SPOTY 2014 Discussion Thread
Bit premature I know but seeing as Lizzy Yarnold has just become the first pretty much nailed-on nominee for SPOTY this year I thought now would be a good time to start a thread for it to keep coming back to throughout the year as things happen and our athletes taste success.
So how do we see things going this year then?
Personally, if he retains the Tour de France I fancy Chris Froome this year. If he wins Wimbledon again then Murray will have a good chance of becoming the first man ever to retain the award, but would the public vote for him again if he repeated what he did last year?
Those two aside, other possible winners could come from golf and specifically Ryder Cup. Lewis Hamilton would have a good chance if he wins the F1 title, plus if England achieve the almost-impossible and win the World Cup then you'd have to imagine one of our footballers would be a massive contender.
That aside, you have the Commonwealth Games, England's cricketers playing India in the summer, though with it not being an Olympic year and the tarnished reputation of our cricket team it's hard to imagine a winner coming from those sports.
Other potential nominees will undoubtedly come from the usual annual events, i.e. Grand National, Snooker World Championship etc, plus the likes of Froch v Groves' boxing fight, although again you'd have to think it'll take something pretty special for someone from one of these sports to win the award.
So yeah, just use this topic to discuss things as they progress through the year.
So how do we see things going this year then?
Personally, if he retains the Tour de France I fancy Chris Froome this year. If he wins Wimbledon again then Murray will have a good chance of becoming the first man ever to retain the award, but would the public vote for him again if he repeated what he did last year?
Those two aside, other possible winners could come from golf and specifically Ryder Cup. Lewis Hamilton would have a good chance if he wins the F1 title, plus if England achieve the almost-impossible and win the World Cup then you'd have to imagine one of our footballers would be a massive contender.
That aside, you have the Commonwealth Games, England's cricketers playing India in the summer, though with it not being an Olympic year and the tarnished reputation of our cricket team it's hard to imagine a winner coming from those sports.
Other potential nominees will undoubtedly come from the usual annual events, i.e. Grand National, Snooker World Championship etc, plus the likes of Froch v Groves' boxing fight, although again you'd have to think it'll take something pretty special for someone from one of these sports to win the award.
So yeah, just use this topic to discuss things as they progress through the year.
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Comments
Unless England do something in Brazil, it won't be a footballer, Murray winning a Grand Slam isn't exceptional any more, so that gives Yarnold a great chance. Of course, it's February and not November - but winter gold-medal winners have won it before.
So, Ryan Giggs then.
At least she won today.
I don't see why Andy Murray is the favourite, he hasn't done anything so far this year to warrant getting SPOTY.
You have never ever been into a bookies I take it ? or placed a bet ? If he wins Wimbledon again he will probably win SPOTY again so why have him at 20/1 now ??
It's not about what has happened so far, it's bettors speculating on what could happen in the rest of the year. There aren't that many big events this year that could lead to SPOTY winners. No Ashes series, No Olympics or World Championships Athletics, England aren't going to do anything at the World Cup. So it's about bettors trying to look at who has the opportunity to do something which would put themselves in the frame for SPOTY. Andy has Wimbledon which, if he were to defend his title, would make him a strong favourite to win again.
I'd go for Murray if he wins another Grand Slam.
Where did Amy Williams come in 2010 - presume she was nominated for SPOTY?
2010 SPOTY CONTENDERS
Mark Cavendish
Tom Daley
Jessica Ennis
David Haye
AP McCoy
Graeme McDowell
Graeme Swann
Phil Taylor
Lee Westwood
Amy Williams
Amy came 8th, AP McCoy won it after finally winning the Grand National.
I suspect Lizzle Yarnold's success will get more attention though.
Good point from Darren about Mo Farah.
Exactly. Exhibit A, AP McCoy in 2010. All because he won one particular race in that year on top of all his achievements in previous years.
Looking at the voting there wasn't all that much between 2nd and 8th. McCoy was a runaway winner.
I don't know what the stats are but anecdotally it seems that the Winter Olympics are a bigger deal this time than 2010. People seem more engaged with it perhaps because of the 2012 effect.
Also it was on BBC 1 at 540 on a Friday night. I don't know exactly what time Amy's win was but I don't think it would have been seen by as many. Plus as you say, the 2012 effect
No not a gambling person myself, I guess if he won a Wimbledon he might take it again, but as things stand at the moment I think Lizzy deserves it the most, it's still early in the year though. I don't see any of our football getting it unless we do surprisingly well in the world cup which I doubt. to be honest it's far too early to be calling this, it's still very early in the year and who knows what's going to happen?
Helped by an aggressive promotional campaign within the horse racing fraternity.
If the winter sports fraternity did the same then Lizzy Yarnold would definitely be in the mix (as regards winning SPOTY).
I also think Amy's success and presence on the BBC team has raised the profile of the event, which has made Lizzy's success more high profile. She'll definitely be on the short-list, but how she places will depend on what else happens this year, including if she can maintain her own profile.
If Mo wins the marathon, he'd be a worthy favourite. I think it's OK to account for past experiences and triumphs if it's relevant to their story during the current year. If they've won before, and they've had a good, but not great, year, then it shouldn't count. If, like Mo might, you've added a high profile marathon win to wins at other distances, then it's a huge factor in his status.
It may be influenced by his decision on whether or not he takes part in the Commonwealth Games. English people might treat it as a snub to an opportunity to bring the nation two golds, while Scots might feel it's a snub to their home games.
I'm hoping there will be some strong home nation wins at the Commonwealth Games, but I admit I'm not sure where they'll come from.
Is squash in the Commonwealth Games? We've got some good squash players. Isn't Nick Matthew current world champion? He could easily have made the short-list last year.
Murray has short odds, not because he's done anything spectacular so far, but because it's predicted that once he's recovered from surgery, he has a very good chance of winning something high profile. He's high profile, so a lot of people would take a punt on long odds offered at the beginning of the year. The bookies don't want to risk it.
I will offer you 3 million to 1
Not a chance !!! ( she and her team had a great unbeaten games, but she will hardly register compared to some higher profile names come year end ).
Re Andy Murray, as folk have suggested not at all difficult to see why he is the bookies' favourite at this early stage based on what he might do.
I agree Mo Farah would be a contendor if he won the London Marathon, more particularly if in real style and maybe with some other notable triumph. Turning up might help a little too - Murray was always going to win last year so it was never a real issue, and some folk anyway considered he had very good reason not to be there.
Chris Froome would only be in contention in a very poor year even if he wins the Tour de France again. I agree that he just in general doesn't connect with the British public.
Lizzy Yarnold too, while big news just now, is ultimately a very unlikely winner, and as above Amy Williams didn't get close in a far from vintage 2010. Lizzy wouldn't be close to beating Andy if he won another Slam, let alone Wimbledon again ( in which case she could totally forget it ! )
I would suggest as of now that it will be Andy, Mo or quite likely someone not yet mentioned whose great triumph(s) are still to come.
Spot on. It'll be a name from a higher-profile sport. It always is. Golf, Tennis, Football or even F1.
Given that the only major global competition this year is the World Cup in Rio, if anyone produces a Maradona-esque performance throughout, then they'll most likely be nailed on.
Yarnold will most likely be on the final list of nominee's but I don't suspect she'll win as the competition itself takes place far too early in the year. By the time the awards ceremony rolls around, other athletes tend to have taken most of the coverage a la Amy Williams in 2010.
Rory does, and if he has a decent Ryder Cup then I can see him coming through in a relatively weak year.
Wouldn't rule out a young footballer though having a break-though in Brazil, worked for Gazza and Owen. We don't have to do that well. The Ox perhaps? Wilshere, Sturridge, Sterling, Barclay or Lalanna could also make themselves superstars overnight in front of huge audiences.
I'm sorry I don't see Yarnold at all, maybe proved wrong, but I just think it'll be forgotten by the time of the voting, like Williams was. The ratings have been okay but nothing more.