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weather long range forecasting

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    Phil 2804Phil 2804 Posts: 21,846
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    jsmith99 wrote: »
    You can predict anything you feel like; time will tell whether your prediction was accurate.



    "How can it be"? By being selective with the data, probably. From the phrase "all but one", I assume that the actual wettest years was before 2000? And as you say, that's "on record"; how long have weather records been kept? 250 years?

    The wettest year on record is 2000, followed by 2012, 1954, 2008 and 2002. So four of the five have ocurred in the last 12 years and all five in the last 60 years.

    The average annual rainfall over the UK has increased each decade since at least the 1960s and the 1981-2010 thirty year average is 5% higher than the 1961-1990 average. UK wide records go back 100 years, English records more than 300 years. The facts don't lie, the wettest years we have recorded in the UK have all been in the last 12 years, which fits perfectly with fact that the global climate is warming at quite some pace. Its simple meteorology a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture and deliver more rain.

    I can also testify based on my own eyes, I spent my Christmas in one of the worst affected areas of the country by this year rains, in the 36 hours to the 24th December Aberdeen Airport recorded a whole months worth of rain. This having already been the wettest year on record in the region led to some quite stunning floods that I had never seem in the region before. Even the 240mm of rain that fell on Aberdeen Airport in 36 hours in September 1995 couldn't top it as that was the end of a prolonged summer drought.

    This followed another shock flooding event in the summer when much of the city centre was submerged in water after a freak thunderstorm. If you know Aberdeen you'd know how unlikely flooding like this is in the city:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3fK027mA4jc

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lMWu9ENnAM0
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