Douglas Carswell was very aware until quite recently that the only way us, the British people, would have a say on the European Union, was if David Cameron won the 2015 General Election, as only the Tories can provide us with one. He knows full well that UKIP can NOT win under First Past the Post, and he knows that UKIP helps Labour.
Carswell has made a Labour Government more likely with this move. A very poor, and self defeating decision.
I think it is more likely that he sees the renegotiations will be presented as a success and a yes vote will be sought with the relevant powerful propaganda and well funded campaign to secure a result. It could be like all the previous treaties and renegotiations though where the politicians will be uncertain (or possibly totally ignorant) of what they have agreed but will spin it as positive for all they are worth and in many cases tell outright lies.
There is going to be two elections in clacton in the space of 9 months. So it is means that the clacton electorate is going to have to vote twice in sept/oct 2014 and may 2015.
If the mainstream parties are serious about ending the UKIP threat then they should ALL sign up to give the people a referendum on EU membership a year of the general election happening.
If the people vote to keeping in then UKIP will surely die as their arguement will be void
The thing is, things like this could well damage the UKIP vote drawn from the left.
I doubt it why should it a lot of UKIP votes will come from old Labour {left} voters of which there are many in Clacton, former working class retired people who do not like the way things are going.
After all prominent Lefties such as Tony Benn and Peter Shore were against the UK joining the EU in the first place.
I doubt it why should it a lot of UKIP votes will come from old Labour {left} voters of which there are many in Clacton, former working class retired people who do not like the way things are going.
After all prominent Lefties such as Tony Benn and Peter Shore were against the UK joining the EU in the first place.
I don't think a single change like this will, but I'd say wider association with the Tory party would put some left wing folk right off.
UKIP have tried recently to distance themselves a little from the 'just extreme anti EU Tories' tag.
Anti EU or not, some folk won't like the stink of a party full of rotten ex Tories, trying to paint an image of something they are not, apart from anti EU.
I don't think a single change like this will, but I'd say wider association with the Tory party would put some left wing folk right off.
UKIP have tried recently to distance themselves a little from the 'just extreme anti EU Tories' tag.
Yes indeed i think even UKIP themselves have realised they need to take votes from other parties to get any MPs which is why they have moderated their message.
On the single issue of Europe the Old Left and UKIP have more in common then they did with NU Labour under Tony Blair i would suggest.
But UKIP will have to broaden their appeal to have the desired effect on the UK political establishment i think.
At 43, he could easily be the next leader of UKIP.
And turn off traditionalLabourvoters quicker than you can say "New Tory Party".
Just who is Labour appealing to at the moment certainly not their traditional voter base methinks they are talking to the metropolitan elite,rather then the poor s-d who flogs himself to death on a production line.
At 43, he could easily be the next leader of UKIP, especially as Farage wants to stand down.
And he would turn off traditional Labour voters quicker than you can say "New Tory Party".
He may turn off some Labour voters (who have always liked Farage as a "decent bloke" with his drinking, smoking and ant-foreigner vibe) but he may also attract more Tories, so it might be a positive sum game.
Just who is Labour appealing to at the moment certainly not their traditional voter base methinks they are talking to the metropolitan elite,rather then the poor s-d who flogs himself to death on a production line.
IE They are talking to themselves.
I think you're right about the appeal of Labour. However, I don't think the disillusioned are going to find ex Tories, arguably extreme Tories, too tempting to jump into bed with.
At 43, he could easily be the next leader of UKIP, especially as Farage wants to stand down.
And he would turn off traditional Labour voters quicker than you can say "New Tory Party".
I fail to see that. Anyone who favours voting UKIP will be doing so about the core issue of leaving the EU.
Carswell obviously believes that is the way to go and he has been consistent in that message.
Inevitably, UKIP opponents are trying to play down Carswell's defection. Expect the usual insults, innuendo, and lies about him. I think voters are more sophisticated these days. I'm sure they can make up their own mind as to whether he is genuine and whether he will represent their interests and beliefs.
I think you're right about the appeal of Labour. However, I don't think the disillusioned are going to find ex Tories, arguably extreme Tories, too tempting to jump into bed with.
I am sorry Jol i think they might just be tempted as i said on the euro issue Old Labour and UKIP seem to have much more in common,a referendum however might change things.
Labour need to start reaching out their latest appointment was a child,and woman domestic violence tsar did i miss the word man out of this.
I read 1/3 women and 1/5 men suffer from domestic violence Labour does not a seem to recognise males suffer too sometimes.
For a party that prides itself on equality its damming,they have a minister for women already.!
They really do need to get out of London more. I really hope i can vote Labour with pride once more one day.
In my area they even had an all women shortlist maybe they should have bought in another Mrs Jack Dromey :D
l might not agree with him but at least he's making a principled stand just like David Davis did a few years ago. Unfortunately, this is so rare in British politics these days.
It'll make politics more interesting over the next few months and I'm sure that the Conservatives descending into the Headless Chicken Show because it will make for some great entertainment.
Higher than many parliamentary by elections this parliament. And let's be clear they got more than Labour, Tories, LDs and Greens combined in his seat!
Turnout for the East of England was about 35%, turnout for by-elections in this parliament have varied from about 28% to about 50%, I would guess, on average, about 40%. So, your claim is a little off.
I am sure superior leftie metropolitan elitists like you rather look down on the sort of patriotic people who live in Clacton Frinton and the like but it's about as good an area for UKIP as you can get. And Carswell is hugely popular there.
So you may just have to suck it up!
Metropolitan elite? What criteria do I need to fit, for me to qualify as a member of the Metropolitan elite?
Turnout for the East of England was about 35%, turnout for by-elections in this parliament have varied from about 28% to about 50%, I would guess, on average, about 40%. So, your claim is a little off.
Metropolitan elite? What criteria do I need to fit, for me to qualify as a member of the Metropolitan elite?
I suspect that byelection will be one of those that produces a higher than average vote plus there's be plenty of press coverage so local voters will certainly be aware that a byelection's going on.
Although he's taken a big risk, Carswell might actually pull this one off. As well a large increase in UKIP share of the vote, Carswell's the incumbent and that's usually worth a few thousand votes. Indeed, he's one of those MPs who actually got absolute majority support (< 50%) at the last general election.
Not sure if this point has been already made but by resigning his seat and setting a precedent Carswell has probably made more tory defections to UKIP less likely as some may not be so confident of being returned in a by-election.
Firstly, the last section of the first paragraph of what you wrote borders on being libelous.
How so? Are you trying to convince people that he hadn't been unfaithful to both of his wives?
If a man is so willing to lie so easily to his own family, what is he willing to lie about to the electorate?
Nobody has an obligatation in life to pay more tax then they should. So good luck to him if he took advantage of any loopholes. I'd do the same if I were well off. It's up to the government to close them.
I am not talking of loopholes. Find out a little more about him and you will know what I am referring to.
Meanwhile, if you want to raise the issue of loopholes, it would be best for Farage to stop criticising people for using them; these sorts of things tend to come back and bite you on the bottom.
In regards to MEP expenses I don't have a problem with UKIP and their MP's claiming every last penny from the EU. They put the money to use for campaigning for UKIP they don't use it for personal gain. Unlike the criminal MEps from other parties who turn up to claim their 300 Euros a day allowance and leave straight away. The UKIP meps provide opposition to the criminal and illegal workings of the EU and the way it operates against democracy.
So, you have no problem with them claiming millions upon millions of pounds of taxpayers' money and do absolutely nothing in return for it? You don't care if that they might fiddling millions of pounds?
And this lot have the gall to go after benefits claimants. The hypocrisy is astounding.
You have absolutely no idea what they use their expenses for (so I don't see how you can say that they use it for campaigning), since they haven't seen fit to publish their expenses. Farage has criticised other parties for not publishing their expenses (Labour MEPs all publish theirs), but refuses to publish his; I wonder why.
Your second paragraph starts with exactly what I said already. So why repeat it?
You've got me on that one, I think I might have missed something..
Just who is Labour appealing to at the moment certainly not their traditional voter base methinks they are talking to the metropolitan elite,rather then the poor s-d who flogs himself to death on a production line.
IE They are talking to themselves.
I agree but don't think Tories defecting to UKIP will add to UKIP's appeal.
He may turn off some Labour voters (who have always liked Farage as a "decent bloke" with his drinking, smoking and ant-foreigner vibe) but he may also attract more Tories, so it might be a positive sum game.
Possibly but it will "southernise" them again. And the economic policy will be heavily scruntinised.
I fail to see that. Anyone who favours voting UKIP will be doing so about the core issue of leaving the EU.
Carswell obviously believes that is the way to go and he has been consistent in that message.
Inevitably, UKIP opponents are trying to play down Carswell's defection. Expect the usual insults, innuendo, and lies about him. I think voters are more sophisticated these days. I'm sure they can make up their own mind as to whether he is genuine and whether he will represent their interests and beliefs.
EU is the core issue and I'm with them on that one. Well, actually, I could also cope with the return of a Western European EU but that's not going to happen. The question is what happens when issues like NHS, pensions, etc are raised. It is not that they are at all safe in others' hands but would they be more safe in a UKIP with Tory defectors?
Jeez you do get stuck on piffling points. At the time he made his announcement, he had not resigned from Parliament, therefore he remains an MP under whatever banner he likes. You don't have to belong to a party to be a MP. Got it now?
Piffling points or not, it really would be an advantage of you actually followed the thread, before posting.
The discussion was relating to whether he was a UKIP MP. At the time he made the announcement he wasn't even a member of UKIP, let alone been adopted as their choice for parliamentary candidate.
Not sure if this point has been already made but by resigning his seat and setting a precedent Carswell has probably made more tory defections to UKIP less likely as some may not be so confident of being returned in a by-election.
It might work the other way too. If Carswell does successfully retain his seat then perhaps more Conservative MPs might consider crossing over to UKIP nearer the general election.
It will be one hell of a political upset if Carswell does it though.
I wonder if UKIP have 5 or 6 Tories lined up to jump ship and have a by-election every few weeks leading up to the general election........that could give UKIP some real momentum
Imagine going into a general election with UKIP having won 6 by-elections in the previous few months........they'd be unstoppable
I wonder if that kind of tactic has occurred to them ?........
The danger would be that people might just see them as gimmicks after one or two
I am not sure they would be willing to take such a risk of losing six seats at the general election.
Ted Millipede will be forced to offer a referendum with his dismal personal ratings and his so so poll lead mark my words.
You do realise that making up silly names for politicians makes you look a bit silly and does your credibility, as a political observer, no good at all.
[QUOTE=Nessun Dorma;74504749I am not talking of loopholes. Find out a little more about him and you will know what I am referring to.
]Meanwhile, if you want to raise the issue of loopholes, it would be best for Farage to stop criticising people for using them; these sorts of things tend to come back and bite you on the bottom. [/QUOTE]
Are you talking about him putting his appearance fees through a limited company paying a lower rate of tax? That is perfectly legal.
So, you have no problem with them claiming millions upon millions of pounds of taxpayers' money and do absolutely nothing in return for it? You don't care if that they might fiddling millions of pounds?
I want them to claim every penny their entitled too from the disgusting EU. It's been stated by Nigel Farage that he uses all the funds he receives for campaigning. That's good enough for me. At least they provide opposition and are not on the gravy train like the vacuous Kinnock family. Can you imagine the Kinnocks saying they want to disband the EU? I doubt it.
You have absolutely no idea what they use their expenses for (so I don't see how you can say that they use it for campaigning), since they haven't seen fit to publish their expenses. Farage has criticised other parties for not publishing their expenses (Labour MEPs all publish theirs), but refuses to publish his; I wonder why.
You've totally ignored what I told you about most MEP's turning up and going home for their 300 Euros a day. At least UKIP are there to provide opposition to this system and want it stopped.
You've got me on that one, I think I might have missed something.. :confused
I explained that Nigel Farage has said he would disband the party if we vote to leave Europe as his job will be done. You saw fit to repeat that when I had already said it for some reason?
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I think it is more likely that he sees the renegotiations will be presented as a success and a yes vote will be sought with the relevant powerful propaganda and well funded campaign to secure a result. It could be like all the previous treaties and renegotiations though where the politicians will be uncertain (or possibly totally ignorant) of what they have agreed but will spin it as positive for all they are worth and in many cases tell outright lies.
If the mainstream parties are serious about ending the UKIP threat then they should ALL sign up to give the people a referendum on EU membership a year of the general election happening.
If the people vote to keeping in then UKIP will surely die as their arguement will be void
I doubt it why should it a lot of UKIP votes will come from old Labour {left} voters of which there are many in Clacton, former working class retired people who do not like the way things are going.
After all prominent Lefties such as Tony Benn and Peter Shore were against the UK joining the EU in the first place.
I don't think a single change like this will, but I'd say wider association with the Tory party would put some left wing folk right off.
UKIP have tried recently to distance themselves a little from the 'just extreme anti EU Tories' tag.
Anti EU or not, some folk won't like the stink of a party full of rotten ex Tories, trying to paint an image of something they are not, apart from anti EU.
Yes indeed i think even UKIP themselves have realised they need to take votes from other parties to get any MPs which is why they have moderated their message.
On the single issue of Europe the Old Left and UKIP have more in common then they did with NU Labour under Tony Blair i would suggest.
But UKIP will have to broaden their appeal to have the desired effect on the UK political establishment i think.
At 43, he could easily be the next leader of UKIP, especially as Farage wants to stand down.
And he would turn off traditional Labour voters quicker than you can say "New Tory Party".
Just who is Labour appealing to at the moment certainly not their traditional voter base methinks they are talking to the metropolitan elite,rather then the poor s-d who flogs himself to death on a production line.
IE They are talking to themselves.
He may turn off some Labour voters (who have always liked Farage as a "decent bloke" with his drinking, smoking and ant-foreigner vibe) but he may also attract more Tories, so it might be a positive sum game.
I think you're right about the appeal of Labour. However, I don't think the disillusioned are going to find ex Tories, arguably extreme Tories, too tempting to jump into bed with.
I fail to see that. Anyone who favours voting UKIP will be doing so about the core issue of leaving the EU.
Carswell obviously believes that is the way to go and he has been consistent in that message.
Inevitably, UKIP opponents are trying to play down Carswell's defection. Expect the usual insults, innuendo, and lies about him. I think voters are more sophisticated these days. I'm sure they can make up their own mind as to whether he is genuine and whether he will represent their interests and beliefs.
I am sorry Jol i think they might just be tempted as i said on the euro issue Old Labour and UKIP seem to have much more in common,a referendum however might change things.
Labour need to start reaching out their latest appointment was a child,and woman domestic violence tsar did i miss the word man out of this.
I read 1/3 women and 1/5 men suffer from domestic violence Labour does not a seem to recognise males suffer too sometimes.
For a party that prides itself on equality its damming,they have a minister for women already.!
They really do need to get out of London more. I really hope i can vote Labour with pride once more one day.
In my area they even had an all women shortlist maybe they should have bought in another Mrs Jack Dromey
l might not agree with him but at least he's making a principled stand just like David Davis did a few years ago. Unfortunately, this is so rare in British politics these days.
It'll make politics more interesting over the next few months and I'm sure that the Conservatives descending into the Headless Chicken Show because it will make for some great entertainment.
Turnout for the East of England was about 35%, turnout for by-elections in this parliament have varied from about 28% to about 50%, I would guess, on average, about 40%. So, your claim is a little off.
Metropolitan elite? What criteria do I need to fit, for me to qualify as a member of the Metropolitan elite?
How on Earth would me standing against Farage prove how representative of the working people he is? What an absurd challenge!
I suspect that byelection will be one of those that produces a higher than average vote plus there's be plenty of press coverage so local voters will certainly be aware that a byelection's going on.
Although he's taken a big risk, Carswell might actually pull this one off. As well a large increase in UKIP share of the vote, Carswell's the incumbent and that's usually worth a few thousand votes. Indeed, he's one of those MPs who actually got absolute majority support (< 50%) at the last general election.
How so? Are you trying to convince people that he hadn't been unfaithful to both of his wives?
If a man is so willing to lie so easily to his own family, what is he willing to lie about to the electorate?
I am not talking of loopholes. Find out a little more about him and you will know what I am referring to.
Meanwhile, if you want to raise the issue of loopholes, it would be best for Farage to stop criticising people for using them; these sorts of things tend to come back and bite you on the bottom.
So, you have no problem with them claiming millions upon millions of pounds of taxpayers' money and do absolutely nothing in return for it? You don't care if that they might fiddling millions of pounds?
And this lot have the gall to go after benefits claimants. The hypocrisy is astounding.
You have absolutely no idea what they use their expenses for (so I don't see how you can say that they use it for campaigning), since they haven't seen fit to publish their expenses. Farage has criticised other parties for not publishing their expenses (Labour MEPs all publish theirs), but refuses to publish his; I wonder why.
You've got me on that one, I think I might have missed something..
I agree but don't think Tories defecting to UKIP will add to UKIP's appeal.
Possibly but it will "southernise" them again. And the economic policy will be heavily scruntinised.
EU is the core issue and I'm with them on that one. Well, actually, I could also cope with the return of a Western European EU but that's not going to happen. The question is what happens when issues like NHS, pensions, etc are raised. It is not that they are at all safe in others' hands but would they be more safe in a UKIP with Tory defectors?
Piffling points or not, it really would be an advantage of you actually followed the thread, before posting.
The discussion was relating to whether he was a UKIP MP. At the time he made the announcement he wasn't even a member of UKIP, let alone been adopted as their choice for parliamentary candidate.
It might work the other way too. If Carswell does successfully retain his seat then perhaps more Conservative MPs might consider crossing over to UKIP nearer the general election.
It will be one hell of a political upset if Carswell does it though.
Flippin' 'eck, give a guy a chance. I do have better things to do than hang on your every word.
I am not sure they would be willing to take such a risk of losing six seats at the general election.
You do realise that making up silly names for politicians makes you look a bit silly and does your credibility, as a political observer, no good at all.
]Meanwhile, if you want to raise the issue of loopholes, it would be best for Farage to stop criticising people for using them; these sorts of things tend to come back and bite you on the bottom. [/QUOTE]
Are you talking about him putting his appearance fees through a limited company paying a lower rate of tax? That is perfectly legal.
I want them to claim every penny their entitled too from the disgusting EU. It's been stated by Nigel Farage that he uses all the funds he receives for campaigning. That's good enough for me. At least they provide opposition and are not on the gravy train like the vacuous Kinnock family. Can you imagine the Kinnocks saying they want to disband the EU? I doubt it.
They haven't.
You've totally ignored what I told you about most MEP's turning up and going home for their 300 Euros a day. At least UKIP are there to provide opposition to this system and want it stopped.
I explained that Nigel Farage has said he would disband the party if we vote to leave Europe as his job will be done. You saw fit to repeat that when I had already said it for some reason?
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