Yes, I read the article, it's just someone's opinion.
If you read the comments section, you'll see folks views on it. It's broadly viewed as nothing more than journalistic trolling.
The line this guy is pushing is one that's been pushed for the last few years now. The only thing that's changed is that it's no longer 'just mid term polls'...
As to you comment abut betting odds, I think you'll find them a little more accurate of an outcome than some opinion piece designed to attract attention and appease.
Kellner wrote a bizarre piece a year or two ago on the YouGov site wherein he dredged up a wide array of far-fetched scenarios and put them all together to imagine a Tory majority on just a 4% lead in the vote.
Kellner obviously knows a thing or two about polling, but it doesn't make him any good at political forecasting, because polls are not predictions. It's also interesting to note that he's a long-standing Labour supporter, and there is a section of Labour's support that is forever spooked by 1992 and now exists in a perpetual state of Chicken Little-style pessimism.
Erm, the next election will be held on May 7th next year, barely over 12 months away,
and it's getting closer by the day, and trying to add 2 or 3 months is just wishful thinking I'm afraid,
If you were planning to vote in July or August next year you would be too late, give it a few weeks and it will be LESS than a year away, this much hoped for Tory surge had better happen very soon indeed.
Whoops! Got my maths wrong. I meant 13 months (honest!).
Your other point - this is the second post I've read saying much the same thing. Wishful thinking, though - any movement up or down now for the Tories will soon evaporate, as we've just seen with the Budget. The Autumn conference season will be the first indication of genuine movement that could be retained through to the election, but even then it would depend on policies. Things won't really get deadly serious until the GE campaign gets into action (i.e. February 2015). A long way to go yet....
Whatever giveaways and sweeteners were in the budget have all been forgotten by the antics of Maria Miller and the lack of judgement shown by Dave 'Let's leave it at that' Cameron.
If he had sacked her straightaway it would have shown strong leadership and not had a week of toxic headlines.
Whatever giveaways and sweeteners were in the budget have all been forgotten by the antics of Maria Miller and the lack of judgement shown by Dave 'Let's leave it at that' Cameron.
If he had sacked her straightaway it would have shown strong leadership and not had a week of toxic headlines.
It's been shown that the lead Labour had is now the smallest it's ever been. How do you come about your prognosis on it being bad for Cameron and the tories?
Look at the ICM poll, 2 points between them (Although I suspect it will go back to 4).
It's been shown that the lead Labour had is now the smallest it's ever been. How do you come about your prognosis on it being bad for Cameron and the tories?
Look at the ICM poll, 2 points between them (Although I suspect it will go back to 4).
Today's ICM poll has a 5 point lead, all the other polls over the weekend show similar scores.
Comres
f CON 29%(-3), LAB 35%(nc), LDEM 7%(-2), UKIP 20%(+4
It's been shown that the lead Labour had is now the smallest it's ever been. How do you come about your prognosis on it being bad for Cameron and the tories?
Look at the ICM poll, 2 points between them (Although I suspect it will go back to 4).
5% isn't quite the smallest it's ever been, is it?
The monthly average it has dropped from 5% in Jan, to 4.7% in Frb, to 4.45% in March. I'm sure someone can do a brief snap poll for April to see if it has come down anymore.
Of course, if you trend from last year, it's shows a steady decline in lead for Labour.
So as I say, Labours lead is the smallest it has ever been (that's just based on Yougov).
The monthly average it has dropped from 5% in Jan, to 4.7% in Frb, to 4.45% in March. I'm sure someone can do a brief snap poll for April to see if it has come down anymore.
Of course, if you trend from last year, it's shows a steady decline in lead for Labour.
So as I say, Labours lead is the smallest it has ever been (that's just based on Yougov).
Why are you talking about post budget boost figures?
We're in mid April now and what is being discussed is an evaporation of the Tory budget boost over the last few weeks. You're figures appear to conveniently excluded all the polls that show this, whilst including ones with the boost.
Labours lead is small, the Tories have yet to or don't seem capable to overtake Labour, thats where my concern would be if you are a blue voter. The Tories have taken a hit in the polls during the Miller scandal, so Labours lead has grown again.
The monthly average it has dropped from 5% in Jan, to 4.7% in Frb, to 4.45% in March. I'm sure someone can do a brief snap poll for April to see if it has come down anymore.
Of course, if you trend from last year, it's shows a steady decline in lead for Labour.
So as I say, Labours lead is the smallest it has ever been (that's just based on Yougov).
A quick look at www.ukpollingreport.co.uk shows the average in April so far is 4.47%, but 5out of the past 10 polls have been 6%. They have some good analysis as well.
The two main factors are whether the UKIP vote holds up for a year and whether the LD stays low.
A quick look at www.ukpollingreport.co.uk shows the average in April so far is 4.47%, but 5out of the past 10 polls have been 6%. They have some good analysis as well.
The two main factors are whether the UKIP vote holds up for a year and whether the LD stays low.
Yes, that site is one I discuss stuff on. It's very good. I try to stay balanced on the polling as I like stats.
Comments
Kellner wrote a bizarre piece a year or two ago on the YouGov site wherein he dredged up a wide array of far-fetched scenarios and put them all together to imagine a Tory majority on just a 4% lead in the vote.
Kellner obviously knows a thing or two about polling, but it doesn't make him any good at political forecasting, because polls are not predictions. It's also interesting to note that he's a long-standing Labour supporter, and there is a section of Labour's support that is forever spooked by 1992 and now exists in a perpetual state of Chicken Little-style pessimism.
Whoops! Got my maths wrong. I meant 13 months (honest!).
Your other point - this is the second post I've read saying much the same thing. Wishful thinking, though - any movement up or down now for the Tories will soon evaporate, as we've just seen with the Budget. The Autumn conference season will be the first indication of genuine movement that could be retained through to the election, but even then it would depend on policies. Things won't really get deadly serious until the GE campaign gets into action (i.e. February 2015). A long way to go yet....
32%, with Labour on 37%, Lib Dems on 12% and UKip on 11%
Get in. Tories down 3.:D
"Support for Tories falls as post-budget boost is deflated after Maria Miller row"
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/apr/14/support-tories-falls-budget-boost-deflated-maria-miller-row
How's that prediction looking?
If he had sacked her straightaway it would have shown strong leadership and not had a week of toxic headlines.
It's been shown that the lead Labour had is now the smallest it's ever been. How do you come about your prognosis on it being bad for Cameron and the tories?
Look at the ICM poll, 2 points between them (Although I suspect it will go back to 4).
Today's ICM poll has a 5 point lead, all the other polls over the weekend show similar scores.
Comres
f CON 29%(-3), LAB 35%(nc), LDEM 7%(-2), UKIP 20%(+4
You don't use single polls, you need to go by how they are trending. All pollsters are showing the Labour lead declining.
You're the only one using a single poll harping on about one poll, whilst ignoring the others.
Like it or not, the Tory boost of recent weeks is gone.
Comres
CON 29%(-3), LAB 35%(nc), LDEM 7%(-2), UKIP 20%(+4)
Opinium
CON 30%(-2), LAB 36%(+3), LDEM 7%(-3), UKIP 18%(+3).
ICM
Con 32% (-3), with Labour on 37% (-1), Lib Dems on 12% and UKip on 11%
I see you're trolling again, so I will leave the discussion with you.
You are absolutely right about trending - and the trend over the past couple of weeks is for the Labour lead to rise again.
5% isn't quite the smallest it's ever been, is it?
No need, the polls speak for themselves:
YouGov
CON 33%, LAB 38%, LD 9%, UKIP 12%
Comres
CON 29%(-3), LAB 35%(nc), LDEM 7%(-2), UKIP 20%(+4)
Opinium
CON 30%(-2), LAB 36%(+3), LDEM 7%(-3), UKIP 18%(+3).
ICM
Con 32% (-3), Labour on 37% (-1), Lib Dems on 12% and UKip on 11%
Populus
CON 33%, LAB 35%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 13%
The monthly average it has dropped from 5% in Jan, to 4.7% in Frb, to 4.45% in March. I'm sure someone can do a brief snap poll for April to see if it has come down anymore.
Of course, if you trend from last year, it's shows a steady decline in lead for Labour.
So as I say, Labours lead is the smallest it has ever been (that's just based on Yougov).
Why are you talking about post budget boost figures?
We're in mid April now and what is being discussed is an evaporation of the Tory budget boost over the last few weeks. You're figures appear to conveniently excluded all the polls that show this, whilst including ones with the boost.
A quick look at www.ukpollingreport.co.uk shows the average in April so far is 4.47%, but 5out of the past 10 polls have been 6%. They have some good analysis as well.
The two main factors are whether the UKIP vote holds up for a year and whether the LD stays low.
Yes, that site is one I discuss stuff on. It's very good. I try to stay balanced on the polling as I like stats.
Lab 36% (+1)
Conservative 25% (n/c)
UKIP 20 % (n/c)
Lib Dems 6% (-3)
Greens 6% (-1)