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Europe on the verge of Banking CRISIS

mickbirch2000mickbirch2000 Posts: 745
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Alistair Darling painted a very bleak & dangerous picture on Andrew Marr this morning, perhaps because he is no longer in government he is able to speak candidly, we are on the verge of another banking crisis in Europe caused by the apparent inability of the politicians to engender any confidence that they have an answer.
We now have David Cameron calling for policies for growth & jobs to be top priority in Europe, presumably he's forgotten that Britain is part of Europe because Osborne is sticking to plan A we were told a few days ago & austerity + deficit reduction + cutbacks are top priority. To be fair plan A probably would have worked if it wasnt for the rest of Europe's economies now being very weak. Time for plan B, lets hope Obama has talked sternly in to Merkel/Cameron the main proponents of AUSTERITY . Are we about to see a u-turn George? how are you going to explain it? With people withdrawing millions of Euros from their banks something needs to happen quickly, the contagion is speading & hopefully will focus minds again....:mad:
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    ShoobeedooShoobeedoo Posts: 304
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    Failed banks should be allowed to go bust, it's what happens in a free market that corrects for it's mistakes, the problem with Darling is that as in 2008 he advocates interveneing with taxpayers money to bail out the crooks and gamblers and socialise their losses, when they make their super profits the bankers never send any of it our way, it should be a two way street. So shut up darling you pratt, the good banks left standing will pick up the pieces once the initial crisis of a few failed banks played through, the world would not come to an end.
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    mossy2103mossy2103 Posts: 84,314
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    Shoobeedoo wrote: »
    Failed banks should be allowed to go bust.

    And the unfortunate people who have their savings in those banks?

    And the small businesses who have lines of credit with those banks?

    And not forgetting the sheep effect, we see one bank go under, we think that our bank will be next so we withdraw our funds, causing that bank to fail.... and the next one, and the next one and so it continues .....

    We quickly move to a situation where few people have any confidence in any bank, preferring to see their savings and wages in hard cash, and where the whole banking system grinds to a halt - no cheques, no payments, no hard cash, no loans, no mortgages.
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    clinchclinch Posts: 11,574
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    mossy2103 wrote: »
    And the unfortunate people who have their savings in those banks?

    The savings are guaranteed.
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    Nick1966Nick1966 Posts: 15,742
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    clinch wrote: »
    The savings are guaranteed.

    So when your bank goes bust, you will not notice any difference at all. It will be banking business as usual.
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    Nick1966Nick1966 Posts: 15,742
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    Alistair Darling ... is no longer in government he is able to speak candidly

    Agreed.

    Thus confirming when politicians are in government, they do not speak candidly.
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    jmclaughjmclaugh Posts: 64,005
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    What another one, so how many days is it this week to save the €.
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    Nick1966Nick1966 Posts: 15,742
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    mossy2103 wrote: »
    We quickly move to a situation where few people have any confidence in any bank, preferring to see their savings and wages in hard cash, and where the whole banking system grinds to a halt - no cheques, no payments, no hard cash, no loans, no mortgages.

    At this point, I'm reminded of the story when RBS came within 2 hours of collapse back in October 2008.

    On their way to crisis talks with the government, a senior RBS official told their spouse to go to a cashpoint and withdraw a load of cash out.

    The Greeks are doing the same.
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    mossy2103mossy2103 Posts: 84,314
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    clinch wrote: »
    The savings are guaranteed.
    And where is the Government going to get the money from to bail out hundreds of thousands (if not millions) of savers?

    And that ignores the inevitable long delays in being able to make a claim and then actually get that money from the Government.

    As well as the issues around those people who were unfortunate enough to have their salaries paid into that bank, as well as the businesses who had their accounts there 9and are now no longer able to pay their employees as they cannot access their funds).

    And by which time, other people will have lost confidence in other banks ......
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    clinchclinch Posts: 11,574
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    Nick1966 wrote: »
    So when your bank goes bust, you will not notice any difference at all. It will be banking business as usual.

    I answered the question. The savings are guaranteed.
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    mossy2103mossy2103 Posts: 84,314
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    Nick1966 wrote: »
    So when your bank goes bust, you will not notice any difference at all. It will be banking business as usual.
    Yes of course, your direct debits will still get processed, you will still get your salary paid into that bank, your mortgage payment will get processed, you will still be able to pay by a cheque drawn on that bank, you will still be able to withdraw small sums from cashpoint machines in order to pay the weekly shopping bill ....

    Or maybe not on all counts. Maybe there will be hundreds of thousands of people with no access to any cash at all, and no means to pay any automated bill.
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    Nick1966Nick1966 Posts: 15,742
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    mossy2103 wrote: »
    And where is the Government going to get the money from to bail out hundreds of thousands (if not millions) of savers?

    Print the money. Printed £325 billion so far.
    mossy2103 wrote: »
    And that ignores the inevitable long delays in being able to make a claim and then actually get that money from the Government.

    Exactly.

    If your bank collapses, expect delays. And can you be sure you'll have continuous uniterrputed trouble free access to your money, during the your bank's collapse ?
    mossy2103 wrote: »
    As well as the issues around those people who were unfortunate enough to have their salaries paid into that bank, as well as the businesses who had their accounts there 9and are now no longer able to pay their employees as they cannot access their funds).

    Spot on. Expect people to revert to good old cash. I mean the cash in your pocket.

    Because if your bank collapses, for a while, all you will have is the cash in your pocket.
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    Nick1966Nick1966 Posts: 15,742
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    clinch wrote: »
    The savings are guaranteed.

    I know.

    But what if you wake up when morning to find your bank had collapsed overnight. Can you guarantee online access to your bank account ?
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    mossy2103mossy2103 Posts: 84,314
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    At some point, even hard cash will run out as failed banks will not be issuing it from their branches or cash machines. And there will not be enough cash in circulation to meet the additional demand placed upon the system when cheques cannot be drawn and when electronic payments cease.
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    Nick1966Nick1966 Posts: 15,742
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    mossy2103 wrote: »
    Yes of course, your direct debits will still get processed, you will still get your salary paid into that bank, your mortgage payment will get processed, you will still be able to pay by a cheque drawn on that bank, you will still be able to withdraw small sums from cashpoint machines in order to pay the weekly shopping bill ....
    .

    In practical terms, how will all this work when your bank has just collapsed and has stopped trading ?
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    mossy2103mossy2103 Posts: 84,314
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    Nick1966 wrote: »
    In practical terms, how will all this work when your bank has just collapsed and has stopped trading ?
    That's just it - it won't work, leaving hundreds of thousands of people with no means to transact. it will all grind to a halt, as I suggested in the last line of my post, reproduced here:

    Or maybe not on all counts. Maybe there will be hundreds of thousands of people with no access to any cash at all, and no means to pay any automated bill.


    And that will have knock-on effects on other traders and businesses, and other banks as incoming funds dry up.
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    Nick1966Nick1966 Posts: 15,742
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    mossy2103 wrote: »
    At some point, even hard cash will run out as failed banks will not be issuing it from their branches or cash machines.

    I'm willing to guess the government have highly secret emergency plans to deal with this.

    For starters, a minister will declare a State of Emergency under the Civil Contingencies Act 2004. This will not require consultation with parliament.
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    Nick1966Nick1966 Posts: 15,742
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    mossy2103 wrote: »
    That's just it - it won't work, it will all grind to a halt, as I suggested in the last line of my post, reproduced here:

    Or maybe not on all counts. Maybe there will be hundreds of thousands of people with no access to any cash at all, and no means to pay any automated bill.

    Whoops. :o

    And at this point, the government declares a state of emergency and steps in. They will have unlimited powers and will not need to consult parliament or the public.
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    mossy2103mossy2103 Posts: 84,314
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    Nick1966 wrote: »
    I'm willing to guess the government have highly secret emergency plans to deal with this.

    For starters, a minister will declare a State of Emergency under the Civil Contingencies Act 2004. This will not require consultation with parliament.

    Yes, it would not be a pretty sight. And pretty uncomfortable for everyone (except the bankers of course)
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    Nick1966Nick1966 Posts: 15,742
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    mossy2103 wrote: »
    Yes, it would not be a pretty sight.

    Exactly.

    The Bank of England have contingency plans for a euro collapse. But won't say what they are. Expect the government to have similar plans.

    After all, with multiple banking failures, we would still expect the lights to work, running drinking water and there be some food in the shops.
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    mossy2103mossy2103 Posts: 84,314
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    Nick1966 wrote: »
    Whoops. :o
    No problem.
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    Nick1966Nick1966 Posts: 15,742
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    mossy2103 wrote: »
    No problem.

    On Friday, watched Newsnight and the Robert Peston programme on the Euro meltdown. I really wish I hadn't.

    Nobody really knows just awful this is going to be.
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    1TrueNorth1TrueNorth Posts: 4,001
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    Federal banking system with federal political oversight is whats needed.
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    MTUK1MTUK1 Posts: 20,077
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    1TrueNorth wrote: »
    Federal banking system with federal political oversight is whats needed.

    Thanks for that Angela Merkel. :rolleyes:
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    1TrueNorth1TrueNorth Posts: 4,001
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    MTUK1 wrote: »
    Thanks for that Angela Merkel. :rolleyes:

    Oh grow up man.
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    MARTYM8MARTYM8 Posts: 44,710
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    We have had a banking crisis for 5 years - most European banks (including some UK ones) are effectively insolvent and have only survived due to government and taxpayer backed stimuluses and bailouts and other mechanisms such as quantitative easing.

    Not sure what the outcome will be - but we cannot carry on drifting in a permanent state of crisis.

    No doubt the usual solution will apply - go for more stimulus and leave our grandkids to pick up the bill!
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