Predicted total decimation of Labour at the next election
Labours polling in Scotland is now low, it's looking that they will scrape in 5 MPs only, with the SNP riding high with 52!
Are Labour now effectively a spent force in Scotland? Is this because of the referendum or Ed Miliband?
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9069
Are Labour now effectively a spent force in Scotland? Is this because of the referendum or Ed Miliband?
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9069
Survation had a new Scottish poll out for the Daily Record this morning. It showed the same sort of surge in SNP support that we’ve seen in other recent Scottish polls from Ipsos MORI, YouGov and Panelbase – in this case Westminster voting intentions are CON 17%, LAB 24%, LDEM 6%, SNP 46%, UKIP 5% (tabs are here.) I don’t imagine uniform swing calculators are really any sort of guide to how things would work out in a re-alignment of this sort of huge scale, but on paper these figures would give the SNP 52 seats in Scotland and Labour just five, and in practice it would surely produce a huge number of SNP gains. The question remains whether Labour can mount a recovery in Scotland prior to the election once they have elected a new leader, or whether this SNP surge will be maintained.
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I think Labour can recover in Scotland; incumbents always carry some momentum with them going into elections. The question is whether they can recover in time.
I would think that the reason for the collapse in the Labour vote is because voters don't believe that Labour will look after their interests. The internal squabbling won't have helped, Ed is increasingly appearing like he's not up to the job, what Labour appear to be offering seems very lacklustre but above all, they don't appear like they want to fight on behalf of the Scots. Certainly not compared to the SNP.
In Scotland it could be argued that the SNP are the incumbent party, due to Holyrood, where Labour are in opposition. In the UK it could be argued the Tories are the incumbent party, due to Westminster, where Labour are in opposition.
Pretty much this. Whether people believe in actual independence or not, the tendency is to have the view that the SNP will be the party to look after Scotland's interests, especially with Labour's policies since the referendum vote.
No way will Labour recover sufficiently, if at all. Ever.
It is going to be possible for Labour to ever come back to its former strength in Scotland? Well it will take a long time for if the huge number of SNP MPs can ensure that there is no cut to the money that Scotland receives then they can rightly claim that voting SNP for Westminster is not wasted and that voting SNP for Holyrood gives them a government that does what they want.
However, politics is a funny old game and some unforeseen circumstances could arise which would benefit the Labour party in Scotland but as it stands their future looks bleak.
Although the referendum was lost, I am more confident now that in ten years time Scotland will be an independent country than I was ten years ago.
Yes, how dare unionist parties temporarily put aside their differences to work together to preserve the union! Thank goodness the SNP and greens would never think of doing something similar, oh wait...
The damage was mainly done by Blair and his Blairite cronies and their cheerleading Blairite MP's, many of whom have since lost their seats.
The bad news for the Tories though is that even if the SNP were to take most of Labour's seats, the SNP won't sell out like the Lib Dems did and prop up a minority Tory Government. They will with Labour unless Labour are too arogant and rebuff them but having said that, I sense the SNP might deliberatly over play their hand too.
That's because people voted with their heads and not their hearts on the independence referendum. They voted No because they didn't want to go through the transitional phase to independence with the "uncertainty" it would have bought.
I think they feel kind of guilty for voting no so the way they are making up for it like is to declare support for the SNP in all other elections but will the support hold in a General Election? I wouldn't be surprised if the Scottish people vote smartly and tactically and vote Labour to try and get Labour into power rather than make it easier for the Tories to get back in.
The SNP is riding high but the parties popularity is more down to people liking Big Eck whilst the other Scottish leaders are/were terrible. I don't get a sense that people like Nicola as much as she thinks they do, there is a smugness to her that will not go down well. There are also a few problems for the SNP on the horizon, the massive NHS overspend will mean cuts and class sizes are rising, there is also a short fall in teachers. All is not coming up roses.
The SNP will make gains probably more at the expense of the Lib Dems rather than Labour. Surprisingly the Tories might gain a 2-3 extra seats next May.
Like it or not Labour are now reaping what they sowed by their stance in the referendum. They would have been much better advised to keep a very low profile but they chose the collaboration route and the Red Nats who used to vote Labour for Westminster and SNP for Holyrood are now voting SNP for both. Labour were warned repeatedly that the course they took would do no them no favours whatever the result but they chose to ignore the sound advice.
Labour increased their seats in Scotland at the last election didn't they? I can't remember how many seats they gained but I think it was because the Scottish people saw Gordon Brown being given a rough ride by England in general but especially by the Tory supporting media/press and they reacted by voting for Labour more so if Labour do lose some seats, it might be the ones they gained in 2010.
They didn't gain any seats but did increase the share of vote by 2.5% to a total of 42%. You are right about the Gordon Brown effect last time which will be missing this time which is why I think a few seats could fall, I just can't see the collapse that the polls suggest.
Having said that I do wonder why Darling is stepping down, has he seen constituency polls that are suggesting he will lose? If Edinburgh South West falls a near wipe out is on the cards.
You think their fortunes will improve in England?
I honestly in my heart believe Labour will lose at least 20 seats , thats based on polls of current support in scotland also factoring in what I anticipate to happen leading into the election (I expect a swing from SNP to Labour leading into the election) , so I think Labour will probably recover a bit but still get hammered up there. If this collapse hadn't of happened I would be for sure of predicted Labour to be the largest party and possibly even a Labour majority (a very small one) , but with this collapse I think it has truly made this election too close to call, nobody knows who will be in government next year even very highly rated pollsters like Peter Kellner aren't sure on whose going to have the most seats let alone who will be in power, fascinating times.
As someone that will vote tory though I do acknowledge that Labour probably have more what I'd call "routes to power" than the Tory's , in that many parties will refuse to do a deal with the Conservatives but may be persuaded to help Labour keep the tories out of power.
I thought Labour had 39 or 40 seats before and gained another 1 or 2 in 2010?
On Alistair Darling stepping down as an MP, I think Darling has completely switched from a Brownite to a Blairite. I think Gordon Brown "turning" on Darling after becoming PM and favouring Ed Balls more for advice and stratergy had a lot to do with it, even though he gave Darling the chancellorship.
I think all that ended the friendship between Darling and Brown and they seemed very close allies before that but also Darling as been in politics for around 40 years, maybe he just wants to retire in general?
A lot of the people that were in Labour's front bench throughout the 90's and their time in Government have retired as MP's now or will be. John Prescott, and Jack Staw will be stepping down as well as are others. Blunkett, Bob Ainsworth etc etc.
There is supposed to be a bill by January isn't there?
No wonder the Scots are unhappy, its all gone quiet on the devo max front now they have voted no.
The so called powers will come but these will be powers that strengthen Scotlands place in the union, not the powers needed to build the best society possible here in Scotland.
William Hague has been put in charge of drawing up the plans for the new powers and he has indicated he will work with other parties while working on these new powers.
Can't wait to see the outcome. I wonder if it will be before or after the next GE we see them?
I don't expect them to do too badly. Maybe not a majority, but more seats than the Conservatives.