why were the polls "wrong"

Keiō LineKeiō Line Posts: 12,979
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"wrong" in quotes because they may have reflected the voting intentions as they were .
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  • Nigel GoodwinNigel Goodwin Posts: 58,328
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    Because polls are crap!.
  • bspacebspace Posts: 14,303
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    Where they really all that wrong, I haven't seen a breakdown of votes just in England but only for the whole of the UK but even there you can see that in England there wasn't much between Lab and Con. Where the polls falled was that they didn't show what the effects of a collpse of Lib votes and the swing of Lib/Lab working class votes to UKIP would be. ie gains for the Tories. In many/most English seats Labour gained vote share.
  • elliecatelliecat Posts: 9,890
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    Because of something called the "Shy Tory factor", they talked about it last night and in the papers today. People who vote Conservative tend not say and it's no wonder when they get abuse thrown at them.
  • jojoenojojoeno Posts: 1,842
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    Because LibDem voters left them in droves and voted Tory, they are a useless spineless bunch and have landed us all in a Tory hellhole.
  • Sky_GuySky_Guy Posts: 6,859
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    There are obviously a lot of people afraid to say they vote Tory.
  • robo2robo2 Posts: 1,470
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    qualatative research always has some margin of error

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/02/03/margin-of-error-debate_n_6565788.html
  • ArcanaArcana Posts: 37,521
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    I blame the Poll Trolls.
  • OvalteenieOvalteenie Posts: 24,169
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    They got it right on Scotland with a near SNP whitewash :)
  • Wallasey SaintWallasey Saint Posts: 7,595
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    Quite a lot of the undecideds that turned it, i wasn't sure who to vote for myself until Wednesday night, never known so many still undecided who to vote for so close to the election.
  • Gordie1Gordie1 Posts: 6,993
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    Because telling the truth just isnt in a Tories nature.
  • Rhythm StickRhythm Stick Posts: 1,581
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    The sour grapes on the thread taste absolutely delicious I bet.
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 1,567
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    Ovalteenie wrote: »
    They got it right on Scotland with a near SNP whitewash :)

    Indeed, spot on with their forecast.

    However everyone got it wrong about the SNP being the power broker in parliament.

    Nicola will be well gutted but being the 3rd party in Westminster is a historic result.
  • MustabusterMustabuster Posts: 5,973
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    The sour grapes on the thread taste absolutely delicious I bet.

    Good for making wine.
  • Yoshi FanYoshi Fan Posts: 13,905
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    elliecat wrote: »
    Because of something called the "Shy Tory factor", they talked about it last night and in the papers today. People who vote Conservative tend not say and it's no wonder when they get abuse thrown at them.

    This I'd think is a big factor.

    I know Twitter is never the best place to judge opinion, but I've seen comments like "if you voted Tory, you're a ****/dick/****." and "you've condemned people to foodbanks and killed the NHS, shame on you all!" The comments are pure hatred.

    If that's the general feeling against people who vote Tory, it's no wonder so many of them kept quiet.
  • johnny121johnny121 Posts: 129
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    I spoke to some of my work colleagues about the election & quite a few changed their minds on the day of polling. Could well be a factor.
  • Speak-SoftlySpeak-Softly Posts: 24,737
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    Yoshi Fan wrote: »
    This I'd think is a big factor.

    I know Twitter is never the best place to judge opinion, but I've seen comments like "if you voted Tory, you're a ****/dick/****." and "you've condemned people to foodbanks and killed the NHS, shame on you all!" The comments are pure hatred.

    If that's the general feeling against people who vote Tory, it's no wonder so many of them kept quiet.

    Agreed.

    Labour supporters should look to their conduct and ask themselves why, in a mature democracy, significant numbers of people don't feel they can plainly state who they are going to vote for.
  • victor melvictor mel Posts: 4,963
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    Tory voters have always generally kept this to themselves. I found this during the Thatcher years when the on one side was despair and the other I am alright. Divide and conquer.
  • Tal'shiarTal'shiar Posts: 2,290
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    The sour grapes on the thread taste absolutely delicious I bet.

    From whom? Labour got a few more votes, in fact most parties got a few more votes than 2010. It seems that most of the new votes for the main parties was from the insane exodus of LibDem voters. Go look at the voting numbers, its more of the same as 2010 but with the LibDems taking a huge hit in the polls across the board.

    (also good to see people treating an election as a rival football match, people for and against Cons are the worst, the worshipers, somehow degrade politics to a fecking WWF match)
  • shelleyj89shelleyj89 Posts: 16,292
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    Yoshi Fan wrote: »
    This I'd think is a big factor.

    I know Twitter is never the best place to judge opinion, but I've seen comments like "if you voted Tory, you're a ****/dick/****." and "you've condemned people to foodbanks and killed the NHS, shame on you all!" The comments are pure hatred.

    If that's the general feeling against people who vote Tory, it's no wonder so many of them kept quiet.

    Worse than that, I've seen "If you voted Tory, you have blood on your hands."

    I have seen so much abuse from Labour voters aimed at Tory voters on social media. And not trolls or spam accounts, but people who I follow who are usually smart and level headed. It's ridiculous. In this day and age you should be able to vote for who you want to, and not be afraid to tell people who you voted for.
  • swingalegswingaleg Posts: 102,975
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    I think the last polls were showing Lab and tory both on around 33.......with a 3 point margin of error

    So both parties finishing with 30-35 is what the polls were saying

    As it goes I think there was a swing to Labour in England but it was nowhere near enough to make up for the loss of the Scottish seats and the collapse of the Lib Dems (which helps the Tories as there aren't many Lib-Lab contested seats, most of the former Lib seats had the Tories as the second party)
  • Rhythm StickRhythm Stick Posts: 1,581
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    Tal'shiar wrote: »
    From whom? Labour got a few more votes, in fact most parties got a few more votes than 2010. It seems that most of the new votes for the main parties was from the insane exodus of LibDem voters. Go look at the voting numbers, its more of the same as 2010 but with the LibDems taking a huge hit in the polls across the board.

    (also good to see people treating an election as a rival football match, people for and against Cons are the worst, the worshipers, somehow degrade politics to a fecking WWF match)

    From the below - clearly in this thread, surprised that you missed it. Sour grapes and possibly/probably a reason why more people don't vote for labour and such like because they're made out to be ***** for voting for what they feel is best for the country.
    victor mel wrote: »
    Tory voters have always generally kept this to themselves. I found this during the Thatcher years when the on one side was despair and the other I am alright. Divide and conquer.
    Sky_Guy wrote: »
    Gordie1 wrote: »
    Because telling the truth just isnt in a Tories nature.
    jojoeno wrote: »
    Because LibDem voters left them in droves and voted Tory, they are a useless spineless bunch and have landed us all in a Tory hellhole.
  • hazydayzhazydayz Posts: 6,909
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    All the Tory voters pretending they are shy lol.


    You know who the Tory voters are anyway. They're the ones in turtle necks and fancy clothes and they sound like Prince Charles, yerrrs,yerrrs dear, perhaps a spot of tea and some fox hunting will be theee order of the day. Tally ho.
  • shelleyj89shelleyj89 Posts: 16,292
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    hazydayz wrote: »
    All the Tory voters pretending they are shy lol.


    You know who the Tory voters are anyway. They're the ones in turtle necks and fancy clothes and they sound like Prince Charles, yerrrs,yerrrs dear, perhaps a spot of tea and some fox hunting will be theee order of the day. Tally ho.

    Awesome stereotyping there.
  • Speak-SoftlySpeak-Softly Posts: 24,737
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    hazydayz wrote: »
    All the Tory voters pretending they are shy lol.


    You know who the Tory voters are anyway. They're the ones in turtle necks and fancy clothes and they sound like Prince Charles, yerrrs,yerrrs dear, perhaps a spot of tea and some fox hunting will be theee order of the day. Tally ho.

    Don't know about "turtle necks" but that suit DC was wearing for the count was quality.
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