Brexit moving towards WTO option

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Comments

  • ReaGalanReaGalan Posts: 69
    Forum Member
    trevgo wrote: »
    Based on what? We haven't negotiated a solitary trade deal for decades. The DTI has already said we have nobody with a clue how to even start.

    Brexit are making this up as they go along, which isn't lethal this side of the vote. After the 24th, it will most certainly be. Markets and companies aren't going to wait around to see what they can cobble together - they will vote with their feet and their assets.

    It is simply staggering. If any political party ran for election with no economic plan whatsoever, they would be laughed off the stage. People are so drunk on immigration, they are blind to the economic catastrophe that is hiding behind the crass nonsense peddled by Brexit.

    Based on I have confidence in the people who will be involved. It seems that people who are afraid of leaving the EU have some sort of wanting to talk down the UK. It's almost like we're incapable of surviving on our own.

    If it's not beating on the British that the Bremainers are doing, it's acting all Izzard like when talking about what will or wont happen.

    Truly bizarre that people are so against the UK taking back control.
  • Ethel_FredEthel_Fred Posts: 34,127
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    Brexit is about leaving the EU, not the consequences of leaving the EU.

    The Brexit campaign is encouraging people to vote Brexit on the basis of promises they cannot possibly keep.
  • Ethel_FredEthel_Fred Posts: 34,127
    Forum Member
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    ReaGalan wrote: »
    Based on I have confidence in the people who will be involved. It seems that people who are afraid of leaving the EU have some sort of wanting to talk down the UK. It's almost like we're incapable of surviving on our own.

    If it's not beating on the British that the Bremainers are doing, it's acting all Izzard like when talking about what will or wont happen.

    Truly bizarre that people are so against the UK taking back control.
    Nobody can say what taking back control means. It's subject to whatever deals are negotiated.
  • ReaGalanReaGalan Posts: 69
    Forum Member
    Ethel_Fred wrote: »
    Nobody can say what taking back control means. It's subject to whatever deals are negotiated.

    I suppose it comes down to having faith in ones coutrymen. I have that, those wanting to leave have not.

    Too many people on the stay side are those who just fear change or the unknown. Being overly cautious when the EU is dragging down one coutry after another is not good.

    I'm proud to be British, I love my country and want to think we'll still be a country when I die, not just a largish state in the United States of Europe. That's where the EU is heading and God help those who don't want that. You're classed as a thicko, racist or thug by those in the Bremain camp.
  • normalmishanormalmisha Posts: 1,297
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    munta wrote: »
    It seems that after a number of debates and being pushed on the issue, the leave campaign appear to be suggesting the Norway/Swiss models are not suitable as they include

    - payment to the EU
    - free movement
    - some EU laws

    So the only option left is the WTO model. Farage has certainly said that this is his favoured option.

    The WTO option does have some positives but I think there is a huge negative that is still being glossed over.

    The WTO model sets down tariffs for goods. Effectively if we used the WTO model, we would have to allow trade of goods at the prescribed tariffs. We couldn't not block import or export of those goods. That trade model is a good thing although the tariffs obviously less so. The problem is though that the WTO model does not include services. Countries around the world would be free to either impose high tariffs or to block entirely the trade in services.

    So the problem is that the UK trade is composed of 80% export of services. If any country wished to block our trade of services, we could not retaliate by imposing tariffs or blocking trade on goods. The WTO would not allow it. We could impose tariffs or block trade in services but thats not really going to help us when we are a net exporter.

    Can anyone from the Brexit camp suggest how this could be good for our economy.

    Why do you assume that it needs to be? WTO trade could be worse for the economy, but it doesn't mean that it's a bad choice all told. You never get something for nothing.
  • alanwarwicalanwarwic Posts: 28,396
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    Ethel_Fred wrote: »
    Nobody can say what taking back control means. It's subject to whatever deals are negotiated.

    It might mean England gets a 2nd name.

    Boris Island?
  • KiteviewKiteview Posts: 9,246
    Forum Member
    ReaGalan wrote: »
    I suppose it comes down to having faith in ones coutrymen. I have that, those wanting to leave have not.

    Too many people on the stay side are those who just fear change or the unknown. Being overly cautious when the EU is dragging down one coutry after another is not good.

    I'm proud to be British, I love my country and want to think we'll still be a country when I die, not just a largish state in the United States of Europe. That's where the EU is heading and God help those who don't want that. You're classed as a thicko, racist or thug by those in the Bremain camp.

    Where the EU is heading is up to the member states and none of them are putting any formal proposals forward to create a United States of Europe.
  • BrokenArrowBrokenArrow Posts: 21,665
    Forum Member
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    munta wrote: »
    It seems that after a number of debates and being pushed on the issue, the leave campaign appear to be suggesting the Norway/Swiss models are not suitable as they include

    - payment to the EU
    - free movement
    - some EU laws

    So the only option left is the WTO model. Farage has certainly said that this is his favoured option.

    The WTO option does have some positives but I think there is a huge negative that is still being glossed over.

    The WTO model sets down tariffs for goods. Effectively if we used the WTO model, we would have to allow trade of goods at the prescribed tariffs. We couldn't not block import or export of those goods. That trade model is a good thing although the tariffs obviously less so. The problem is though that the WTO model does not include services. Countries around the world would be free to either impose high tariffs or to block entirely the trade in services.

    So the problem is that the UK trade is composed of 80% export of services. If any country wished to block our trade of services, we could not retaliate by imposing tariffs or blocking trade on goods. The WTO would not allow it. We could impose tariffs or block trade in services but thats not really going to help us when we are a net exporter.

    Can anyone from the Brexit camp suggest how this could be good for our economy.

    This not true, the WTO does not set Tariff rates, these are set by the individual countries. The main WTO rule is that whatever tariff you set on particular items, you can not discriminate where that item comes from.

    So if you set a 30% import duty on cars, you have to apply it to every country that imports cars into the UK.

    By these same rules, the EU cannot set any special barriers to goods entering the EU from the UK.
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