what happens to Greece if they default and leave the Euro?

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  • tysonstormtysonstorm Posts: 24,609
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    Relugus wrote: »
    Apparently alot of the Golden Dawn's voters are policemen. That's a pretty powerful and potentially dangerous power base.

    Merkel, while demanding austerity, also demanded that Greece continue its absurd millitary spending, which basically means she demanded Greece give German defence contractors welfare handouts while demanding the poor be stripped of theirs.

    Hank Paulson
    Tim Geithner
    Mario Draghi
    Mario Monti
    Lucas Papademos

    All these men pretended or pretend to work for taxpayers but in fact work for Goldman Sachs. It should be noted that Draghi, along with King and Bernanke, has been handing out welfare to bankers like candy, while preaching austerity to the rest of us.

    Remember Corporate Welfare not Social Welfare is necessary. ;)

    Or as it's known to Tories: Screw the poor! :(
  • rusty123rusty123 Posts: 22,872
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    Parthenon wrote: »
    Have to say this thread has been quite eye-opening as I didn't know much about the behaviour of the Greek politicians in the run up to this mess.

    It seems certain that it would be the best thing for the Greek people if the country defaulted. Bad for the EU (mainly Germany/France) but it's probably time the Euro was abandoned to save things getting even worse.

    The Greek people suffer either way. There was an interesting program on the telly last night with Portillo doing the rounds of Greece and Germany that gave quite a good insight into the problem.
    One thing it demonstrated is that we in this country are living with our heads in the sand when we start kicking up a stink about cuts and changes to pension rights etc.
    We can bleat on about it not being fair and those suffering aren't the ones who caused the problem till the weather turns pink. It doesn't alter the situation.
  • wallsterwallster Posts: 17,609
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    I hope this is the end of the E.U.

    Unlikely, but it is the end of Greece.
  • Nick1966Nick1966 Posts: 15,742
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    Doc Shmok wrote: »
    How do we get a society that is not dependent on banks? No business can operate these days without being owned by the bank, most houses are owned by the banks, most cars are owned by the bank.

    We are dependent on banks for one reason alone.

    Banks get money for us.
  • What name??What name?? Posts: 26,623
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    C19th Fox wrote: »
    What about the potential risk of ejection from the EU that exit from the Eurozone could potentially mean? That would surely be a bad thing as the tourist market would be hit even with a much devalued currency.
    It would make holidaying in Greece more competitive compared to it's main rivals as tourists in Euro and £ money would go further in Greece then. That might attract more visitors although of course the polticial instability and neo-nazi's marching around might put many others off...

    And today we have an article advising tourists to check their Euro's are not those issued by Greece or to get rid of them if you have them stocked, and another about what happens if Greece leaves the Euro during your hols.
  • wallsterwallster Posts: 17,609
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    It would make holidaying in Greece more competitive compared to it's main rivals as tourists in Euro and £ money would go further in Greece then. That might attract more visitors although of course the polticial instability and neo-nazi's marching around might put many others off...

    And today we have an article advising tourists to check their Euro's are not those issued by Greece or to get rid of them if you have them stocked, and another about what happens if Greece leaves the Euro during your hols.

    Not wise to go on holiday to Greece this year. If they are forced out of the Euro, many Greek businesses, including those in the tourist trade, may go under and that could include hoteliers.
  • grassmarketgrassmarket Posts: 33,010
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    C19th Fox wrote: »
    Have you ever been to Greece?

    If you had you would know that very few roads are maintained up to European or even British standards. The same applies to airports, and other infrastructure with the possible exception of Athens.

    Indeed they are not. However, they borrowed the money on the promise that they would be.
  • grassmarketgrassmarket Posts: 33,010
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    C19th Fox wrote: »
    That is not in indication of corruption. It is an indication of a mass of red tape - entirely different things.

    I say it again. If Greece has corrupt politicians, ineffective bureaucrats and business-stifling regulations, it is entirely the fault of the Greek people. Nobody else can do anything to help them if they are not willing to do it themselves. That's what being a democracy means, it entails responsibilities, not just getting free stuff.
  • grassmarketgrassmarket Posts: 33,010
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    mRebel wrote: »
    The irresponsible lenders, banks of the Eurozone, UK and US, have had more money lent to them, by the ECB. A trillion euros, no less, at 1% interest, with no conditions attached, so expect bankers pay to rocket. And the amount lent to banks far exceeds that lent to Greece.
    A slight double standard, don't you think?

    I agree that the banks should not be bailed out, but the "irresponsibility" you speak of consisted entirely in doing what politicians asked them to do.
  • grassmarketgrassmarket Posts: 33,010
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    mRebel wrote: »
    What's being done isn't practical, forcing Greece into an endless decline. The proposals of Syriza are practical, and fairer.

    It's not remotely fair to nourish people in their delusions. They simply will not be allowed to default and remain unpunished, as they pretend. Their proposals are not practical because nobody is going to give them any money to spend, and there is no way they can raise it in taxation. Implementing their programme would result in pain far worse than is being presently suffered.
  • grassmarketgrassmarket Posts: 33,010
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    mRebel wrote: »
    Then how come banks didn't predict it, and stop ending them money many years ago?

    Because European banks are run by the same Europhile managerial class as European politicians are drawn from. This is why a Greek default would be so damaging to French and German banks, and less so to British ones. The British banks had the sense to draw back.
  • paulschapmanpaulschapman Posts: 35,536
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    mRebel wrote: »
    Then how come banks didn't predict it, and stop ending them money many years ago?

    There are treaty obligations within the Eurozone which require money to move from German to Greek banks

    see http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18058270
    Under this system, called Target2, one consequence of businesses and households taking their money out of the bank accounts of the deficit countries, such as Greece, Italy and Spain, is that the German central bank ends up lending vast sums to the central banks of those deficit countries.

    Here is a slightly simplified account of how this works: when someone takes 100 euros from a Greek bank and transfers it to the perceived safety of a German bank (which has been happening quite a lot), that Greek bank gets the 100 euros from the Greek central bank, which in turn borrows the money from the Bundesbank.

    As of March of this year, the German central bank had 644bn euros of claims on other central banks, equivalent to a quarter of German GDP. These are euros owed to the Bundesbank by the central banks of the economies where there has been the greatest capital flight, names those of Greece, Italy and Spain.
  • mad_dudemad_dude Posts: 10,670
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    Some financial journalist on BBC news now just said that if the Euros have Y in their serial number to change them as they are greek euro's and may become worthless.
  • AnnsyreAnnsyre Posts: 109,504
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    mad_dude wrote: »
    Some financial journalist on BBC news now just said that if the Euros have Y in their serial number to change them as they are greek euro's and may become worthless.

    It's precisely this sort of remark that incites a panic.:)
  • paulschapmanpaulschapman Posts: 35,536
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    Annsyre wrote: »
    It's precisely this sort of remark that incites a panic.:)

    Which for reasons pointed above is going to make life really uncomfortable for German banks.
  • What name??What name?? Posts: 26,623
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    Annsyre wrote: »
    It's precisely this sort of remark that incites a panic.:)

    What to get rid of our Greek euros after your holidays? I doubt it.
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 18,071
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    Annsyre wrote: »
    It's precisely this sort of remark that incites a panic.:)

    Well that's the intention. In trying to justify their own position they create the situation.

    The reality will be as usual between extreme doom and extreme optimism.

    Since the BBC has 24 hours coverage they try to find sensational sh|t everywhere.
  • What name??What name?? Posts: 26,623
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    Doc Shmok wrote: »
    between extreme doom and extreme optimism.

    Since the BBC has 24 hours coverage they try to find sensational sh|t everywhere.

    And yet it is obvious that if Greece leaves the euro, which is quite likely, they will lose the right to print euro's so it is a bit silly hording Greek notes. This is just common sense. It is also likely that there will be a period when you can swap them to protect consumers but why hold them unnecessarily in the circumstances?
  • Nick1966Nick1966 Posts: 15,742
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    The British banks had the sense to draw back.

    and lend to the Irish instead. Great move.

    And thanks, Mr Osborne for commiting British taxpayers money to the Irish government.
  • jmclaughjmclaugh Posts: 63,997
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    Nick1966 wrote: »
    and lend to the Irish instead. Great move.

    And thanks, Mr Osborne for commiting British taxpayers money to the Irish government.

    Well it seems to have been a much better move than lending it to Greece. The banks that did that have already taken an almighty hit.
  • Nick1966Nick1966 Posts: 15,742
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    And yet it is obvious that if Greece leaves the euro, which is quite likely, they will lose the right to print euro's so it is a bit silly hording Greek notes. This is just common sense. It is also likely that there will be a period when you can swap them to protect consumers but why hold them unnecessarily in the circumstances?


    It makes not a jot of difference where your euro notes have been printed.

    It's where you are at the time of the announcement which counts.

    Because when the Greek government announces they are adopting a new currency, you can expect all banks and cash points to close within the hour. And to stay close for a several days, while an initial conversion to the new currency takes place.

    All euro notes circulating in Greece will then stay in Greece. There wil be border checks to stop the euro note currency leaks. Financially, Greece will be sealed off for a few days. During this time, euro notes within Greece will be marked. Once marked they will then be circulated as Drachma.

    Expect the new Drachma to depcreciate by 50%. So your €1000 Greek bank account convert to 1000 dracha. 1000 drachma now only buys €500. Overnight.
  • Nick1966Nick1966 Posts: 15,742
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    jmclaugh wrote: »
    Well it seems to have been a much better move than lending it to Greece.

    Possibly. And the alternative ? Let Ireland go to the wall ?
  • allaortaallaorta Posts: 19,050
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    Nick1966 wrote: »
    and lend to the Irish instead. Great move.

    And thanks, Mr Osborne for commiting British taxpayers money to the Irish government.

    There were sound motives for us lending to Ireland as well you know.
  • jmclaughjmclaugh Posts: 63,997
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    Nick1966 wrote: »
    Possibly. And the alternative ? Let Ireland go to the wall ?

    It isn't possibly it is definitely as Ireland is not now a serious problem. That's is always an alternative but not as yet for the Eurozone.
  • AnnsyreAnnsyre Posts: 109,504
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    Nick1966 wrote: »
    and lend to the Irish instead. Great move.

    And thanks, Mr Osborne for commiting British taxpayers money to the Irish government.

    It was a LOAN not a gift. And will be paid back with interest.
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