global warming
Moony
Posts: 15,093 Forum Member
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Just read an article on BBC about the permafrost thawing.
Thing is though - looking back at earths history - Earth has only had permanent polar ice for about 20% of its life.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_and_icehouse_Earth
The natural state for this planet appears to be what is termed a "greenhouse earth".
So the question arises - can we and should we try and prevent the current warming trend - given that it seems to be trending towards the natural state of the planet?
Thing is though - looking back at earths history - Earth has only had permanent polar ice for about 20% of its life.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_and_icehouse_Earth
The natural state for this planet appears to be what is termed a "greenhouse earth".
So the question arises - can we and should we try and prevent the current warming trend - given that it seems to be trending towards the natural state of the planet?
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Yes but worldwide it is the hottest year ever.
When the hot air gets to the poles more of the heat can escape into space. When the hot air moves towards the poles, it pushes cold air towards the equator, this is why we may have more cold weather sometimes.
Yes, but it gives us a chance to spot those who don't know the difference between weather and climate, so there's that.
Near.....Far away
http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/
If the Earth gets into a runaway state (natural or Man-made) the Grandkids can sort it out or cope with it.
Nope, or correlation and causation-
https://www.nasa.gov/feature/jpl/study-sheds-new-insights-into-global-warming-trends
A new multi-institutional study of the temporary slowdown in the global average surface temperature warming trend observed between 1998 and 2013 concludes the phenomenon represented a redistribution of energy within the Earth system, with Earth’s ocean absorbing the extra heat. The phenomenon was referred to by some as the “global warming hiatus.” Global average surface temperature, measured by satellites and direct observations, is considered a key indicator of climate change.
Also referred to as 'the Pause'. Which is a problem because any slowdown in warming rates means a greater divergence between climate model's predictions and reality. Plus making it harder to hit various political warming targets, eg 2C by 2020, 2050 or whatever.
And as for weather, the flip from El Nino to La Nina's possibly lead to a sharp land temperature drop, and falling sea temperatures. So Thermageddon's likely to be postponed. Shame we've wasted billions before realising that nature > man..
It is noticeable that the proponents of man made climate change always seek to minimise the impact of natural phenomenon while maximising the impact of man.
I think it's hubris, combined with a difficulty in comprehending big & complex stuff. So global warming's all about a possible 0.5W or less per square meter energy difference. Which is a small number, but over 510,072,000 km2 of Earth, a big number.. Or still a small number compared to say, the energy exchange from a modest cyclone or hurricane.. Or just the heat lost during an El Nino. That's generally marketed as a 'warming event', but only because it's caused by warm water upwelling, which then cools, losing energy..
And of course it's been a way to make some people an awful lot of money at the expense of consumers via regulatory capture, ie energy costs.
I've been concerned about that sort of situation foe a while. It would only take one of the base load generators to go down and we would be facing rolling blackouts.
I wonder how that would be spun to take the heat off wind generation.
for safeties sake we rally need to replace some of the wind generation with more base load genarating technologies.
Ever wondered why we're being forced to pay billions for 'smart meters', who's only 'smart' function is remote disconnection? AKA 'demand management', or a way to inflate tariffs by being able to charge residential users a premium for uninterrupted power..
Two main ways.. The wind lobby claims wind should be considered a base load generation source, and the EU's plan to get every state to contribute to the 'EuroGrid'. And have interconnectors for 20% of your generating capacity. Which is nice if you're a company who's name begins with 'Siemens', or part of the renewables lobby.. Especially when that 20% includes wind's rated capacity. Assumption is there'll be wind blowing somewhere, so large parts of the EU won't go dark.
Not just that, but also how to manage grid synchronisation across any 'super grid' and keep it stable.. Which is a problem that becomes larger as intermittent capacity increases. But if it doesn't quite work out and you blow up transformers, well, good news for a company beginning with..
And just who may that be, might you ask?? ;-)
We didn't have much of s summer either, I remember Easter holiday was about 12c. Thing is I am old enough to remember being on the beach at Easter time in the same county in temperatures of 20c regularly for several years running some 25 years ago.
It's getting colder in my experience.
Do you consider your experience trumps temperature records from all over the world?
On an apochrypahal note, we have had mild winters here in Devon, since 2010.
I know the last week or two has been chilly up North.
I have no idea of the Trend, UK or Globally, apart from the figures and tables.
Different areas of Britain get different Weather. Londoncentric media were continually going "Phew! What a Scorcha!" this year. Subjectively, we didn't see it. It was "alright" down here.
Perfectly valid question.
The answer to which is that I think we're pissing in the wind if we think we can actually 'stop' the weather and make it do what we want it to do.
Whether you believe in the anthropological nature to global warming or not, I think we all accept that the climate changes with or without it.
Apparently this trend of the global climate changing to a warming period started just after the industrial revolution in the 19th century, according to the people who tell us that the warming is due to man's activity.
Just after a mini-ice age in the Victorian era. Did we really want it to remain like that?
So thinking pragmatically, do people realistically think that we can drop our carbon levels to the same output level of the 1800s when industrialisation was just getting into gear?
Seriously?
Not going to happen.
So instead of this ridiculous amount of time dedicated to scaremongering the public that it's their fault, I think time and resources would be better served with investigating what, where, and who will be affected the most if the official projections are considered to be likely, and then consider investing in realistic approaches which are actually helpful and target areas which are presumed to be more at risk.
You can't stop the planet warming, at best you can stave it off for a while, but it's still going to happen. The climate has been changing for thousands of years. It makes more sense to make provisions to deal with either extreme outcome, either warming and cooling and have practical contingency plans in place.
Trying to literally stop the weather in its tracks is a fool's errand.
Indeed. The level of ignorance ( the "it was colder last night compared to the same date last year therefore it's getting colder" scientific theory) on here by at least 2 people is quite astounding.
But is it anymore valid to look at temperature records over 20, 50, 100 or 250 years (not even a blink of the eye in the history of this planet) and try and extrapolate a meaningful trend?
Whereas Summer has been pretty "poor" up here. Plenty of days in the mid-teens, overcast and raining.
November has been pretty cold up here, we've had 3 frosts, some sleet, and some hill snow.
Alough there have been a couple of milder spells they've been brief and we've had some very cold and miserable weather.
Summers/Winters over the past few years here:
2009
Winter: Cold and Snowy
Summer: Okay (ish)
2010
Winter: Cold and Snowy
Summer: Mixed
2011
Winter: Cold and Snowy
Summer: Mixed
2012
Winter: Mild
Summer: Very Wet
2013
Winter: Cold and Snowy
Summer: Very Warm and Sunny
2014
Winter: Mild
Summer: Warm and Sunny
2015
Winter: Okay
Summer: Poor
2016
Winter: Very Mild and Very Wet
Summer: Poor
What you're describing is weather, not climate.