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16 grand gives 17 grand on Douglas Carswell
radio4extracrap
Posts: 2,933 Forum Member
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I wish I had £16 let alone 16 grand.
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radio4extracrap
Posts: 2,933 radio4extracrap
Posts: 2,933 radio4extracrap
Posts: 2,933
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not sure I would take that price.
Yes. I got 12/1 on three weeks ago - mind you just £12 !!!. Wish now I took the 7/1 on when Carswell originally defected... Walking around this weekend even 16/1 on is Generous.
Tories moved from 7/1 to 8/1. Put one on to get eight plus stake.
As for the so called Labour Party, 25/1.
Why I bet £900k on the Scottish referendum
Yes - 1/4
No - 11/4
Pretty obvious they're going to win a seat, but you'll have a nine-month wait to get your money back.
I am not so sure it is obvious. that's why you can get 1/4. Bookies are generally excellent judges. Out of interest, those odds add to an overround of 108% - so a balanced book would give the bookies 8% profit.
Are there different odds for them winning a seat other than Clacton? You could even add South Thanet in there. I would be interested in the odds of UKIP winning a seat with someone that isn't Carswell or Farage.
Have a look at Paddy Power website There are odds for over one hundred seats for the next General Election
Seat winner - Thanet South:
UKIP - 4/5
Conservatives - 5/2
Labour - 11/4
Lib Dems - 100/1
Greens - 200/1
http://sportsbeta.ladbrokes.com/UK-General-Election/Next-General-Election-Constituency-Betting/Politics-N-1z140vgZ1z140v7Z1z141ne/
That wasn't really what I was asking for. I was asking what the odds would be of UKIP winning any seat other than Clacton or Thanet South.
Eastleigh looks an interesting bet
Lib Dems 1/3
UKIP 5/2
Yeah, that could be close. Although what I was actually asking, since I don't think I've been clear enough, is could you get odds on the prospect of UKIP winning any seat, but ignoring Clacton and Thanet South. I suppose the closest is probably the odds of them winning 3 seats.
UKIP odds:
Boston & Skegness - 9/4
Camborne & Redruth - 5/1
Castle Point - 7/2
Folkestone & Hythe - 4/1
Great Grimsby - 11/4
Great Yarmouth - 7/4
Rotherham - 3/1
Thanet North - 7/2
Thurrock - 7/4
UKIP Total number of seats Less than 2.5 Evens
More than 2.5 8/11
Would suggest that if Clacton and Thanet are in the bag then more than is the bet to take for there could well be another defection or two from the Tories
UKIP total number of seats:
Under 1.5 - 11/10
Over 1.5 - 4/6
Under 4.5 - 2/7
Over 4.5 - 5/2
Under 9.5 - 1/8
Over 9.5 - 4/1
Yeah, I don't see why you wouldn't bet the over on that.
5/2 for over 4.5 seems decent, and 4/1 for over 9.5 might even be worth a couple of quid actually.
Betting on politics is becoming huge now Lots of different markets available
Under 4.5 would be the safest bet.
You obviously dont bet often. Ukip will even have 5 MPs before the General Election. The technical term is Jumping Ship.
Care to name the five MPs or is this just a UKIP wet dream you had?
as someone who has probably spent too much time gambling over the years , one thing I have learned , never ever let what you want to happen influence how you bet. its a sure way to lose money
Worth even putting on twenty to get twenty one back.. Public meeting was packed to the gunnels.
That doesn't mean everyone in your locale is voting UKIP though.
Just the ones who turned up for the meeting.
Carswell does not need "everyone" - just one more that the Tories, and by the look of the town daubed in yellow and mauve, that's extremely likely.
They'll probably win Clacton, Thanet South and one or two others, but I'll be very surprised if they win more than four seats.