Whatever this supposed poll says, I thought we were told a few weeks ago not to trust the polls, or does that only count when you don't like what they say?
Whatever this supposed poll says, I thought we were told a few weeks ago not to trust the polls, or does that only count when you don't like what they say?
Well I would to an extent agree with you but if there is a swing of 10-15 points over a few weeks then there must be a seed change in mentality - it would a a frightening change for the NO side.
Don't you think a 10-15 point swing in such a short space of time is just a bit too large to really be believable? I mean, we're talking about a LOT of people changing their minds in the space of just a few weeks, this despite the fact the polls had been comparatively stable for months. It feel to me there's something off here, especially when the most notable thing that's happened in that time is Salmond "winning" a debate by virtue of shouting the loudest.
It's only YouGov's that seems to have changed massively (the last survation one isn't really much different from how it was before the first debate, nobody else seems to have released polls since before the second debate), and the rumoured one tonight is from them- could they possibly have changed the way they're compiling the data?
Whatever this supposed poll says, I thought we were told a few weeks ago not to trust the polls, or does that only count when you don't like what they say?
The only valid polls are the ones THMS allows. If they aren't SNP friendly they are biased.
The only valid polls are the ones THMS allows. If they aren't SNP friendly they are biased.
So you keep saying. I've always said pollsters will not want to get their last poll wrong, and that their polls will move towards the true position nearer the time.
So you keep saying. I've always said pollsters will not want to get their last poll wrong, and that their polls will move towards the true position nearer the time.
Nope, on one day you posted a blog about not believing the pollsters then the next day you posted about sensational surge or something like that then the next day another pro yes headline in polls.
All from the one site - Scotgoespop is it?
You have talked about the 'Kellner' correction without stating what it is - because if you do then you know you will join the likes of Dare_Allan (and his numerous guises) in the sin bin. You even quoted the Scotgoespop blog where they had a go at Yougov where they basically implied that yougov decided the result before they analysed the data.
So you keep saying. I've always said pollsters will not want to get their last poll wrong, and that their polls will move towards the true position nearer the time.
No you've not. You've always big up any Poll that shows the Yes position gaining anything and dismissed polls that show otherwise.
You've also said it will be a massive landslide for Yes, just this week I believe.
Your attitude towards this has been exceedingly biased from the start.
Nope, on one day you posted a blog about not believing the pollsters then the next day you posted about sensational surge or something like that then the next day another pro yes headline in polls.
All from the one site - Scotgoespop is it?
You have talked about the 'Kellner' correction without stating what it is - because if you do then you know you will join the likes of Dare_Allan (and his numerous guises) in the sin bin. You even quoted the Scotgoespop blog where they had a go at Yougov where they basically implied that yougov decided the result before they analysed the data.
Thanks to Denise for pointing me in the direction of Kevin Pringle's tweet, revealing that YouGov - the most No-friendly pollster of the lot - is about to publish their best poll for Yes of the campaign so far. There are two ways of interpreting that - it could mean the best poll with Don't Knows included (which would imply a Yes vote of 38% or above, and a No vote of anything), or it could mean the best with Don't Knows excluded (which would imply a Yes vote of at least 43%, and a gap of no worse than 43/57). Obviously the latter would be better, but either way it's going to transform our perception of the polling landscape after three successive underwhelming YouGov polls. Taken in conjunction with the pro-Yes swings in the ICM and Panelbase polls, it will bolster the perception that there is now real momemtum behind Yes."
Obama, Canada and China come out in favour of the union.
I hope that no one votes according to what foreign governments suggest. If anything, their (perceived) interference will have the opposite effect to what they desire.
Comments
It's only YouGov's that seems to have changed massively (the last survation one isn't really much different from how it was before the first debate, nobody else seems to have released polls since before the second debate), and the rumoured one tonight is from them- could they possibly have changed the way they're compiling the data?
The only valid polls are the ones THMS allows. If they aren't SNP friendly they are biased.
The Edinburg Agreement sets out the legal basis for the referendum.
http://www.scotland.gov.uk/About/Government/concordats/Referendum-on-independence
So you keep saying. I've always said pollsters will not want to get their last poll wrong, and that their polls will move towards the true position nearer the time.
Nope, on one day you posted a blog about not believing the pollsters then the next day you posted about sensational surge or something like that then the next day another pro yes headline in polls.
All from the one site - Scotgoespop is it?
You have talked about the 'Kellner' correction without stating what it is - because if you do then you know you will join the likes of Dare_Allan (and his numerous guises) in the sin bin. You even quoted the Scotgoespop blog where they had a go at Yougov where they basically implied that yougov decided the result before they analysed the data.
No you've not. You've always big up any Poll that shows the Yes position gaining anything and dismissed polls that show otherwise.
You've also said it will be a massive landslide for Yes, just this week I believe.
Your attitude towards this has been exceedingly biased from the start.
Nope..
No it's not , had that been the case then only Scots born would be allowed to vote .
Your problem is that all of your posts are publicly available for anyone to see.
You can say nope all you want but you did do all of the things I said in my post.
Here is your post on the 'Kellner' correction.
First one posted 15th August
Next one 16th August
This one 17th August
So want to tell me what I got wrong?
Obama, Canada and China come out in favour of the union.
Nope indeed!
I have been consistent from the start of Part 1 of the thread.
Never had any doubt about a landslide Yes vote..
not me..
As I have said, your posts are there for all to see.
Deny it all you want but they are there.
Why? What makes you think there will be a landslide Yes vote and what constitutes a landslide.
A further question would be, what happens to you following a NO vote?
My links are there to see..
I hope that no one votes according to what foreign governments suggest. If anything, their (perceived) interference will have the opposite effect to what they desire.
there wont be a No vote..
The landslide is important because there will be no recount, and the result has to survive any legal challenge
What makes you think there will be a landslide Yes vote?
Not what's important to you but why you've arrived at this conclusion.
The links that you put in your posts.
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/scottish-independence/referendum-outcome