UK to become Europes largest economy.
BrokenArrow
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Reported in the Telegraph and several other publications.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/globalbusiness/10537274/Britain-on-course-to-become-strong-man-of-Europe.html
Apparently we are on course to overtake France within 5 years.
France is basically screwed and the Euro is the biggest single drag on the European economy.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/globalbusiness/10537274/Britain-on-course-to-become-strong-man-of-Europe.html
Apparently we are on course to overtake France within 5 years.
France is basically screwed and the Euro is the biggest single drag on the European economy.
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We rely on the banking sector, bring a net importer, massive personal debt, unsustainable population growth which means GDP per head falls and housing bubbles. That isn't very sustainable.
The economy is bound to grow by virtue of the population explosion. But is that what we really want?.
I would prefer a smaller more sustainable economy.
BTW, its unlikely Germany can sustain it current manufacturing lead as its all based upon luxury cars. They have their eggs in one basket the same as us, they are just lucky their sector is performing well ATM.
The British aerospace industry is the biggest in Europe. Aero engines don't make. themselves, do they? http://www.totalpolitics.com/print/324892/cable-on-the-largest-aerospace-industry-in-europe.thtml
I heard it mentioned on the radio this morning that Britain would overtake the German economy in 2030.
Suspect such optimism may reflect the amount of alcohol being sunk by the prophets at the moment.
Brule Britanya ...britanyaa wrools the waaaaves ... Bitin neva, neva, willl beee whatsits!
Fink Britin an vote Ukip! iz anibody aving anuver? hic!
It's the size of your economy per person that determines your true wealth. If the number of people rises faster than GDP the average person is effectively getting poorer not wealthier!
Of course we should debate the merits of GDP as a measure anyway of wealth as it doesn't consider sustainability. It includes some weird calculations like imputed rent on property which are questionable. Cos some times it's not the statistical results that matter but how you calculate them.
2) I seem to remember Germany being written off before by so-called financial experts - how did that prophecy come out?
3) How in God's name can they expect us to believe in what will happen in 2030 when in 2010 they said the recovery would happen in 2012 and they were a year out. If they cannot accurately predict what would happen in two years time why should we believe what will happen in 20 years time? Anything can happen.
All the people moaning about our over reliance on finance, should remember most economies have an over reliance on one type of industry, but we are still big players in many other industries eg Cars, Pharmaceuticals, communications, aerospace, defence etc. People also seem to forget that we actually make a trade surplice in the service industry, that offsets a lot (but not all) of our deficit on manufacturing.
People who are trying to put a downer on this have to remember a few things....
Its not about being better than Germany, but it does mean that we will have more sway in the EU decision making, the way Germany does now.
The bigger the home market, the easier it is the build up companies to take on the american internationals abroad.
But as people have previously said, its ok having the biggest economy, but we have to make sure that we dont sacrifice average living standards.
This does all beg the question, if we have such a growing population, should we be accepting the low growth figures that the government are trumpeting now, or should we be questioning whether they are just a result of population growth etc, and not due to government policy!
Exactly!! If they can't get it right in the short term how are we expected to believe they know what is going to happen in the long term?
I suspect by 2030 China will have a major foot-hold in Britain - we are after all, one of their most regular and dependent customers. It's very much in China's interests to look after their customers, and I suspect they will do a better job than the idiots we have running this country at the moment. The Tories already seem a little star-struck by the Chinese.
A good part of what is being referred to as "British industry" is owned by foreign manufacturers, Britain being a back door to the EU for many of them. Which makes the rhetoric about leaving the EU even more ridiculous.
Germany is increasingly bringing its energy industry back into public ownership, while many of our British politicians are still fumbling along based on the out-dated ideology of Thatcher.
Instead of following and promoting the lead of Germany, the British gutter press just spout propaganda and fuel the whinging about immigrants and the EU.
It's not the finger up the bum that's the problem, it's having one's head up that dark place while Britain slips further and further into the hands of foreign ownership.
Yes, it's always puzzled me that the size of a country's economy is lauded as a good thing. When measured by GDP it seems that the countries with smaller populations appear to have higher standards of living.
I see Australia, New Zealand, Canada and most of the Nordic/Scandinavian and Benelux countries have some of the highest standards of living amongst their peoples, yet they are not the largest economies.
I suppose it's what's good for the country is not necessarily good for the people.
Who'd have thought thirty years ago that the UK would be relying on a post-Communist (managed Capitalist) country to help us out of the bust period we're now in? With China experiencing the levels of growth that the West can only dream about there is a danger that we will follow their economic model: one-party state; state-controlled media and newspapers; no freedom of speech; zero tolerance of government criticism, and no You Tube !
Singapore, Malaysia and some other ASEAN (Association of South East Asian Nations) countries have a similar model and the West watches in disbelief, despair and envy.
Boom and bust is a feature of Capitalism and is built into the system, but how much do we really value our hard-won freedom of speech? With fewer people voting in elections in Western democracies I fear that we're heading towards those developing countries' economic models.
Is democracy, as we know it, in decline?
Looking at China specifically, arent they just going through a post industrialisation revolutions in the economy with high growth rates, and companies moving on to the global stage, that most western countries saw 100 years ago. Its easy to get high growth rates when your starting on a very low level on a per person basis. China will struggle to get 2 to 3% growth when they get per capita wealth anywhere near ours.
If anything its the Chinese communist government that will have the problems! 7% growth will not last forever, which they need just to maintain the current standard of living with all the rural people moving to the urban areas. When they can no longer reach this, you are going to have a growing questioning of the government, again like was seen previous in every western country,
People on here are comparing western countries today, with China today. You cant, you have to think of china today (with its growth rates and society) and compare it against the west during the industrial revolution.
How can the needs of all these economy boosting low earners be met though? The welfare state is required to top up their earnings, look after their health, educate their children and provide countless other services.
I suppose if the rich get richer due to cheap labour and the state picking up the hidden costs, they may pay enough extra tax to cover it. The trouble is, big foreign corporations and rich individuals with good accountants, are not paying all the extra tax we will need for all these extra people.
Well done on trying to be funny.
Why didn't these people see the global meltdown coming and do something about that?
Can predict the economy 20 years from now, but can't see a catastrophic global meltdown days away. Don't make me laugh.
They can stick this pile of rubbish where the sun don't shine and go and help some struggling people destitute due to poor management of the economy and diabolical prediction.
What a load of crap.
A considered and informed response. What economic forecasting model do you consider be reasonable?
Well a Crystal Ball might be useful. Will England beat Germany in the world cup before 2030
One that says things will be getting worse under a Conservative government.
Any that say things could improve are clearly not valid.
What could go wrong
As for the prediction itself - doesn't it imply that whoever is in power in the next 15 years won't make a blind bit of difference to the end result.
Deutschland comes before England.
I wasn't trying to be funny.