Confusing statistic

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  Ethel_Fred Posts: 34,127

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  27/01/15 - 08:23 #2

  Don't know what is confusing - its 16%

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  TrollHunter Posts: 12,496

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  27/01/15 - 09:47 #3

  JELLIES0 wrote: »

  I'm confused !
  
  Apparently some everyday drugs increase the chance of getting alzheimer's by 60%
  
  Do they mean that (for example) a 10% chance increases to 16% or a 10% chance increases to 70% ?

  
  10 + 60% (6) = 16
  10 + 600% (60) = 70

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  Flufan Posts: 2,544

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  27/01/15 - 10:38 #4

  I can see how it could easily be confusing. If the price of something costing 10p was increased by 60p, you'd just add it and get 70p.
  
  The term for an increase from 10% to 70%, however, is a 60 percentage points increase.

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  shankly123 Posts: 598

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  27/01/15 - 12:03 #5

  It's impossible to say without seeing how the figure was arrived at. Misunderstanding of statistics a huge problem when certain newspapers sensationalise research papers.
  
  For example, if the incidence of a condition is 1 in half a million, but a drug increases the incidence to 2 in half a million, it's still pretty unlikely that you'll contract the condition, but headlines will scream 'X doubles the risk of catching y' - it's technically true, but not worth worrying about.
  
  The moral isn't 'don't believe what you read', more a case of 'make sure you understand what you read'

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  walterwhite Posts: 56,926

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  27/01/15 - 13:28 #6

  shankly123 wrote: »

  It's impossible to say without seeing how the figure was arrived at. Misunderstanding of statistics a huge problem when certain newspapers sensationalise research papers.
  
  For example, if the incidence of a condition is 1 in half a million, but a drug increases the incidence to 2 in half a million, it's still pretty unlikely that you'll contract the condition, but headlines will scream 'X doubles the risk of catching y' - it's technically true, but not worth worrying about.
  
  The moral isn't 'don't believe what you read', more a case of 'make sure you understand what you read'

  
  Exactly. 60% more chance of getting something that is not likely is still not likely.

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  Bex_123 Posts: 10,783

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  27/01/15 - 13:32 #7

  JELLIES0 wrote: »

  I'm confused !
  
  Apparently some everyday drugs increase the chance of getting alzheimer's by 60%
  
  Do they mean that (for example) a 10% chance increases to 16% or a 10% chance increases to 70% ?

  
  Could you show us what you are referring to? Sounds like your typical badly explained and misunderstood statistic in a newspaper.
  
  But it would be 16%.

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