Yes, that's what I thought. You obviously know your stuff, do you think it might be a bit too soon for him ? He's only an 8 year old and hasn't had much experience.
Picking your brains, are there any horses this year that have been trained with this race specifically in mind ? I've always noticed in other years that they can sometimes surprise the market, maybe not winning but gaining a place at long odds.
To answer you directly, in the last 17 runnings there have been 141 runners aged 8 or under, and a single winner (Bindaree aged 8 in 2002). Its easy to forget Long Run has been around forever but is still only 9 and to go to part two of your question, this probably firmly became his target when he unshipped in the King George. Most of the market front runners have had this in mind for some time.
It can pay to go for horses with decent pedigree sliding down the handicap. This would make Long Run, Burton Port and notably, Quito de la Roque into contenders. There are worse each way shouts than the latter who is freely available at 50/1.
Its nearly 90 years since a 13yo winner but Tidal Bay looks better than ever. When he has run well the form has worked out great. His Hennessy and Lexus runs from 2012 should put him around 167 which is why at 161 I think he is carrying 6lb less than he should.
I think he has been absolutely thrown in with only 11st 9lb - Hunt Ball rated only 2lb behind him ... on who's planet?? This is a Gold Cup winner and has run with credit in all the top races. The handicapper has taken a massive chance ...:o
This has obviously been his leanest year but missing the Cheltenham festival should be a massive bonus and at 9 he is certainly no back number. I just hope he is ridden with a bit of restraint by Waley-Cohen as he should have the class to come through after hunting them up on the first circuit.
Pricewise has gone for Big Shu and Burton Port. He has already previously given Tea For Three and Shakalakaboomboom as ante post. He has been useless in the big festivals this year.
My full stakes after a fair bit of consideration are these:
Tidal Bay £5 win
Long Run £5 win
Prince de Beauchene £2.50 ew
Burton Port £2.50 ew
Quito de La Roque £2.50 ew
These are basically class horses who may have a bit to prove.
Re: Hunt Ball, he is one the handicapper has had to be careful with especially on good ground. He has run well in good graded races and was in the high 160s two years ago so its a case of him not taking chances. I backed him for the Ryan air each way and though he finished fourth he acquitted himself very well. Stamina is an issue but that the case with most entries.
Still undecided on my "other" bets but my big one is going to be Teaforthree. I just think the weights have being kind to him and, if not too tired after Cheltenham, he can jump these in his sleep.
Main thing though, let's hope all the horses and jockeys come home safe.
I have included him in my placepot, I do like him and he has a favourites chance but I think the price is too short. The weights are fine for him as Darren says but I think it is a stronger race this year with real depth in the first 10 or 12.
On his pick of Big Shu I thought the way he faded at Cheltenham was very off putting. I thought his Friday Cheltenham picks were out of complete desperation and whilst you can make a case for Burton Port his other one is a complete headscratcher for me.
I study the racing form most days and pick horses for either bets or various competitions...........so I feel a bit of a wimp for giving the National a miss !......:o
I just can't face the prospect of looking at a 40 runner race..........:o
I can't remember the last time I had a bet on the National.........probably about 20 years ago, maybe Royal Athlete ?........
After a decade on DS I can no longer be bothered with the annual 'ban the Grand National' threads...........( we did have quite a big 'ban jumps racing and horse racing' thread on GD during and after Cheltenham this year, which maybe explains why it hasn't been as prevalent this week.........it's recently been done !)
Must say also that I get slightly annoyed at the non-racing media, mainly 5live, talksport and the news channels, poking their noses into things I know something about.......the level of ignorance is pretty stark. It does make you wonder about the media coverage of things I don't know much about......
Having said all that I think Teaforthree has a chance.........but I worry slightly about how he faded in the race finish last year. He also weakened after the last fence in the Gold Cup. Being a prominent runner I think maybe he expends his energy too early in the race and could be found wanting at the end. (BTW his trainer, Rebecca Curtis, is a bit of a babe ............http://theracinghorse.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/Rebecca-Curtis.jpg..........:))
Not keen on Monbeg Dude.........he tends to get outpaced then stay on late. That's a hostage to fortune as he might have 39 horses in front of him who can bring him down or hamper him.........and not sure the nature of the track will suit him. He's particularly suited by an undulating track which breaks up the rhythm of the race and enables him to stay in touch.........also an uphill finish allows t run on through tiring horses. Maybe the extra mile here would play the same part as an uphill finish.......but on the whole I'd be against him
Obviously there are going to be doubts about every horse - this is how I usually approach a race. I start with the favourite and look for negatives. Then I move on to the second favourite and look for negatives and so on through the field..........there are always negatives. At some point there comes a balance between the odds and the negatives...........where you assess that the odds outweigh the negatives.......that's my selection .........:D
I study the racing form most days and pick horses for either bets or various competitions...........so I feel a bit of a wimp for giving the National a miss !......:o
I just can't face the prospect of looking at a 40 runner race..........:o
I can't remember the last time I had a bet on the National.........probably about 20 years ago, maybe Royal Athlete ?........
After a decade on DS I can no longer be bothered with the annual 'ban the Grand National' threads...........( we did have quite a big 'ban jumps racing and horse racing' thread on GD during and after Cheltenham this year, which maybe explains why it hasn't been as prevalent this week.........it's recently been done !)
Must say also that I get slightly annoyed at the non-racing media, mainly 5live, talksport and the news channels, poking their noses into things I know something about.......the level of ignorance is pretty stark. It does make you wonder about the media coverage of things I don't know much about......
Having said all that I think Teaforthree has a chance.........but I worry slightly about how he faded in the race finish last year. He also weakened after the last fence in the Gold Cup. Being a prominent runner I think maybe he expends his energy too early in the race and could be found wanting at the end. (BTW his trainer, Rebecca Curtis, is a bit of a babe ............http://theracinghorse.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/Rebecca-Curtis.jpg..........:))
Not keen on Monbeg Dude.........he tends to get outpaced then stay on late. That's a hostage to fortune as he might have 39 horses in front of him who can bring him down or hamper him.........and not sure the nature of the track will suit him. He's particularly suited by an undulating track which breaks up the rhythm of the race and enables him to stay in touch.........also an uphill finish allows t run on through tiring horses. Maybe the extra mile here would play the same part as an uphill finish.......but on the whole I'd be against him
Obviously there are going to be doubts about every horse - this is how I usually approach a race. I start with the favourite and look for negatives. Then I move on to the second favourite and look for negatives and so on through the field..........there are always negatives. At some point there comes a balance between the odds and the negatives...........where you assess that the odds outweigh the negatives.......that's my selection .........:D
But I'm not going through 40 runners........:o
Channel 4 was very guilty of that yesterday too. Speaking to Danielle Lloyd because she is er....from Liverpool. "What's your tip Danielle ?" askes Rishi. "Any horse in red" came back the reply from the Page 3 model. Why put her on a racing programme ? We aren't all dirty old men like Swing ( give me Abbey Clancy anyday )
To answer you directly, in the last 17 runnings there have been 141 runners aged 8 or under, and a single winner (Bindaree aged 8 in 2002). Its easy to forget Long Run has been around forever but is still only 9 and to go to part two of your question, this probably firmly became his target when he unshipped in the King George. Most of the market front runners have had this in mind for some time.
It can pay to go for horses with decent pedigree sliding down the handicap. This would make Long Run, Burton Port and notably, Quito de la Roque into contenders. There are worse each way shouts than the latter who is freely available at 50/1.
Its nearly 90 years since a 13yo winner but Tidal Bay looks better than ever. When he has run well the form has worked out great. His Hennessy and Lexus runs from 2012 should put him around 167 which is why at 161 I think he is carrying 6lb less than he should.
Thanks for your help. I've taken a look at Quito de la Roque, he looks worth a punt at the prices around. Lion Na Bernai Is another who might be worth a (small) each-way bet at the odds ?
I'm sticking with Rocky Creek for my main bet though. That's the thing with this race, the more you read, the easier it becomes to make a case for most of the field.
Yes, that's what I thought. You obviously know your stuff, do you think it might be a bit too soon for him ? He's only an 8 year old and hasn't had much experience.
Picking your brains, are there any horses this year that have been trained with this race specifically in mind ? I've always noticed in other years that they can sometimes surprise the market, maybe not winning but gaining a place at long odds.
Lots probably.
Triolo d'Alene, Tidal Bay and Long Run all seem to have been trained for the race (according to their trainers). As has Teaforthree.
I suspect Last Time D'Albain may have been too. Irish trainers often give their runners spins over hurdles and/or chases at inadequate trips in lead-up to the race. No one has mentione dhim but I think he is interesting. Got to prove he stays but was running on well in the Topham last year not beaten far at all, on good to soft. Comes from a small yard but Gordon Elliott was an unknow when he saddled the winner a few years ago.
Last Time D'Albain is a nice price but you wouldn't put much on him. No evidence of him staying a trip or being classy enough. I think this years winner really will have to tick one of those two boxes.
The others you mention have without a doubt been laid out for this race. Triolo D'alene is probably better for a Gold Cup run than if he had tried to lump top weight round in another race.
On his pick of Big Shu I thought the way he faded at Cheltenham was very off putting. I thought his Friday Cheltenham picks were out of complete desperation and whilst you can make a case for Burton Port his other one is a complete headscratcher for me.
Added to which, he has nor run on any handicap chases (except banks races and hunters). Whilst his form in these races is reasonable, banks r aces are run at a far slower pace than the Grand National is normally run at.
Derrible tip in my opinion - although Pricewise has been proven right with some way out there tips in the past!
Lots probably.
Triolo d'Alene, Tidal Bay and Long Run all seem to have been trained for the race (according to their trainers). As has Teaforthree. I suspect Last Time D'Albain may have been too. Irish trainers often give their runners spins over hurdles and/or chases at inadequate trips in lead-up to the race. No one has mentione dhim but I think he is interesting. Got to prove he stays but was running on well in the Topham last year not beaten far at all, on good to soft. Comes from a small yard but Gordon Elliott was an unknow when he saddled the winner a few years ago.
Thanks..that's more what I had in mind. Maybe something from a smaller stable who have targeted this race specifically. As you say, they often send their mount out over hurdles to keep the handicap down but maintain fitness.
Tidal Bay - class horse. Well in at weights. Targetted at race. Stays well (I can certainly see him running on at end in his usual style. I think he is a decent jumper (although he has been criticised as a bad jumper in the past, he has only ever fallen or unseated once - admittedly over these fences). Don;t think he makes many mistakes either.
Long Run - again vvery well in at weight, class horse and targeted at race. Not sure his jumping is always that good though and not convinced he will stay.
Alvorado -could be an improver. Looks a stayer but ground may well be going against him
Burton Port - badly out of form for a long while (since injured in early 2012) until last time. Undoubteably well handicapped on old form but how strong is that form last time? (which did look a better performance). Not very, I'd say. Trainer knows what he's doing though, and addition of tongue-tie is interesting.
The Package - Would have been very interested in this horse, except for the rain that's apparently falling. Tom Scudamore's choice. Stays very well, well handicapped, very good speed figure (arguable how much that matters over jumps but I think it suggests he has class), and David Pipe has added headgear. We all know the yard's record with horses wearing added headgear.
Teafothree - well handicapped compared to last year. Targetted at race. Already proven at course and distance, unlike most (but then that is the same most years). Not convinced yard are really going as well as last year though, and feel this is a better National on paper this year.
Not doing the online gambling just now as I have been naughty so it's in shop betting for me. Does anyone know if any shops are paying first 5/6 etc: or is it the bog standard first 4.
I have access to Ladbrokes, Hills and maybe Corals. I was comparing prices last night and Hills much better on 3 of my 4 horses. Didn't see anything advertising first 5 payout etc:
Not doing the online gambling just now as I have been naughty so it's in shop betting for me. Does anyone know if any shops are paying first 5/6 etc: or is it the bog standard first 4.
I have access to Ladbrokes, Hills and maybe Corals. I was comparing prices last night and Hills much better on 3 of my 4 horses. Didn't see anything advertising first 5 payout etc:
Betfair is paying 5 horses.
Edit: Oh sorry! Just read you're not doing online gambling!
Comments
To answer you directly, in the last 17 runnings there have been 141 runners aged 8 or under, and a single winner (Bindaree aged 8 in 2002). Its easy to forget Long Run has been around forever but is still only 9 and to go to part two of your question, this probably firmly became his target when he unshipped in the King George. Most of the market front runners have had this in mind for some time.
It can pay to go for horses with decent pedigree sliding down the handicap. This would make Long Run, Burton Port and notably, Quito de la Roque into contenders. There are worse each way shouts than the latter who is freely available at 50/1.
Its nearly 90 years since a 13yo winner but Tidal Bay looks better than ever. When he has run well the form has worked out great. His Hennessy and Lexus runs from 2012 should put him around 167 which is why at 161 I think he is carrying 6lb less than he should.
I think he has been absolutely thrown in with only 11st 9lb - Hunt Ball rated only 2lb behind him ... on who's planet?? This is a Gold Cup winner and has run with credit in all the top races. The handicapper has taken a massive chance ...:o
This has obviously been his leanest year but missing the Cheltenham festival should be a massive bonus and at 9 he is certainly no back number. I just hope he is ridden with a bit of restraint by Waley-Cohen as he should have the class to come through after hunting them up on the first circuit.
Thorough stayer, class in the race, jockey has a superb record over the national fences and currently, the trainer is flying.
Small savers on the likes of Tidal Bay, Shakalakaboomboom -what a name- and Battle Group, who has an outstanding Aintree record.
My full stakes after a fair bit of consideration are these:
Tidal Bay £5 win
Long Run £5 win
Prince de Beauchene £2.50 ew
Burton Port £2.50 ew
Quito de La Roque £2.50 ew
These are basically class horses who may have a bit to prove.
Re: Hunt Ball, he is one the handicapper has had to be careful with especially on good ground. He has run well in good graded races and was in the high 160s two years ago so its a case of him not taking chances. I backed him for the Ryan air each way and though he finished fourth he acquitted himself very well. Stamina is an issue but that the case with most entries.
Still undecided on my "other" bets but my big one is going to be Teaforthree. I just think the weights have being kind to him and, if not too tired after Cheltenham, he can jump these in his sleep.
Main thing though, let's hope all the horses and jockeys come home safe.
I just can't face the prospect of looking at a 40 runner race..........:o
I can't remember the last time I had a bet on the National.........probably about 20 years ago, maybe Royal Athlete ?........
After a decade on DS I can no longer be bothered with the annual 'ban the Grand National' threads...........( we did have quite a big 'ban jumps racing and horse racing' thread on GD during and after Cheltenham this year, which maybe explains why it hasn't been as prevalent this week.........it's recently been done !)
Must say also that I get slightly annoyed at the non-racing media, mainly 5live, talksport and the news channels, poking their noses into things I know something about.......the level of ignorance is pretty stark. It does make you wonder about the media coverage of things I don't know much about......
Having said all that I think Teaforthree has a chance.........but I worry slightly about how he faded in the race finish last year. He also weakened after the last fence in the Gold Cup. Being a prominent runner I think maybe he expends his energy too early in the race and could be found wanting at the end. (BTW his trainer, Rebecca Curtis, is a bit of a babe ............http://theracinghorse.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/Rebecca-Curtis.jpg..........:))
Not keen on Monbeg Dude.........he tends to get outpaced then stay on late. That's a hostage to fortune as he might have 39 horses in front of him who can bring him down or hamper him.........and not sure the nature of the track will suit him. He's particularly suited by an undulating track which breaks up the rhythm of the race and enables him to stay in touch.........also an uphill finish allows t run on through tiring horses. Maybe the extra mile here would play the same part as an uphill finish.......but on the whole I'd be against him
Obviously there are going to be doubts about every horse - this is how I usually approach a race. I start with the favourite and look for negatives. Then I move on to the second favourite and look for negatives and so on through the field..........there are always negatives. At some point there comes a balance between the odds and the negatives...........where you assess that the odds outweigh the negatives.......that's my selection .........:D
But I'm not going through 40 runners........:o
Channel 4 was very guilty of that yesterday too. Speaking to Danielle Lloyd because she is er....from Liverpool. "What's your tip Danielle ?" askes Rishi. "Any horse in red" came back the reply from the Page 3 model. Why put her on a racing programme ? We aren't all dirty old men like Swing
Ground too quick. Surely?
Not in the race.
Thanks for your help. I've taken a look at Quito de la Roque, he looks worth a punt at the prices around. Lion Na Bernai Is another who might be worth a (small) each-way bet at the odds ?
I'm sticking with Rocky Creek for my main bet though. That's the thing with this race, the more you read, the easier it becomes to make a case for most of the field.
Lots probably.
Triolo d'Alene, Tidal Bay and Long Run all seem to have been trained for the race (according to their trainers). As has Teaforthree.
I suspect Last Time D'Albain may have been too. Irish trainers often give their runners spins over hurdles and/or chases at inadequate trips in lead-up to the race. No one has mentione dhim but I think he is interesting. Got to prove he stays but was running on well in the Topham last year not beaten far at all, on good to soft. Comes from a small yard but Gordon Elliott was an unknow when he saddled the winner a few years ago.
The others you mention have without a doubt been laid out for this race. Triolo D'alene is probably better for a Gold Cup run than if he had tried to lump top weight round in another race.
Added to which, he has nor run on any handicap chases (except banks races and hunters). Whilst his form in these races is reasonable, banks r aces are run at a far slower pace than the Grand National is normally run at.
Derrible tip in my opinion - although Pricewise has been proven right with some way out there tips in the past!
Thanks..that's more what I had in mind. Maybe something from a smaller stable who have targeted this race specifically. As you say, they often send their mount out over hurdles to keep the handicap down but maintain fitness.
Tidal Bay - class horse. Well in at weights. Targetted at race. Stays well (I can certainly see him running on at end in his usual style. I think he is a decent jumper (although he has been criticised as a bad jumper in the past, he has only ever fallen or unseated once - admittedly over these fences). Don;t think he makes many mistakes either.
Long Run - again vvery well in at weight, class horse and targeted at race. Not sure his jumping is always that good though and not convinced he will stay.
Alvorado -could be an improver. Looks a stayer but ground may well be going against him
Burton Port - badly out of form for a long while (since injured in early 2012) until last time. Undoubteably well handicapped on old form but how strong is that form last time? (which did look a better performance). Not very, I'd say. Trainer knows what he's doing though, and addition of tongue-tie is interesting.
The Package - Would have been very interested in this horse, except for the rain that's apparently falling. Tom Scudamore's choice. Stays very well, well handicapped, very good speed figure (arguable how much that matters over jumps but I think it suggests he has class), and David Pipe has added headgear. We all know the yard's record with horses wearing added headgear.
Teafothree - well handicapped compared to last year. Targetted at race. Already proven at course and distance, unlike most (but then that is the same most years). Not convinced yard are really going as well as last year though, and feel this is a better National on paper this year.
Just a £15 ew on Prince De Beauchene at 22-1 (first 6 pay out)
I have access to Ladbrokes, Hills and maybe Corals. I was comparing prices last night and Hills much better on 3 of my 4 horses. Didn't see anything advertising first 5 payout etc:
Betfair is paying 5 horses.
Edit: Oh sorry! Just read you're not doing online gambling!