, even you must agree that it is wrong that an independent chippy or jacket potato stall has to charge vat but FTSE listed greggs can pretend they don't sell hot food and not. labour know this too. but they find a two word slogan and use it to destroy a perfectly sensible policy.
    Is that why the increase in the offshore supplementary tax was a disaster with jobs lost and investment delayed or abandoned? He then spent ages supplicating himself to the oil companies with the introduction of things like the small fields allowance.
  • divingbboydivingbboy Posts: 14,074
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    Here we go............
  • StaunchyStaunchy Posts: 10,904
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    /Staunchy's ears prick up at "good for savers"
  • flagpoleflagpole Posts: 44,641
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    Staunchy wrote: »
    /Staunchy's ears prick up at "good for savers"

    i heard that. god knows what he means. expansion of the tax free savings vehicles i guess.
  • LostFoolLostFool Posts: 90,647
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    flagpole wrote: »
    i heard that. god knows what he means. expansion of the tax free savings vehicles i guess.

    I wouldn't get too excited. Probably an increase in ISA limits but the Chancellor cannot do much about the current low interest rates.
  • InspirationInspiration Posts: 62,702
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    I've felt for a while now that this GE will arrive 12 months too late for Labour.

    Good news can win elections.
  • StaunchyStaunchy Posts: 10,904
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    The "hear hears" sound more bovine than usual. ;)
  • LostFoolLostFool Posts: 90,647
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    Balls looking quite jolly.

    Maybe because he knows he doesn't have to reply to this and can watch his boss make a fool of himself.
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