How can you say the Offer Button is transforming games when it is NEAR IMPOSSIBLE to get with the joke offers the Banker makes at the start?! *roll eyes*
The average of the two remaining boxes is £6,000. (remember the blue is worth £2,000 at Box23.)
£3,000 at Box23 is worth only £4,700. That is quite a significant difference.
I would be looking for at least £4,000 to deal at the last two boxes and go to Box23.. £4,000 at Box23 is worth £5,600,not much less than your equity.
Anything less than that,I'd take my chance and tell Noel to open my box.
I think you have forgotten the "real world" though.
Assumption: If the £10,000 is in the box you won't go to box 23, if the £1 is you will, and if you take the offer of £3,023 you also will.
If the deal of £3,023 isn't taken, either £10,000 or £1 is in the box.
Possible winnings are:
£10,001 (£1 in box, +£10,000 in box 23) 10%
£10,000 (£10,000 in box, box 23 not opened) 50%
£2 (£1 in box, double in box 23) 10%
£1 (£1 in box, money back in box 23) 10%
50p (£1 in box, half in box 23) 10%
£0 (£1 in box, nothing in box 23) 10%
Overall summary:
£10,000 or £10,001 = 60%
£2 or less = 40%
As you can see it is pretty much an all or nothing game.
The average might be in theory £6,000 but you are only playing the game once.
Assuming you take the deal of £3,023 and you also then deal box 23.
The top prize is worth more. But there is a better chance of winning something more middle of the road.
However the chance of winning peanuts is greatly reduced, as it is only the nothing option in box 23 that means you win nothing. If you only win £1, double, money back, half or nothing, means you win nothing!
The overall decision I have made is that you are more likely to win more money by no dealing £3,023 but you are also more likely to win £2 or less. If you deal £3,023 you are more likely to win a more middle of the road amount, with the outside chance you can win £13,023.
Based on the real world I think GCT might be right. That doesn't mean your theory is wrong, but players need to think about more than just the theory whilst playing the game.
I think you have forgotten the "real world" though.
Assumption: If the £10,000 is in the box you won't go to box 23, if the £1 is you will, and if you take the offer of £3,023 you also will.
If the deal of £3,023 isn't taken, either £10,000 or £1 is in the box.
Possible winnings are:
£10,001 (£1 in box, +£10,000 in box 23) 10%
£10,000 (£10,000 in box, box 23 not opened) 50%
£2 (£1 in box, double in box 23) 10%
£1 (£1 in box, money back in box 23) 10%
50p (£1 in box, half in box 23) 10%
£0 (£1 in box, nothing in box 23) 10%
Overall summary:
£10,000 or £10,001 = 60%
£2 or less = 40%
As you can see it is pretty much an all or nothing game.
The average might be in theory £6,000 but you are only playing the game once.
Assuming you take the deal of £3,023 and you also then deal box 23.
The top prize is worth more. But there is a better chance of winning something more middle of the road.
However the chance of winning peanuts is greatly reduced, as it is only the nothing option in box 23 that means you win nothing. If you only win £1, double, money back, half or nothing, means you win nothing!
The overall decision I have made is that you are more likely to win more money by no dealing £3,023 but you are also more likely to win £2 or less. If you deal £3,023 you are more likely to win a more middle of the road amount, with the outside chance you can win £13,023.
Based on the real world I think GCT might be right. That doesn't mean your theory is wrong, but players need to think about more than just the theory whilst playing the game.
Well,I read through all that. I think your explanation of the various results if you open the box,while correct,is somewhat long winded,there is no practical difference between winning a pound or 50p or whatever,and you did not need to work all that out. You should just have skipped straight to "60% chance of winning £10K,40% chance of winning nothing."
As far as the real world is concerned,well,I will accept some loss of equity in order to reduce the variance. Obviously if you take the deal and go for Box23,the chance you end up with nothing reduces from 40% to 20%. But I would not take this as far as only accepting £3,000 on a £10K/low blue finish. the loss of equity is too great,and we are not talking about huge sums of money in the tens of thousands.
I would tell Noel to open my box,and if it was the blue,and Box23 was no help,then so be it. I wouldn't be that bothered. Three thousand pounds isn't going to change my life.
richie4eva, please don't forget to include any offer guarantees in the commentary. I know from the comments on the other forum that the Banker guaranteed a £16,000 offer if Paul went on and found the 1p in the first box. That was an important detail, as without it I would've no dealt at 5 box but with the guarantee I would have dealt as it made it clear that it really wasn't worth the risk to carry on.
richie4eva, please don't forget to include any offer guarantees in the commentary. I know from the comments on the other forum that the Banker guaranteed a £16,000 offer if Paul went on and found the 1p in the first box. That was an important detail, as without it I would've no dealt at 5 box but with the guarantee I would have dealt as it made it clear that it really wasn't worth the risk to carry on.
I agree CouponBoy, it would be nice to see this if it is at all possible. ;-)
Comments
Nice last minute manoeuvre GCT. :cool:
Box 15 please
NOOO!! NOT A PICTURE OF KIDS!! >:(
STILL THE SAME COMPETITION?! >:(
Box 7 - Krystle - £5
Box 17 - Aimee - £100
Box 6 - Ross - £5,000
Box 20 - Maggie - £35,000
Paul's prediction - £8,200
Actual opening offer - £8,000
NO DEAL
Offer button is in play
22 minutes in and it's already the SECOND BREAK >:(
Box 19 - Fatima - £1
Box 12 - Blaine - £3,000
2nd offer - £8,000
NO DEAL
Box 5 - Sayed - £250,000
Box 1 - Sharman - £500
Box 4 - Holly - £50
3rd offer - £6,000
NO DEAL
10p
ALL RED 3-BOX!!
Box 11 - Emily (newbie) - £100,000
Box 16 - Bill - £250
4th offer - £5,000
NO DEAL
Box 15 - Jan - 10p
Box 21 - Pam - £750
Box 3 - Leon - £10,000
5th offer - £12,000
NO DEAL
Box 2 - William - £1,000
Box 14 - Wayne - 1p
Paul pushes the button
DEAL
But whatever you do, DON'T DEAL BOX 23!!
Well thank goodness for that. NOTHING!
Box 10 - Iris - £15,000
Banker time with £20,000 and £50,000 left in the game
Closing offer would have been £35,000
Box 13 - £20,000
Box 22 - Serena - £50,000
Box 23 - NO DEAL
Contents - NOTHING
Yeah, could've had £35k but I don't think he'll be too gutted about missing out on an additional £9k.
Oh and I would've dealt at £12,000 if I didn't have the offer button.
I think you have forgotten the "real world" though.
Assumption: If the £10,000 is in the box you won't go to box 23, if the £1 is you will, and if you take the offer of £3,023 you also will.
If the deal of £3,023 isn't taken, either £10,000 or £1 is in the box.
Possible winnings are:
£10,001 (£1 in box, +£10,000 in box 23) 10%
£10,000 (£10,000 in box, box 23 not opened) 50%
£2 (£1 in box, double in box 23) 10%
£1 (£1 in box, money back in box 23) 10%
50p (£1 in box, half in box 23) 10%
£0 (£1 in box, nothing in box 23) 10%
Overall summary:
£10,000 or £10,001 = 60%
£2 or less = 40%
As you can see it is pretty much an all or nothing game.
The average might be in theory £6,000 but you are only playing the game once.
Assuming you take the deal of £3,023 and you also then deal box 23.
Possible winnings:
£13,023 = 20%.
£6,046 = 20%.
£3,023 = 20%.
£1,511.50 = 20%.
£0 = 20%.
Overall summary:
The top prize is worth more. But there is a better chance of winning something more middle of the road.
However the chance of winning peanuts is greatly reduced, as it is only the nothing option in box 23 that means you win nothing. If you only win £1, double, money back, half or nothing, means you win nothing!
The overall decision I have made is that you are more likely to win more money by no dealing £3,023 but you are also more likely to win £2 or less. If you deal £3,023 you are more likely to win a more middle of the road amount, with the outside chance you can win £13,023.
Based on the real world I think GCT might be right. That doesn't mean your theory is wrong, but players need to think about more than just the theory whilst playing the game.
But if the £15,000 is guaranteed, some people may look at it like this:
Boxes left £15,000 £20,000 and £50,000.
Offer button is used at 3 box with the offer £26,000
As said the £15,000 is guaranteed.
So you would be left with 3 boxes of £0 £5,000 and £35,000
An offer of £11,000.
You could say it was the best decision (again real world) to take the offer.
What happened Endemol?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EtTAmi8Y0NA
Well,I read through all that. I think your explanation of the various results if you open the box,while correct,is somewhat long winded,there is no practical difference between winning a pound or 50p or whatever,and you did not need to work all that out. You should just have skipped straight to "60% chance of winning £10K,40% chance of winning nothing."
As far as the real world is concerned,well,I will accept some loss of equity in order to reduce the variance. Obviously if you take the deal and go for Box23,the chance you end up with nothing reduces from 40% to 20%. But I would not take this as far as only accepting £3,000 on a £10K/low blue finish. the loss of equity is too great,and we are not talking about huge sums of money in the tens of thousands.
I would tell Noel to open my box,and if it was the blue,and Box23 was no help,then so be it. I wouldn't be that bothered. Three thousand pounds isn't going to change my life.
I'd never seen that before. I quite like it.
I agree CouponBoy, it would be nice to see this if it is at all possible. ;-)