Is this a 1992 moment? - Exit poll

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  • 80sfan80sfan Posts: 18,522
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    moox wrote: »
    I already pointed out that the Conservatives are no real friend to us - but on balance, they're slightly more considerate than Labour ever were. The Lib Dems are a bit better but obviously they've never achieved serious power to repay us

    I know that you have some rabid desire to see a Labour government but the south west simply doesn't, and that's that. Perhaps if your party didn't try to screw us over to favour the north we'd think differently.

    Maggie Thatcher and her Tories screwed the North (and Wales and Scotland for that matter) again, again and again to line the pockets of southern England - were you moaning then? I very much doubt it, in fact, you probably approved of Thatcher and voted for her. I have absolutely no sympathy for the south-west whatsoever. As Tebbit famously said, get on your bike.
  • mooxmoox Posts: 18,880
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    80sfan wrote: »
    Maggie Thatcher and her Tories screwed the North (and Wales and Scotland for that matter) again, again and again to line the pockets of southern England - were you moaning then? I very much doubt it, in fact, you probably approved of Thatcher and voted for her. I have absolutely no sympathy for the south-west whatsoever. As Tebbit famously said, get on your bike.

    "but Thatcher" is getting a bit old now, she did leave government almost 25 years ago. Can't Labour find a new talking point? Cornwall is England's poorest county and has been for some time. Labour didn't care about us in their 13 years in power. Parts of Devon aren't far behind.

    I'm afraid you're confusing "southern England" with "south and south east England". Not the south west and definitely not Devon and Cornwall, which has always ranked low in affluence apart from very tiny pockets where the London holiday home brigade live

    Two problems with your accusation of who I have voted for - a) I wasn't old enough to vote during her reign and b) I've never voted Conservative, not even today

    I think you're getting a little too angry over the prospect of Red Ted not getting into number 10 after all.
  • Sky_GuySky_Guy Posts: 6,859
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    welwynrose wrote: »
    I know plenty of young people that vote conservative

    Indeed I voted tory in 2010 as a teenager.
  • welwynrosewelwynrose Posts: 33,666
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    moox wrote: »
    "but Thatcher" is getting a bit old now, she did leave government almost 25 years ago. Can't Labour find a new talking point?

    I'm afraid you're confusing "southern England" with "south and south east England". Not the south west and definitely not Devon and Cornwall, which has always ranked low in affluence apart from very tiny pockets where the London holiday home brigade live

    Two problems with your accusation of who I have voted for - a) I wasn't old enough to vote during her reign and b) I've never voted Conservative, not even today

    Yet labour supporters complain when Cameron blames the previous government maybe he should be blaming James Callaghan
  • JakobjoeJakobjoe Posts: 8,235
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    ive never voted tory. i was a labour voter until ukip came along. i think a lot of people were scared off labour at the last moment and decided to stick with what they had. labour need to re invent themselves especially with the scottish disaster
  • DDRickyDDDDRickyDD Posts: 5,247
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    The Tories might have performed better than the Exit polls suggest, most young people in a group don't like admitting they voted Tory in front of their friends because it isn't 'cool'.

    And there's rural area's with most people voting by post, who nearly always vote for the Conservatives.
  • heskethbangheskethbang Posts: 4,280
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    DDRickyDD wrote: »
    The Tories might have performed better than the Exit polls suggest, most young people in a group a don't like admitting they voted Tory in front of their friends because it isn't 'cool'.

    And there's rural area's with most people voting by post, who nearly always vote for the Conservatives.

    Got to admit, I didn't know who I was going to vote for until I reached the ballot box today. It was between 2 parties.
    Also, my profession is so anti-Tory that it could cost me work if I told people I did vote Tory, so I keep it under wraps. Such is the bigotry of the caring lefties :D

    My point is, I can easily see how the opinion polls can differ so greatly from the Exit Poll.
  • bryemycazbryemycaz Posts: 11,737
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    welwynrose wrote: »
    I know plenty of young people that vote conservative

    The first election I was eligable to vote in was 1997. There was lots of young people who had lived through the Thatcher/Major years and they voted for Blair. Then we have had a lot of youngsters who lived through the Blair/Brown years. They become eligable to vote and voted for Cameron/Clegg in the last election. Now this time who knows.
  • TassiumTassium Posts: 31,639
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    Exit polls don't get the practice that opinion polls get.
    Opinion polls have been refined endlessly for many many years.

    Not just in General Elections but also local elections and other activities where the prediction can be verified with results and the model tweaked even more.

    It's incredibly unlikely that YouGov are wrong.

    YouGov prediction (which was re-checked as an "Who did you actually vote for?" poll today)
    Tories on 284, Labour on 263, Lib Dems on 31 and the SNP on 48.
  • Aurora13Aurora13 Posts: 30,246
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    Tassium wrote: »
    Exit polls don't get the practice that opinion polls get.
    Opinion polls have been refined endlessly for many many years.

    Not just in General Elections but also local elections and other activities where the prediction can be verified with results and the model tweaked even more.

    It's incredibly unlikely that YouGov are wrong.

    YouGov prediction (which was re-checked as an "Who did you actually vote for?" poll today)
    Tories on 284, Labour on 263, Lib Dems on 31 and the SNP on 48.

    Exit poll was spot on in 2010.
  • Sky_GuySky_Guy Posts: 6,859
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    bryemycaz wrote: »
    The first election I was eligable to vote in was 1997. There was lots of young people who had lived through the Thatcher/Major years and they voted for Blair. Then we have had a lot of youngsters who lived through the Blair/Brown years. They become eligable to vote and voted for Cameron/Clegg in the last election. Now this time who knows.

    I lived though Blair, and Brown, I vowed never to vote Labour after that.

    I voted Tory first chance I got.

    UKIP this time though.
  • heskethbangheskethbang Posts: 4,280
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    Tassium wrote: »
    Exit polls don't get the practice that opinion polls get.
    Opinion polls have been refined endlessly for many many years.

    Not just in General Elections but also local elections and other activities where the prediction can be verified with results and the model tweaked even more.

    It's incredibly unlikely that YouGov are wrong.

    YouGov prediction (which was re-checked as an "Who did you actually vote for?" poll today)
    Tories on 284, Labour on 263, Lib Dems on 31 and the SNP on 48.

    Apparently, the Exit Poll surveyed 22000 voters in around 130 constituencies, at the same polling stations as in 2010 - when they got it spot on.

    While it's quite possible that we may have a 1992 situation, I think the nature of this election, along with the split of the Right, the fact that it's seen as uncool to vote Tory or UKIP, plus the number of undecided voters prior to today, means it shouldn't come as such a surprise for OP's to vary wildly from the Exit Poll.
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