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Republican Nominee 2012 thread
Isn't it about time we had a decided thread to discuss the race to become the Republican nominee? (apologies if I have missed an already started thread!).
My thoughts on the main candidates so far
Michelle Buchanan - Way too much baggage to make the nominee - plus her private sector experience is very limited. She will get Tea Party support to keep her in the running though.
Mitt Romney - Probably the most moderate choice, but am not sure he will make it - seems to win the nominee its more about appealing to the GOP base, rather than what your appeal is to independent voters.
Rick Parry - massive build up from the press, need to see more of him before I can pass judgement.
Ron Paul - I like Ron Paul - his political way of thinking is becoming more and more relevant. He has no chance of being nominee but can add lots to the debate.
Sarah Palin - Will she or won't she? If the Buchanan wagon keeps on rolling I think she will have to sit this one out.
Newt Gringitch - comes across as a really vile person. Will attract a certain sort of GOP voter I guess, i.e. the racist, homophobic ones.
Tim Pawlenty - Appears to be crashing and burning
Rick Satorum - Little of chance of getting the nomination but maybe has a chance of getting the VP nomination if he can keep on going.
My thoughts on the main candidates so far
Michelle Buchanan - Way too much baggage to make the nominee - plus her private sector experience is very limited. She will get Tea Party support to keep her in the running though.
Mitt Romney - Probably the most moderate choice, but am not sure he will make it - seems to win the nominee its more about appealing to the GOP base, rather than what your appeal is to independent voters.
Rick Parry - massive build up from the press, need to see more of him before I can pass judgement.
Ron Paul - I like Ron Paul - his political way of thinking is becoming more and more relevant. He has no chance of being nominee but can add lots to the debate.
Sarah Palin - Will she or won't she? If the Buchanan wagon keeps on rolling I think she will have to sit this one out.
Newt Gringitch - comes across as a really vile person. Will attract a certain sort of GOP voter I guess, i.e. the racist, homophobic ones.
Tim Pawlenty - Appears to be crashing and burning
Rick Satorum - Little of chance of getting the nomination but maybe has a chance of getting the VP nomination if he can keep on going.
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Comments
Michelle Bachmann is hilarious - Cruella de Ville is who she reminds me of.
The thought that Iowa Republicans think this woman with her extreme views (and her hubby who tries to convert gays) is a potential President - well I don't know whether to laugh or cry.
At least Ron Paul has a coherent policy platform - some of it quite sensible (e.g. if you don't go around killing people in the middle east they wont want to kill you).
She makes good tv but really hasn't the substance to be the nominee. I imagine the GOP party machine will start setting the attack dogs onto her if she starts looking like she might be in within a chance.
Paul continues to be ingnored by the media, polling a high second in Iowa and topping the poll in the 3rd debate. Yet the talinkgs head still ignore him. He'll contimue to be a spoiler till the end.
Palin, Buchanan and Parry are in a dogfight for the right and are Romney's main competition. They can win the nomination but would get destroyed in the general.
Johnson, Gringitch, Santorum and Cain have little traction and will drop out sooner than later as the money dries up.
Huntsman had the chance to stake a claim to the middle ground but fluffed it in the 3rd debate and will be chewed up by the right by the time the nom is chosen.
Rommney will win the nom. But still lose the general.
The republicans are really in danger of tearing themselves apart in this cycle and I'm not sure they can see it coming.
I'm gonna say it's gonna be a Rommney/Johnson ticket for 2012.
Cant see it - Mitt still has the same problem he had last time - the Mormonism. Also Perry beat Romney in the Iowa straw poll and he (Perry) wasn't even on the ticket.
It will be a fight between Perry and Obama and the focus will be on the economy - if it improves in the next year Obama should win, if it doesn't then Perry's better record could swing it.
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/08/14/pawlenty-drops-out-of-republican-race/?hp
The Republicans are in a bind - the candidate who could beat Obama, Romney, is the one who the Tea Baggers & Righteous won't want as he's "liberal" and "not Christian". Yet the ones the Tea Baggers would pick - Bachmann, Palin, Perry - are barking mad even by the standards of US politics & hence don't even appeal to "liberal" Republicans, let alone independents or disaffected Democrats.
I think it's time for a 3rd Way candidate - someone like that nice Nehemiah Scudder
Do you mean Boris Johnson?:D
The former Governor of New Mexico (Gary Johnson) is still in the race but has no chance in my view - he is too libertarian and has no support in the polls.
Personally I know think as you say it is between Perry and Romney now - Bachmann may do well in Iowa but she won't be seen as a credible nominee so won't make it to the end.
Still - no votes will be cast in any real primaries or caucuses for another 5 months. So a lot can happen!
God help us all if any of them ever got within a sniff of the Whitehouse, perhaps Romney excepted. The rest need certifying.
Really it doesn't:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/aug/14/pass-notes-rick-perry
Massive, scary freak.
I don't think he's a massive scary freak. He got Texas back on its feet after the recession and if Perry can replicate that success nationwide then little else matters, in my opinion.
Quite!
Not really. I think your judgment is clouded and you paint anyone who expresses their faith publicly with the same brush.
Rick Perry has won re-election to the office of Governor twice in Texas, a huge diverse state. Of course Ron Paul is the ultimate candidate to challenge Obama all the young people love him, but he'd never be allowed to get the nomination.
Anyone who supports the teaching of 'intelligent design' in schools is a nutjob.