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UKIP - how well will they do in the GE?
Poppy99_Poppy
Posts: 2,255 Forum Member
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I went to a Xmas lunch the other day and a few seats away from me I heard 4 people having a conversation about UKIP. Two of them were Labour supporters (very vocal about it in the past). Surprisingly all 4 were saying they were going to vote UKIP. Two of them cited the lack of controlled immigration as the reason. To say I was shocked was an understatement - makes me think that, whilst UKIP are not going to win the election, they are going to going to give the other parties a wake up call. Is that your perception?
For the first time in all the years I have been able to vote I have absolutely no idea who I am going to vote for. And, I am ashamed to say I might bottle it and not vote at all. Any one feel the same?
For the first time in all the years I have been able to vote I have absolutely no idea who I am going to vote for. And, I am ashamed to say I might bottle it and not vote at all. Any one feel the same?
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Extensive polling and analysis has been done on UKIP supporters and is been noted that they have very low potential amongst the following groups:
- Pro Europeans (obviously)
- Ethnic minorities
- University educated
In general they also suffer badly amongst
- People under 25
- Above average income earners/white collar employees.
- People with socially liberal views.
Obviously there's a lot of overlap with the above held but they still make up an extremely high percentage of all voters. ukip may find that the pond they're fishing isn't as big as they hoped.
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Their appeal is quite widespread and many will vote for them because they're not the other three carbon-copies of each other, all of which are pro-EU, anti-English and fearful of democracy.
I understand where you are coming from. I have voted for the other main parties in the past much to my regret. Many others I know are in the same boat.
I suggest you go to the UKIP website, check out the policies, subscribe to the youtube channel which is very good. If possible try and find out who is standing in your area next May and see if you can go to your nearest campaign office.
Also an important note for you in that UKIP will have standing more people from working class backgrounds next May than all the other parties put together.
How well will UKIP do? No idea...it's exciting isn't it? The polls conveniently don't paint the whole picture in terms of support around the country.
Remember to keep checking because UKIP policies can change VERY quickly
Just for once, I hope you are right.
Just go by their website and their couple of pages on policies for people and what we stand for. Full of wonderful things they will do if elected. Oh and don't ask how they will do them or if they have costed their polices and had the figures checked by the OBR. If you intend on voting UKIP you should believe in UKIP's promises.
And while UKIP in the European parliament has proudly formed a blocked with such wonderfuly enlighted political parties from around Europe as one formed by white supermicists wearing nazi insignas. And UKIP itself has attracted a lot of former BNP voters. You should remember that UKIP is in no way itself racist and the people who vote for a political party or the company the political party keeps or the odd outbursts by some of its candidates or Farages own alleged school boy antics are no reflection on the party or what it believes, they are just guilt by association and making a fuss about nothing.
UKIP are the only party that don't let former BNP members join. But the Labour party appear to have one or two who have joined in recent years. I wonder if the MSM will run with that story?
Yes I believe Nigel was a socialist which is why he was singing Hitler Youth songs. But then he saw the error of his ways.....
Why don't you tell us that UKIP would have closed more mines down futher detracting the fact Labour closed many more than Thatcher did. Or the gap between the rich and poor didn't increase under the last Labour government?
But ah......let me guess your not Labour? Your Green? So your Labour then, with a bit more wind power.
Oh labour is not burying its head in the sand, its burying its whole self by the sounds of this article... from Labour itself:
http://labourlist.org/2014/01/labour-will-act-on-immigration-heres-how/
If you have a read at it, it sounds as if it's now trying to blame the failings of its own policies on other parties! One of the best bits of it is this:
"Labour got some things wrong on immigration in Government. For example we should have had transitional controls for Eastern Europe in 2004 and we should have looked more at the impact on low-skilled jobs and pay. So we have listened and learned, while unfortunately the Tories and Lib Dems Government just aren’t learning enough of those lessons."
Quite incredible that the Labour 'policy' of the time was to shout down as racist, anybody who dared raise a concern about its immigration policies... now its all ears because it's out of Office.
I think one of the problems for both main parties is that they are not taking ukip seriously. You hear a lot of playground chants, but very little else by way of counter argument. As a result of widespread disenchantment with the main parties, many votes will be migrating to ukip next May.
I'm not sure the first bit is completely true, but assuming it is, wouldn't it be commendable for a party to learn by its past mistakes?
personally i'd say that once the serious campaigning begins is when it starts to get dangerous for UKIP as they just do not have the depth needed to deal with the level of coverage a GE campaign will have
I watched the live coverage through the night at this years EU elections and some of their spokespeople were scarily bad and verging on incompetent in the role they were representing
same again with the UKIP guy fielded after the Scottish independence referendum
yes there is a potential to gain ground as they push some of the right buttons with large parts of the electorate , but when it comes down to the breadth of issues dealt with in a GE campaign I think they will struggle big-time
Whats laughable is Labour apologising as if it makes everything all right.....they ask for resignations left, right and centre on many in comparison trivial issues....and yet not one person was held accountable for changing our country forever and putting a massive strain on our public services by not planning for the mass influx that happened......and all they can do is apologise.....and anyone who thinks that makes everything alright just doesn't get how it has affected housing, pay and public services in this country and not one resignation or sacking over it ......quite amazing really when you think about it.....and I am also saying btw there should be resignations sacking for the coalition not getting on top of the situation (although to a lesser degree) too!
based on what?
http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/uk-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=1195292
and here is some analysis of their potential seat chances:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/oct/14/ukip-30-seats-2015-general-election
So who exactly do you think should resign or be sacked? It's not as though Blair and Brown are still in leadership roles!
The bookies 'reckon' no such thing. People who are betting are voting with their bets, and the odds reflect that.
If I put in a £million bet on them to get no seats the odds would soon change. Bookies' odds are basically just one huge opinion poll, where the question is who people think will win rather than who will individuals vote for.
I don't think they won in Rochester by as much as they hoped the and Conservatives haven't been damaged by it as much as Farage and Co hoped/expected
You do know what the UK in their name means, don't you?