So, Pollsters are the **** of Politics...

TassiumTassium Posts: 31,639
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It does seem that polling organisations will give their client anything they want nowadays.


It's always the way, those who would wish to control will find a way of doing it. And a very good way to manipulate public opinion is to use the poll.

Carefully chosen wording and blammo!, "the UK public wish to see a return of hanging for shoplifters and benefit cheats"


Polling organisations need to be careful. They will find in a few years they're no longer believed, we're almost there now.

Comments

  • MARTYM8MARTYM8 Posts: 44,710
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    You have to question what is the point of them.

    This week we had two polls on EU membership - one showed support for staying in the EU 20% ahead of leaving whereas the other (asking exactly the same question) had a lead of only 1 per cent.

    This contrasts with other polls in the last 3-4 months - by different pollsters - by contrast showing leads to leave by as much as 11 per cent.

    So apparently 20% more people want us to stay in than leave, or its a tie or 11 per cent more want to leave.

    Utter nonsense - give me £10k and I will just make up any old numbers. Cos that is what they seem to be doing!:D
  • GreatGodPanGreatGodPan Posts: 53,186
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    Tassium wrote: »
    It does seem that polling organisations will give their client anything they want nowadays.


    It's always the way, those who would wish to control will find a way of doing it. And a very good way to manipulate public opinion is to use the poll.

    Carefully chosen wording and blammo!, "the UK public wish to see a return of hanging for shoplifters and benefit cheats"


    Polling organisations need to be careful. They will find in a few years they're no longer believed, we're almost there now.

    Is that a leak from UKIP's 2015 General Election manifesto?
  • BanglaRoadBanglaRoad Posts: 57,582
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    Who pays the pollster can be interesting
    Like the recent poll from Rochester for example
  • MARTYM8MARTYM8 Posts: 44,710
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    BanglaRoad wrote: »
    Who pays the pollster can be interesting
    Like the recent poll from Rochester for example

    Do you think Comres are going to fiddle poll results to help UKIP - the Tories are the ones with big pockets. The fact it was paid for by UKIP only influenced the supplementary questions - not the poll results.

    The results of that Comres poll are pretty much in line (i.e. within the margin of error) with the Survation poll earlier this month which had a 9 per cent UKIP lead in Rochester (40 to 31 percent) - and their support has risen in the national polls since then. Or is the Guardian in UKIP's pocket too?:D

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/oct/05/ukip-mark-reckless-on-course-win-rochester-byelection-poll

    So suggest poll methodologies may be rubbish - but dont imply established pollsters fiddle results to help any party. Cos its game over for them as a company if they did that - no one would ever trust them again!
  • BanglaRoadBanglaRoad Posts: 57,582
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    MARTYM8 wrote: »
    Do you think Comres are going to fiddle poll results to help UKIP - the Tories are the ones with big pockets. The fact it was paid for by UKIP only influenced the supplementary questions - not the poll results.

    The results of that Comres poll are pretty much in line (i.e. within the margin of error) with the Survation poll earlier this month which had a 9 per cent UKIP lead in Rochester (40 to 31 percent) - and their support has risen in the national polls since then. Or is the Guardian in UKIP's pocket too?:D

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/oct/05/ukip-mark-reckless-on-course-win-rochester-byelection-poll

    So suggest poll methodologies may be rubbish - but dont imply established pollsters fiddle results to help any party. Cos its game over for them as a company if they did that - no one would ever trust them again!

    Oh I do love a twitchy Kipper
    If the Tories had paid for a poll which showed them in the lead all the little Kipperites would be on here slating it You know they would
  • MARTYM8MARTYM8 Posts: 44,710
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    BanglaRoad wrote: »
    Oh I do love a twitchy Kipper
    If the Tories had paid for a poll which showed them in the lead all the little Kipperites would be on here slating it You know they would

    I only see you doing that.

    Anyone who thinks any pollster is going to fiddle a poll results to benefit any particular party is delusional - because if they got found out their company would be finished as no one would ever use them again. Criticise methodology differences and weightings - but they won't fiddle results to please who is funding it. Otherwise Lord Ashcrofts polls would always forecast a Tory majority - they don't!

    So - no - its just you that has libelled Comres. I would say the same thing to any UKIP supporter who seriously suggested such nonsense.
  • PrestonAlPrestonAl Posts: 10,342
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    pollsters have a lot at stake. Not giving accurate results would ruin them. Each pollster has a slightly different way of coming up with a result, which is open to public scrutiny.

    Lots of polling questions appear after pollsters baseline questions which don't change. The subsequent questions are generally decided and set by the customer.

    Generally if you don't like a result, people blame the pollster rather than the fact their chosen party doesn't have super solid support or the answer people given disagrees with them.
  • jsmith99jsmith99 Posts: 20,382
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    I really don't see what use opinion polls are to anyone except politicians. Because of that, I give lying answers to them on principle.
  • BanglaRoadBanglaRoad Posts: 57,582
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    MARTYM8 wrote: »
    I only see you doing that.

    Anyone who thinks any pollster is going to fiddle a poll results to benefit any particular party is delusional - because if they got found out their company would be finished as no one would ever use them again. Criticise methodology differences and weightings - but they won't fiddle results to please who is funding it. Otherwise Lord Ashcrofts polls would always forecast a Tory majority - they don't!

    So - no - its just you that has libelled Comres. I would say the same thing to any UKIP supporter who seriously suggested such nonsense.

    This from the poster who in the opinion polls thread keeps trashing you gov polls due to the husband of some baroness Ah well it is good to know double standards are alive and kicking
  • MARTYM8MARTYM8 Posts: 44,710
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    BanglaRoad wrote: »
    This from the poster who in the opinion polls thread keeps trashing you gov polls due to the husband of some baroness Ah well it is good to know double standards are alive and kicking

    Oh you are tetchy aren't you.

    I merely noted a connection between the guy who runs you gov and the soon to be ex EU foreign minister - with a smilie. Now she has secured her pay off and pension his polling is showing it neck and neck on the EU referendum front.

    Is there a coincidence - that's not for me to determine.

    You however did definitively state - with your usual lack of joy and humour - that Comres had fiddled a by election poll to favour the party who had paid for it.
  • BanglaRoadBanglaRoad Posts: 57,582
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    MARTYM8 wrote: »
    Oh you are tetchy aren't you.

    I merely noted a connection between the guy who runs you gov and the soon to be ex EU foreign minister - with a smilie. Now she has secured her pay off and pension his polling is showing it neck and neck on the EU referendum front.

    Is there a coincidence - that's not for me to determine.

    You however did definitively state - with your usual lack of joy and humour - that Comres had fiddled a by election poll to favour the party who had paid for it.

    Show me the post where I definitively stated that
    Because it is tres naughty to accuse me of something I have not said
    Jog on and find this post
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