Yes, they only seem to like trending upwards during election campaigns. So don't get too concerned it will be back up at the next campaign. I gather this starts in April.
UKIP support increases by 50 per cent in a day and LD support halves compared to ICM - or maybe nothing has changed and all we are getting are varying pollster methodologies rather than actual changes in voting patterns!
Yes, they only seem to like trending upwards during election campaigns. So don't get too concerned it will be back up at the next campaign. I gather this starts in April.
The problem for UKIP is that they aren't part of a lot of the day to day political coverage. Most UK political stories involve the government and the official opposition and there's isn't much room for other opinions.
Take yesterday for example: obviously the focus is on the Tories, however the news also reported Labour's response. The fact that the Lib Dems are in government means they also get a mention "Lib Dem ministers to be reshuffled soon". UKIP is completely absent. This pattern is repeated for most major political news stories, UKIP are only given airtime if the story is about Europe or immigration or obviously anything to do with the party itself.
So it's only natural that it's support will slip back whilst it's being denied the oxygen of publicity. Once conference season, election campaign, arguments about Europe/immigration roll back round they will pick up.
The problem for UKIP is that they aren't part of a lot of the day to day political coverage. Most UK political stories involve the government and the official opposition and there's isn't much room for other opinions.
Take yesterday for example: obviously the focus is on the Tories, however the news also reported Labour's response. The fact that the Lib Dems are in government means they also get a mention "Lib Dem ministers to be reshuffled soon". UKIP is completely absent. This pattern is repeated for most major political news stories, UKIP are only given airtime if the story is about Europe or immigration or obviously anything to do with the party itself.
So it's only natural that it's support will slip back whilst it's being denied the oxygen of publicity. Once conference season, election campaign, arguments about Europe/immigration roll back round they will pick up.
If UKIP was open abut its policies and had spokesmen covering every topic then they might be talked about.
If UKIP was open abut its policies and had spokesmen covering every topic then they might be talked about.
I think you'd be surprised by how many responses a party like UKIP releases. A quick look on their website shows a reply to all of the main issues of yesterday (including, amusingly, an attack on the number of privately educated Tory ministers). I expect the Greens and Nationalist do the same. The issue is that the mainstream media simply doesn't have the time to include them unless they are deemed especially 'newsworthy'.
Now that UKIP is officially a major party, it's views are guaranteed to get a lot of coverage in the 2015 general election. The question is whether they are able to remain part of the Tory v Labour, Cameron v Miliband narrative that the campaign will almost certainly descend into.
One thing to consider is procrastination of the public.
Because people know the GE is in May2015 there is no need to consider it at the moment.
If we were in a normal situation where the government could call an election at any time then there would be a buzz in the air and consideration of the issues, such as the NHS.
As we enter into December and the New Year might everything change with regards polls as people start to think about it?
Comments
Most of them would, double standards do not exist in the eyes of the left-wing voters. ;-)
Con 34; Lab 38; LD 6; UKIP 13
Dreadful for Lib Dems.
They will do better than that next year because of the way they fight and hang onto their seats
Looking at the numbers for yesterday, Labour is 45% in London and the North but still at 30% in the south
UKIP support increases by 50 per cent in a day and LD support halves compared to ICM - or maybe nothing has changed and all we are getting are varying pollster methodologies rather than actual changes in voting patterns!
No idea.^_^
It will be interesting to see their policies.
I predict a Labour majority of 550.
On the back of all that you have been posting over many months, I have to query whether that is a serious post or not.
Labour have a small lead I would guess, finger to the wind style...
I don't believe you really think that.... if you do then explain why your position has shifted.
I was surprised as well
The problem for UKIP is that they aren't part of a lot of the day to day political coverage. Most UK political stories involve the government and the official opposition and there's isn't much room for other opinions.
Take yesterday for example: obviously the focus is on the Tories, however the news also reported Labour's response. The fact that the Lib Dems are in government means they also get a mention "Lib Dem ministers to be reshuffled soon". UKIP is completely absent. This pattern is repeated for most major political news stories, UKIP are only given airtime if the story is about Europe or immigration or obviously anything to do with the party itself.
So it's only natural that it's support will slip back whilst it's being denied the oxygen of publicity. Once conference season, election campaign, arguments about Europe/immigration roll back round they will pick up.
I think you'd be surprised by how many responses a party like UKIP releases. A quick look on their website shows a reply to all of the main issues of yesterday (including, amusingly, an attack on the number of privately educated Tory ministers). I expect the Greens and Nationalist do the same. The issue is that the mainstream media simply doesn't have the time to include them unless they are deemed especially 'newsworthy'.
Now that UKIP is officially a major party, it's views are guaranteed to get a lot of coverage in the 2015 general election. The question is whether they are able to remain part of the Tory v Labour, Cameron v Miliband narrative that the campaign will almost certainly descend into.
They're not stupid, they'd rather lose a few election than ensure a permanent end to Tory majority government.
Because people know the GE is in May2015 there is no need to consider it at the moment.
If we were in a normal situation where the government could call an election at any time then there would be a buzz in the air and consideration of the issues, such as the NHS.
As we enter into December and the New Year might everything change with regards polls as people start to think about it?
: CON 33%, LAB 36%, LD 9%, UKIP 13%
Surely not the very same party and its supporters who are whinging about the current status quo.:D
And he hasn't come back to explain his position...
I hope that's a mistype, Labour aren't going to win seats like Weston super Mare. ;-)
Jol had just come out with this pearler:
It was so much the complete polar opposite of anything else he's ever said, I thought I'd respond with a similar degree of self-parody.