We were talking about this at university the other day and our friend who works at tesco explained that Lucky Dips are not 100% random.
Every lucky dip partly bases itself on the numbers that have been chosen through the lottery machine before.
NO IT DOESN'T!
The watchdog for the lottery - The National Lottery Commission - asked a group of academics to analyse the randomness of the Lucky Dips - I believe they received a few complaints from the sorts of people who've contributed to this thread, who believe that if something appears to contain any discernible pattern then it can't be random.
The academics (University of Salford) sampled a selection of Lucky Dip selections and tested them for:
- the frequency for each number 1-49;
- independence with respect to previous selections;
- patterns, clusters and sequential trends in the selections.
They found no evidence of any bias ie it really is random. The human brain loves to find patterns even where none exist.
As someone else on this thread has pointed out the best way to maximise your return (other than avoiding lotteries!) is to choose less popular numbers (generally higher numbers) to avoid sharing the prizes. Camelot don't publish this information, but you can get at it by analysing each week's winning numbers and looking at the number of people who shared the prize.
An academic at Southampton has done this - result:
- Numbers up to 31 are favoured (birthdays)
- 7 is the most favoured number
- 46 was least popular. 44 and 45 were also unpopular.
See the recent New Scientist article for fuller details - his paper is also probably online somewhere.
I have noticed that if I buy a ticket with my usual numbers and also a lucky dip at the same time, the lucky dip numbers are very close to my own numbers.
I noticed that a while ago too, so if I'm going to buy a lucky dip ticket, I don't do it at the same time as I get my regular numbers. If I want a machine-generated lucky dip ticket, I try to get it the morning after a draw has taken place rather than say only a couple of hours before the next draw. I doubt any of that makes any difference in the end except psychologically.
It's irrelevant anyway, surely? Your chances of winning with any set of numbers, however similar, are exactly the same.
They are indeed exactly the same. Some don't seem to be able to comprehend this.
The only thing you can do to make any difference is to pick numbers that you imagine aren't picked as often and hope to avoid sharing a jackpot.
The premise is that any six numbers are just as likely to be drawn as any other six numbers, therefore what you should concentrate on is thinking about which numbers other people are less likely to pick, to give yourself the chance of being a 'sole winner' if your numbers come up.
Firstly...........only pick numbers over 31 as other people use birthdays
Second........high numbers are best as people use house numbers..........every street pretty much has a number 1, 2, 3.............but not every street has a 40, 41 etc because some streets are short...
Thirdly........pick consecutive numbers because some people think wrongly that there is less chance of six consecutive numbers coming out than six non-consecutive numbers
With all the above, the best numbers to pick are 44, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49
But a few people might have the same theory as you and pick those numbers.........so go for 43, 44, 45, 46, 47, 48.
In practise I can't be bothered writing out a ticket, so I get a lucky dip...............
We're not doing it at work from October, when they increase the number from 49 to 59. The rise from £1.00 to £2.00 was bad enough, but to decrease the chances of winning even £25.00 from 1 in 57 to 1 in 97, is a killer.
I wonder what the stats are regarding people who won via Lucky Dip (and then those who won with a Lucky Dip online) versus those who picked their numbers.
I wonder what the stats are regarding people who won via Lucky Dip (and then those who won with a Lucky Dip online) versus those who picked their numbers.
id like to know as well.
I recently won£450pounds on hot picks 3 lucky dip:)
But any time i play the main draw i have wondered if a lucky dip ticket is generated from the least likely numbers to come out
id like to know as well.
I recently won£450pounds on hot picks 3 lucky dip:)
But any time i play the main draw i have wondered if a lucky dip ticket is generated from the least likely numbers to come out
They're all equally likely to come out.
I assume you mean generating a lucky dip from the numbers drawn least frequently. But just because it's been drawn the least number of times doesn't mean it's less likely to be drawn any more than flipping a coin 100 times and getting 53 heads and 47 tails means that tails are less likely next time you flip it.
Comments
3,9,23,34,36,41
16,28,33,34,44,47
21,25,36,41,44,49
hmm
NO IT DOESN'T!
The watchdog for the lottery - The National Lottery Commission - asked a group of academics to analyse the randomness of the Lucky Dips - I believe they received a few complaints from the sorts of people who've contributed to this thread, who believe that if something appears to contain any discernible pattern then it can't be random.
The academics (University of Salford) sampled a selection of Lucky Dip selections and tested them for:
- the frequency for each number 1-49;
- independence with respect to previous selections;
- patterns, clusters and sequential trends in the selections.
They found no evidence of any bias ie it really is random. The human brain loves to find patterns even where none exist.
As someone else on this thread has pointed out the best way to maximise your return (other than avoiding lotteries!) is to choose less popular numbers (generally higher numbers) to avoid sharing the prizes. Camelot don't publish this information, but you can get at it by analysing each week's winning numbers and looking at the number of people who shared the prize.
An academic at Southampton has done this - result:
- Numbers up to 31 are favoured (birthdays)
- 7 is the most favoured number
- 46 was least popular. 44 and 45 were also unpopular.
See the recent New Scientist article for fuller details - his paper is also probably online somewhere.
Hope that clears up the myths.
They are indeed exactly the same. Some don't seem to be able to comprehend this.
The only thing you can do to make any difference is to pick numbers that you imagine aren't picked as often and hope to avoid sharing a jackpot.
9 year update........
I've given up doing it now
Posted from your yacht in the Bahamas perchance
there are no numbers , so there are no number solutions / theories / systems etc
We're not doing it at work from October, when they increase the number from 49 to 59. The rise from £1.00 to £2.00 was bad enough, but to decrease the chances of winning even £25.00 from 1 in 57 to 1 in 97, is a killer.
The Advertising Standards Authority should take them to task and force a name change to: ‘National Lottery Un-Lucky Dips’
P.S. I don’t like the foreign owned company Camelot (aka The Ontario Canada Teachers Pension Plan) very much.
Nor me - it's a pity Richard Branson didn't win his bid to takeover lotto a few years back.
I bought a Lucky Dip a few years ago - there are five of us in my family and all our birthday numbers were on it!
9 - 14 - 19 - 29- 31
Obviously it didn't win anything - now that would have been a MEGA coincidence.
id like to know as well.
I recently won£450pounds on hot picks 3 lucky dip:)
But any time i play the main draw i have wondered if a lucky dip ticket is generated from the least likely numbers to come out
They're all equally likely to come out.
I assume you mean generating a lucky dip from the numbers drawn least frequently. But just because it's been drawn the least number of times doesn't mean it's less likely to be drawn any more than flipping a coin 100 times and getting 53 heads and 47 tails means that tails are less likely next time you flip it.