Windows Phone won't ever be a success according to IDC

Everything GoesEverything Goes Posts: 12,972
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Windows Phone won't ever be a success according to IDC. They reckon Microsoft's mobile OS will have 2.2% market share in 2015 and by 2019 will have 2.3% of the mobile market.

However a few years ago they were predicting predicts Android will have 43.8% of the market in 2015, followed by Windows Phone at 20.3%. Apple's iOS will trail at 16.9%.

So that said make of it what you will. On a personal level I don't see Microsoft making much progress.

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2015/12/07/windows_phone_wont_ever_be_a_thing_says_idc/


http://www.pcworld.com/article/230151/idc_windows_phones_to_overtake_iphone_ios_by_2015.html
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Comments

  • clonmultclonmult Posts: 3,366
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    I'm liking W10M, it is definitely smoother than Android .... looks better too. But MS are beyond incompetent at marketing, so I tend to agree with you.

    IDC are hilarious, how the heck have they got any sort of reputation as analysts, when all they do is just randomly pull figures out of their posterior?
  • Mark in EssexMark in Essex Posts: 3,836
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    Even though I have not had a Windows phone for years and not thinking of getting one in the near future I've got a feeling Microsoft are going to surprise us as to me it looks like their integration between PC, tablet/Surface and phone looks like it's getting quite good (although I have not had a play with them).

    Like said above though - they need better marketing as it's more about that nowadays.
  • SkipTracerSkipTracer Posts: 2,959
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    My view of Windows Mobile, I bought a Nokia 635 (W8.1) a couple of months ago to have a dabble with and agree the part about it being a smooth operator and I think it’s the best option for those who don’t get on well with tech.

    That said I was going to give the 635 to the OH after she cracked the screen on her 2 year old Moto G but she has got so used to Android now I just could not bare the “how do I get it to this” and “how do I do that” and the “it was so much easier on the G” I gave second thoughts to the changeover.:D

    The sort comings for the OS for me and noted on many forums is the apps situation with two apps I use a lot, FR24 and Rain-Alarm both have a Windows phone app and both feel lack lusty on Windows compared to the Android version and I’m not talking about just getting use to it, it really is pants.

    The apps for my Synology NAS are many on Android but only a couple on W 8 and these are just stuff copied from the Android version and not supported by Synology so I have no trust in them as these apps have accesses to my personal cloud and home network. Another app I use a lot with my NAS is viewing my live HD IP cameras, again no Windows app but a first class one on Android though I think there are W8 apps for viewing IP cameras, they are paid for ones while the Android version are free with no ads.

    I don’t know if MS seem to think there is no need for apps because all the things like I’ve mentioned above work within a browser and that’s true but the apps are purpose built and using a browser for me on a 4 + inch screen is no fun.

    What I do like about the few apps that do work well with W8 phones is the news and sport news apps plus also how easy it was to link Bluetooth data to my TomTom satnav for traffic information but this is something that has only become viable with a resent update to Windows mobile so things are getting better.

    Just my thoughts.;-)
  • BKMBKM Posts: 6,912
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    Windows Phone won't ever be a success according to IDC. They reckon Microsoft's mobile OS will have 2.2% market share in 2015 and by 2019 will have 2.3% of the mobile market.
    I have tried Windows Phone on an inexpensive handset (a Nokia 635) and it seemed to me to give a better user experience than Android on lower-end hardware. It's user-interface also seems to work well for novice smartphone users.

    It just needs to compete better at the high-end! :D
  • Aye UpAye Up Posts: 7,053
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    Once Windows 10 is fully rolled out across supported platform, I can see MS using mobile to tie in with their "Cloud First, Mobile First" iniative. Windows 10 mobile is quite versatile, it operates to the same level as Android if not better. The ability to sanbox enterprise applications within a secure layer (iOS lacks this), nicking a feature from Apple and allowing people to finish off writing emails between desktop and phone. Continuum which is Windows own version of Apple's own continuity, hand off between devices.

    I don't think it will ever gain traction in the consumer market, in the enterprise market it will do. MS is already positioning their revenue model to a service based offering. 5 years ago no one thought a monthly subscription to MS Office would ever take off.....it has! Microsoft has some really ambitious goals to exploit the whole ecosystem. Several companies are testing Windows mobile as it stands on the current 8.1 OS, reports are positive just needs further work.

    Android and Apple have the consumer market wrapped up, I can't see another OS making a big splash in the next few years, or until someone like LG or Samsung releases their own fork based on Android. For companies like MS, their bread and butter is enterprise and the business market, that is where the money comes from. Microsoft already supports a range of devices for its Azure platform, however I expect them to start pushing their Windows 10 based Lumias in the future.

    If MS or Windows 10 is so bad, how is it they are the only developer to release apps that are truly cross platform. Onedrive for example I can use on my iPad, S6 Edge and Lumia 1020. That isn't the case for the likes of Google or Apple. Theres life left in Windows mobile platform yet, MS finally seems to be getting its act together around one vision over many platforms.
  • AJ2001AJ2001 Posts: 619
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    Aye Up wrote: »
    Once Windows 10 is fully rolled out across supported platform, I can see MS using mobile to tie in with their "Cloud First, Mobile First" iniative. Windows 10 mobile is quite versatile, it operates to the same level as Android if not better. The ability to sanbox enterprise applications within a secure layer (iOS lacks this), nicking a feature from Apple and allowing people to finish off writing emails between desktop and phone. Continuum which is Windows own version of Apple's own continuity, hand off between devices.

    I don't think it will ever gain traction in the consumer market, in the enterprise market it will do. MS is already positioning their revenue model to a service based offering. 5 years ago no one thought a monthly subscription to MS Office would ever take off.....it has! Microsoft has some really ambitious goals to exploit the whole ecosystem. Several companies are testing Windows mobile as it stands on the current 8.1 OS, reports are positive just needs further work.

    Android and Apple have the consumer market wrapped up, I can't see another OS making a big splash in the next few years, or until someone like LG or Samsung releases their own fork based on Android. For companies like MS, their bread and butter is enterprise and the business market, that is where the money comes from. Microsoft already supports a range of devices for its Azure platform, however I expect them to start pushing their Windows 10 based Lumias in the future.

    If MS or Windows 10 is so bad, how is it they are the only developer to release apps that are truly cross platform. Onedrive for example I can use on my iPad, S6 Edge and Lumia 1020. That isn't the case for the likes of Google or Apple. Theres life left in Windows mobile platform yet, MS finally seems to be getting its act together around one vision over many platforms.

    Agree pretty much with everything. In terms of Lumia phones, specially high end, the 950 and 950XL could very well be the last ones (they are still a Nokia legacy) . Microsoft will launch a Surface phone towards the end of next year and rumour has it that it might even have Intel Processors.
  • pixel_pixelpixel_pixel Posts: 6,694
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    Dropping the Nokia name is a major mistake in my opinion.

    The new Lumia 950 is a poorly designed phone. Have Microsoft dropped the designers too? They has some really lovely designs on the Nokia phones, but the 950 is just terrible.

    Sticking Windows on a phone really downgrades the phone in my opinion.

    I do like the operating system though.
  • shaddlershaddler Posts: 11,574
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    If you want the best selection of apps then there's no point buying a Windows phone. So many major apps missing, and some of the official ones they do have are poor in comparison to the iOS/Android versions. The Facebook app is awful, and you can't even install an adblocker in the browser on Windows phone.

    The irony is that Windows is actually a better OS than Android, but unfortunately that's not enough to convince people to ditch their iPhones or LGs.
  • GigabitGigabit Posts: 8,768
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    Windows Phone has been screwed for at least three years. It had potential at first but it's coming up to five years old and the app selection is still dire.

    If you compare it to iOS and Android at this stage, both platforms were miles ahead in functionality and app selection (and in the case of Android, vendor selection).
  • 1manonthebog1manonthebog Posts: 3,707
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    Its dead, Even Paul Thurrott and Mary Jo have accepted this, Its seen as a device for enthusiasts only. The L950 phones have received crappyish reviews, W10 have also killed Project Astoria which was to port android apps to windows phone leaving just the bridge to port iOS apps to the Windows 10 desktop store sorry but I forget the name of this.

    Its going no where and W10 Mobile will not save it.
  • AJ2001AJ2001 Posts: 619
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    Its dead, Even Paul Thurrott and Mary Jo have accepted this, Its seen as a device for enthusiasts only. The L950 phones have received crappyish reviews, W10 have also killed Project Astoria which was to port android apps to windows phone leaving just the bridge to port iOS apps to the Windows 10 desktop store sorry but I forget the name of this.

    Its going no where and W10 Mobile will not save it.




    Can you point out where either Paul Thurrot and/or Mary Jo Foley actually said or admitted that W10M is dead. I do read their websites and listen to windows weekly podcast and don't recall reading/listening to anything similar.

    Yes, they (specially Paul) are very critical of the OS, said that they missed the boat years ago with poor/lack of strategy and that the next 2 years will be decisive for W10M (especially with the potential launch of the surface phone , which Paul is sure that MS is working on) . Paul also said that, although W10M will never catch up with either iOS or Android, there is room in the mobile phone market, including the enterprise side, where MS is making very good progress.
  • 1manonthebog1manonthebog Posts: 3,707
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    AJ2001 wrote: »
    Can you point out where either Paul Thurrot and/or Mary Jo Foley actually said or admitted that W10M is dead. I do read their websites and listen to windows weekly podcast and don't recall reading/listening to anything similar.

    Yes, they (specially Paul) are very critical of the OS, said that they missed the boat years ago with poor/lack of strategy and that the next 2 years will be decisive for W10M (especially with the potential launch of the surface phone , which Paul is sure that MS is working on) . Paul also said that, although W10M will never catch up with either iOS or Android, there is room in the mobile phone market, including the enterprise side, where MS is making very good progress.

    I never said they said it, I said they had accepted it. I recall even last week Mary Jo was talking about getting an iPhone. There was a time not in the not to distant past where they like a lot of people were all for Windows phone, saying it was growing, but in the last year their attitudes have changed they are no longer pro windows phone.
  • PencilPencil Posts: 5,700
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    I'm not surprised. The last great Windows Phone was the Nokia Lumia 930 (released July 14) which was never as good as the competition.

    Instead of building on the Windows PC experience or reinventing it for the smartphone, perhaps allowing users free scattered downloads of .exe style programs from websites, Microsoft outright copied the iOS walled-garden app store format, creating a poorer alternative as opposed to a different experience.

    Companies with no imagination deserve to fail.
  • AJ2001AJ2001 Posts: 619
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    I never said they said it, I said they had accepted it. I recall even last week Mary Jo was talking about getting an iPhone. There was a time not in the not to distant past where they like a lot of people were all for Windows phone, saying it was growing, but in the last year their attitudes have changed they are no longer pro windows phone.

    You need to listen to the last 2 podcasts again. Mary Jo's big issue is that Verizon doesn't sell the L950 and she thinks phone is not good enough for her to change networks. MJ will get the iPhone if nothing good comes out of MS next year. Paul thinks W10M is actually more robust and solid than either iOS or Android but MS strategy is the issue here. They are miles away from admitting W10M is dead.

    Lets not forget that the L950 is the last model coming out of the Nokia years and coming too late. The fact that the MS division responsible for the Surface took over the mobile phone development, shows that W10M is far from over.
  • finbaarfinbaar Posts: 4,818
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    Aye Up wrote: »

    If MS or Windows 10 is so bad, how is it they are the only developer to release apps that are truly cross platform. Onedrive for example I can use on my iPad, S6 Edge and Lumia 1020. That isn't the case for the likes of Google or Apple. Theres life left in Windows mobile platform yet, MS finally seems to be getting its act together around one vision over many platforms.

    Microsoft aren't bad. There new strategy of putting there services everywhere is a great idea. But they have to as WP is such a failure. I don't know why you bring Apple into the argument as they are not in the market of putting services on other devices. As for Google, well they want to see WP fail. It is an irrelevant OS and I can't see my self ever going back EXCEPT if they do a Intel phone that docks into a laptop.
  • pixel_pixelpixel_pixel Posts: 6,694
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    Should never have dropped the Nokia brand.
  • Aye UpAye Up Posts: 7,053
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    finbaar wrote: »
    Microsoft aren't bad. There new strategy of putting there services everywhere is a great idea. But they have to as WP is such a failure. I don't know why you bring Apple into the argument as they are not in the market of putting services on other devices. As for Google, well they want to see WP fail. It is an irrelevant OS and I can't see my self ever going back EXCEPT if they do a Intel phone that docks into a laptop.

    A lot of the crap we see, are the failures of Ballmer and Sinofsky, they shit on the platform so bad it lost credibility. Nadella has given MS a future relative to their desktop, mobile and cloud ambitions. I firmly see Window Phone 10 OS as firmly part of that package, they are not limiting this , actively developing for other platform like Android and iOS as part of that strategy. Microsoft is moving to a service subscription model, in essence its becoming the new blackberry, only working across several platforms.

    As for Apple not doing services on other device, I guess this doesn't count?

    https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.apple.android.music&hl=en_GB
  • alan1302alan1302 Posts: 6,336
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    Should never have dropped the Nokia brand.

    Why? What difference would a different name on a phone make?
  • TelevisionUserTelevisionUser Posts: 41,373
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    clonmult wrote: »
    I'm liking W10M, it is definitely smoother than Android .... looks better too. But MS are beyond incompetent at marketing, so I tend to agree with you.

    IDC are hilarious, how the heck have they got any sort of reputation as analysts, when all they do is just randomly pull figures out of their posterior?

    A lot of serious strategic mistakes were made during the Ballmer years which ultimately cost Microsoft billions in terms of liabilities and lost potential revenues.

    Satya Nadella comes across as more clued up, intelligent and flexible but he's got a lot of catching up to do because of his predecessor's (disastrous) actions. It's too soon to say how Windows Phone will do under Nadella.

    I suspect it will remain in third place over the next few years but the real question is whether it will be a creditable third place with potential or a very distant third place.
  • Everything GoesEverything Goes Posts: 12,972
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    Aye Up wrote: »
    A lot of the crap we see, are the failures of Ballmer and Sinofsky, they shit on the platform so bad it lost credibility. Nadella has given MS a future relative to their desktop, mobile and cloud ambitions. I firmly see Window Phone 10 OS as firmly part of that package, they are not limiting this , actively developing for other platform like Android and iOS as part of that strategy. Microsoft is moving to a service subscription model, in essence its becoming the new blackberry, only working across several platforms.

    As for Apple not doing services on other device, I guess this doesn't count?

    https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.apple.android.music&hl=en_GB

    Indeed Ballmer was terrible. Windows Mobile was badly neglected. It was seen as an unimportant side line and was left to wither. iOS and Android came along and Microsoft fell asleep at the wheel. It could have been so different. Ballmer is basically a money man who lacked vision.
  • wiltwilt Posts: 978
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    I don't think Ballmer was that bad - Microsoft have had some of their most successful years under him.

    Sure, iOS happened and Windows Mobile was made to look crap - but before iOS WM wasn't considered to be too bad. I don't think any CEO, visionary or not, would have been able to both predict and successfully compete against the iPhone. Google only managed it because Android wasn't out yet and they had no legacy to look after. Microsoft had to cut loose an entire existing ecosystem, while Google were able to turn it around on a dime.

    I'm not sure that Nadella is any better - he has pretty much given up on Windows Phone for consumers and has sanctioned the release of devices running what is basically a beta copy of Windows 10. If somebody does manage to pick up a 950 anywhere they will not be impressed.

    In addition there have been a number of other missteps recently for example reducing onedrive limits after building the damn thing deep in to Windows 10.
  • jonmorrisjonmorris Posts: 21,643
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    Windows Mobile was always bad, at least until version 6 or 6.5. It had a fair amount of business apps though, but for consumers was terrible. Anyone with any sense used a Palm or Symbian device (and they didn't work out either).

    Tom Warren hadn't inspired confidence in his 950XL review, and Windows 10 in general, and I fail to see how it can recover this late in the day.

    As with many things, it won't be the catch up of Windows, but rather a fall from Android or iOS for some reason. And both are riding high at the moment and for the foreseeable future.
  • tycho-magtycho-mag Posts: 8,642
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    jonmorris wrote: »
    Windows Mobile was always bad, at least until version 6 or 6.5. It had a fair amount of business apps though, but for consumers was terrible. Anyone with any sense used a Palm or Symbian device (and they didn't work out either).

    Having used Symbian and WM 6/6.5 I found the email on WM to be the best, but the other apps were better on Symbian. Neither was anywhere nearly as good as iOS / Android are today.

    I see a tiny market for WinPho which is corporates that ditch Blackberry and use Exchange email services as the handsets are cheaper than iOS and more trustworthy for corporate data than many androids (due to the update problems that platform has).

    However for corporates using Google Apps, or those using other systems (cough, Notes) then maybe Blackberry will survive with their hardened Android and cause WinPho trouble.

    Going to be a few years of death throws from both BB and WinPho I think.
  • TextmainiacTextmainiac Posts: 116
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    I was on the WM Insider program, until I decided that 8.1 Denim did everything I needed.

    The Windows mobile market seems to be segregating into three minority market sections, old-skulers like me who don't use FB or InstaGram, Spotify etc, an older generation who just want text, email, and decent phone call quality, and business users who can be given Head Office configured, remote-erasable phones, with the SD card slot disabled.

    WM phones (from Microsoft) also have TPM encryption and UEFI etc, so they are replacing BlackBerry in many organisations.

    The limits of Store available apps seems to bother some, and not others.

    Is Windows phone dead? Market share of Lumias fell to 1.7% this quarter. Time to buy a spare.
  • jonmorrisjonmorris Posts: 21,643
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    A (totally tech illiterate) friend asked me how to install an app for his gym recently and didn't even know he was using Windows Phone. He thought it was Android! Suffice to say, the app was only Android and iOS.

    Goodness knows how he never noticed, but he'd purchased it (on prepay) because it looked nice and was cheap. He'd also had many Nokia phones before.

    I wonder how many other people bought a Lumia (especially the 5nn range) without having a clue about the OS. These people won't know the platform lacks apps as they've possibly for nothing to compare against.
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