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How long will Corbyn last as Labour leader?

MartinPMartinP Posts: 31,358
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With half the shadow cabinet resigning and the party deeply split how long will Corbyn last as leader?

I think he will be leader for just over 1 year before his failure as leader causes a challenge.

How long will Corbyn last as Labour leader? 167 votes

less than 1 year
17% 30 votes
1-2 years
34% 58 votes
2-4 years
14% 25 votes
until at least 2020
32% 54 votes
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    MartinPMartinP Posts: 31,358
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    A poll may be along shortly - ah yes here it is :)
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    CLL DodgeCLL Dodge Posts: 115,873
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    Labour never ditched Milliband even though they knew as soon as he was chosen that they'd lose the next election.

    So we'll be back here again in 5 years.
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    AnnsyreAnnsyre Posts: 109,504
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    MartinP wrote: »
    With half the shadow cabinet resigning and the party deeply split how long will Corbyn last as leader?

    I think he will be leader for just over 1 year before his failure as leader causes a challenge.

    For two Labour Party Conferences is my guess with a vote of no confidence at the second one.
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    David TeeDavid Tee Posts: 22,833
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    I don't think the issue is Corbyn, although his weaknesses will become transparently obvious very, very quickly.

    The problem is that's he's just a figurehead, someone who encapsulates long lost values. The real winners of this election have been those who wanted Labour to return to its roots. Specifically, policies, a way of thinking and a political culture that were abandoned decades ago.

    They control the destiny of the party now. They'll cling to every inch of the ground they've gained. They will brush aside the polls, shrug off all criticism as bias and predictable sneering and lay siege to Social Media.

    They will decide whether Corbyn goes. The only relevant question is: is there anyone else like him who, in their eyes, could do a better job?

    My guess is that there isn't, so 2020 it is.
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    MeepersMeepers Posts: 5,502
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    About 3 years, when Osbourne is Tory leader and doing well, and Labour polling about 25% the prospect of electoral annihilation will do for him. The whole thing is IDS and the Tory leadership all over again
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    LostFoolLostFool Posts: 90,662
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    He will be 71 in 2020. 76 in 2025 if he survives a full Parliament. He clearly doesn't believe in early retirement and giving younger people a chance in the workplace.
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    ustarionustarion Posts: 20,322
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    When Labour's poll ratings are in the gutter, he, himself, will step down. He won't even need to be forced out.
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    andyknandykn Posts: 66,849
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    Meepers wrote: »
    About 3 years, when Osbourne is Tory leader and doing well, and Labour polling about 25% the prospect of electoral annihilation will do for him. The whole thing is IDS and the Tory leadership all over again

    That's what the Tories fear, the unknown unknown; they didn't fear any of the other three but do fear Corbyn being ousted before the next election and being replaced with a charismatic leader not yet to the fore.
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    jcafcwjcafcw Posts: 11,282
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    As far as threads go, and attacking Corbyn, this really is scraping the bottom of the barrel.

    Sad.
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    TomWhittonTomWhitton Posts: 1,465
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    Why make predictions? I have no idea and neither does anyone else.
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    MeepersMeepers Posts: 5,502
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    jcafcw wrote: »
    As far as threads go, and attacking Corbyn, this really is scraping the bottom of the barrel.

    Sad.
    Given large swathes of Labour are already refusing to serve Corbyn, it seems a fair question
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    zx50zx50 Posts: 91,272
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    I've not seen what he's like at taking Cameron on in Prime Minister's Questions, so I can't even guess. I need to see what his responses are, how confident he is when taking someone on and if he can back members of the Conservatives into a corner before I can take a guess on this.
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    drillbitdrillbit Posts: 1,687
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    he'll be 71 come next election, too old for an ageist society me thinks
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    valdvald Posts: 46,057
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    LostFool wrote: »
    He will be 71 in 2020. 76 in 2025 if he survives a full Parliament. He clearly doesn't believe in early retirement and giving younger people a chance in the workplace.

    Nor did Winston Churchill.....and that worked out ok.:kitty:
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    zx50zx50 Posts: 91,272
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    andykn wrote: »
    That's what the Tories fear, the unknown unknown; they didn't fear any of the other three but do fear Corbyn being ousted before the next election and being replaced with a charismatic leader not yet to the fore.

    Yep, it could very well be the reason why the right-wing press were always criticising him for. Corbyn might surprise people though.
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    InspirationInspiration Posts: 62,706
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    With Tom Watson waiting in the wings.. not long.
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    CaxtonCaxton Posts: 28,881
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    He could last some time. When one looks at Brown and Miliband they were retained as leader even though they did not exactly shine or appeal to attract voters from anyone other than the Party faithful.

    Corbyn,, no doubt, will be considered the best thing since sliced bread but I imagine his appeal to attract more voters and therefore gain actual seats outside Labour heartlands will be negligible.
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    gummy mummygummy mummy Posts: 26,600
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    LostFool wrote: »
    He will be 71 in 2020. 76 in 2025 if he survives a full Parliament. He clearly doesn't believe in early retirement and giving younger people a chance in the workplace.

    Well not naming any MP's by name I will point out that he isn't the only MP who didn't /doesn't agree with early retirement and giving younger people a chance in the workplace ;-)
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    jassijassi Posts: 7,895
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    Meepers wrote: »
    Given large swathes of Labour are already refusing to serve Corbyn, it seems a fair question

    A number of disaffected front-benchers can hardly be called a swathe :D
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    CaxtonCaxton Posts: 28,881
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    Depends where Corbyn's support is coming from as to his success. If it is coming from traditional Labour constituencies then it will make little or no difference, he needs to attract people from the marginal, but looking at those who do not want to serve on the front bench under his leadership it appears that most support for him will not arrive from that direction, but mainly from the safe Labour seats.

    There was a poll on TV I saw this morning that indicated that voters would be less likely to vote Labour under Corbyn.
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    ustarionustarion Posts: 20,322
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    Caxton wrote: »
    There was a poll on TV I saw this morning that indicated that voters would be less likely to vote Labour under Corbyn.

    The polls are about to get A LOT worse for Labour.
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    Doctor_WibbleDoctor_Wibble Posts: 26,580
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    All things being equal I don't see any reason that he couldn't last until 2020 but that's rather unlikely because of all those who want him to do the difficult shake-up bit before swanning in like it was all their doing and how they were behind him all the way, after all how else do you stab someone in the back...
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    zx50zx50 Posts: 91,272
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    With Tom Watson waiting in the wings.. not long.

    I was impressed by Tom's speech. I think Tom might do well when up against Cameron. Tom's pretty sharp.
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    MesostimMesostim Posts: 52,864
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    He'll last longer than some people's flounces I imagine.
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    deptfordbakerdeptfordbaker Posts: 22,368
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    It's very hard to get rid of a Labour leader if they don't want to go.

    Plus he has the biggest mandate ever. Any attempt by 'New Labour' to depose him will start a civil war in the party. None of his supporters expect to really win, they are more interested in remaking the Labour party back in to a real party of the left.
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