But he is arguing that North Korean scientists developed the nuclear bomb without any knowlege from the outside world. My argument is that North Korean scientists are probably considerabally more aware of what is going on in the oustide world than ordinary citizens and as such are probably more aware of the international situation.
But he is arguing that North Korean scientists developed the nuclear bomb without any knowlege from the outside world. My argument is that North Korean scientists are probably considerabally more aware of what is going on in the oustide world than ordinary citizens and as such are probably more aware of the international situation.
Yes and I am saying that is pure conjecture.
Like I say the physics of nuclear bombs is trivial. The actual problem is engineering, and that information isn't in text books, but it is achievable, just like Russia managed 60 years ago, if you devote your best engineers to it.
Like I say the physics of nuclear bombs is trivial. The actual problem is engineering, and that information isn't in text books, but it is achievable, just like Russia managed 60 years ago, if you devote your best engineers to it.
Since the average N.Korean University student has more knowlege of the outside world than the average North Korean. then it is very likely that the average North Korean scientist has knowlege of the outside world.
I'm not disagreeing with you - not even the most seasoned DPRK watcher (and I was actually booked on a trip last year, but had to cancel at the last minute) can really know what they're up to. I tend not to lose sleep over it, as so much of the bluster is purely for domestic consumption. Reports this morning were of buses being covered with camouflage netting!
True but all you need is another silly provocation like sinking another ship or shelling another island and for that to escalate. You also have a very difficult issue what to do if escalation starts. There's a strong logic to escalate in a major way in case the issue gets worse - you want to hit N Korean artillery targetting Seoul early if you are S Korea, and, if things start going badly, the North may want to use it rather than lose it.
Similar problem with the bomb, and the long range missile. If N Korea says its about to attack with nukes, do you just let them rtect and fuel the next missile and hope they don't mean what they say? It gets even worse when they actually have the ability to reach US cities - do you rely on them not doing what they say, or on the less than perfect probablility that the US missiles in Alaska can kill the incoming missile? Or do you blow every missile you can find up?
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But he is arguing that North Korean scientists developed the nuclear bomb without any knowlege from the outside world. My argument is that North Korean scientists are probably considerabally more aware of what is going on in the oustide world than ordinary citizens and as such are probably more aware of the international situation.
Yes and I am saying that is pure conjecture.
Like I say the physics of nuclear bombs is trivial. The actual problem is engineering, and that information isn't in text books, but it is achievable, just like Russia managed 60 years ago, if you devote your best engineers to it.
Since the average N.Korean University student has more knowlege of the outside world than the average North Korean. then it is very likely that the average North Korean scientist has knowlege of the outside world.
True but all you need is another silly provocation like sinking another ship or shelling another island and for that to escalate. You also have a very difficult issue what to do if escalation starts. There's a strong logic to escalate in a major way in case the issue gets worse - you want to hit N Korean artillery targetting Seoul early if you are S Korea, and, if things start going badly, the North may want to use it rather than lose it.
Similar problem with the bomb, and the long range missile. If N Korea says its about to attack with nukes, do you just let them rtect and fuel the next missile and hope they don't mean what they say? It gets even worse when they actually have the ability to reach US cities - do you rely on them not doing what they say, or on the less than perfect probablility that the US missiles in Alaska can kill the incoming missile? Or do you blow every missile you can find up?