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Will Russia "invade" Ukraine

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    alaninmcralaninmcr Posts: 1,685
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    Also "considering banning transit flights for EU and US airlines, in retaliation for sanctions over Ukraine".

    That could be a big boost for Chinese airlines at great cost for Western ones.
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    Jellied EelJellied Eel Posts: 33,091
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    Here's another one:

    Ambrose Evans-Pritchard - aged 56

    "Vladimir Putin's pointless conflict with Europe leaves it a vassal of China"

    Strange article. I liked this bit-

    This is an economic showdown between a $40 trillion power structure, and a $2 trillion producer of raw materials that has hollowed out its industrial core.

    Although I think he meant 'shakedown' rather than showdown. And the EU and US have also rather hollowed out their industrial cores as well. But Russia's signed a $20bn deal with Iran and depriving it of western baubles may just be what Russia needs to boost it's industrial core.
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    MARTYM8MARTYM8 Posts: 44,710
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    alaninmcr wrote: »
    According to the BBC, Russia is banning the import of food from the EU/US and also stopping Ukrainian airlines flying over Russia. See http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-28687172.

    And the EU are whinging about this - hilarious! It's called tit for tat EU bureaucrats!:D
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    LateralthinkingLateralthinking Posts: 8,027
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    Strange article. I liked this bit-

    This is an economic showdown between a $40 trillion power structure, and a $2 trillion producer of raw materials that has hollowed out its industrial core.

    Although I think he meant 'shakedown' rather than showdown. And the EU and US have also rather hollowed out their industrial cores as well. But Russia's signed a $20bn deal with Iran and depriving it of western baubles may just be what Russia needs to boost it's industrial core.

    Yes. I was reading today a long letter written by an Oxbridge don which was published in a newspaper in early spring. He was talking about the Russian economy - that it was smaller in size than a third of the three largest EU economies combined and smaller than the economy of California. And it seemed to me he was arguing the west was at liberty to interfere in Ukraine as much as it liked as it could prevent Russian military action with the ever increasing threat of sanctions. That sort of argument has only ever been countered in the media with a reference to Russian pride. It is as if Russia has no alternative trading options which we know is not the case, that the absence of a cold war had no value to us when it did and that the democratic process is entirely irrelevant which it isn't.

    Over 1,100 people in East Ukraine have now been killed by the Ukraine Government. One was in a hospital. By its own confession, its troops effectively invaded Russia this week by crossing the border for supposedly tactical purposes. What would you do in that event? What would anyone do? Go on holiday and pretend it all away or take action, amassing more troops on your side of the border, to ensure that there was no repeat? Instead, Peter Foster reports in the Telegraph from Washington that "Russia is preparing to send troops into eastern Ukraine under the pretext of mounting a humanitarian mission to save separatist rebels, Nato and American officials have warned". This is the line being trotted out not only in the Telegraph but in every western paper. Oana Lungescu, a Nato spokesman, said: “We’re not going to guess what’s on Russia’s mind" but that is precisely what Nato have done. And the one thing that organisation of military experts has ruled out is that it could have anything whatsoever to do with not wanting other country's armies stampeding over one's own land. A sinister lacuna rather than crassness.

    In March, we were told that Russia had 16,000 troops in the Crimean region and 11,000 troops on the East Ukraine border. Russia’s representative to the UN, Vitaly Churkin, reminded the UN that the deal surrounding the Black Sea Fleet allowed Russia to station a contingent of up to 25,000 troops in Ukraine. Immediately, the western figures were changed under a banner headline of there being "40,000 troops" to indicate that there were 30,000 troops in the former which, of course, conveniently exceeded that agreed limit. There were, it was said, 11,000 along the Eastern border, a figure which was being disputed by May. But on the 19th of that month, the Guardian reported: "Nato said.........it had not seen evidence of a pullback and......the US published satellite photos that it said showed Russian forces still massed near the Ukrainian border". So Nato and the US believed then there were still 11,000.

    On 16 June, Bloomberg went for the dramatic total figure again. "Russia has amassed as many as 38,000 soldiers on its borders with Ukraine and continues to supply arms and personnel to rebel forces in the east" it said. Only later in its article did it provide a clearer message on what was actually taking place: "Ukraine’s National Security Council chief said……..16,000 on the East Ukraine border and 22,000 in Crimea". On 14 July, an American media source which is probably part of Fox News said "Russia has been building up its forces again along the Ukrainian border and now has an estimated 10,000-12,000 troops in the area, a Nato military officer said Monday. Russia withdrew most of the 40,000 troops it had close to the border earlier this year, reducing them to fewer than 1,000 by mid-June. But since then, it has been building up its forces again, the officer said, speaking on condition of anonymity". That contradicted the Bloomberg report in mid June which suggested that 16,000 had been there rather than 1,000. If the former was true, the new numbers represented a reduction. Now we are told it's 20,000 on the Eastern border and how terrible it is when it is a modest increase on what has been there for much of this year.

    Chuck Hagel, the US defence secretary, said the threat of a Russian intervention in Ukraine was now “a reality” after a meeting with his senior US commanders in Stuttgart. That is the guy who has said "There is no glory in war; only suffering........The most dangerous thing we can do is to continue to isolate nations, is continue not to engage nations. Great powers engage". But Hagel was the person who advised Obama to pick Joe Biden as his running mate and we know that Biden Junior's shale oil interests have to take precedence over everyone else. Perhaps, then, that is why the Pentagon is to review its military numbers in Europe. EUCOM currently has a mere 68,000 which obviously Russia is expected just to accept without asking what is on the US or the EU's shrinking minds.
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    leicslad46leicslad46 Posts: 3,370
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    alaninmcr wrote: »
    Also "considering banning transit flights for EU and US airlines, in retaliation for sanctions over Ukraine".

    That could be a big boost for Chinese airlines at great cost for Western ones.
    Maybe the EU should impose a total air ban on all russian flights and refuse them landing rights. That could be extended to north american air space as well. Russian flights would be hardest hit and they would have to have a long diversion around europe. It is time to get tough on russia. After all it is THEY who though not directly contributed to MH17 being blown out of the sky. Just my opinion
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    Jellied EelJellied Eel Posts: 33,091
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    leicslad46 wrote: »
    After all it is THEY who though not directly contributed to MH17 being blown out of the sky. Just my opinion

    I thought it was shot down with a Ukrainian missile? But the investigation seems to be dragging on, even though sentence has already been passed..
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    Parker45Parker45 Posts: 5,854
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    leicslad46 wrote: »
    Maybe the EU should impose a total air ban on all russian flights and refuse them landing rights. That could be extended to north american air space as well. Russian flights would be hardest hit and they would have to have a long diversion around europe. It is time to get tough on russia. After all it is THEY who though not directly contributed to MH17 being blown out of the sky. Just my opinion

    Refuse landing rights to Russian airlines? Is that meant to be serious.? What's to stop Russia doing the same for the vastly greater number of EU airlines that fly to Russia which would cripple some of them. That sort of isolation would be absurd in any case because a huge amount of business which benefits us is done in Russia. And all because of what? Ukraine? Which the west never previously cared much about.
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    Parker45Parker45 Posts: 5,854
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    I thought it was shot down with a Ukrainian missile? But the investigation seems to be dragging on, even though sentence has already been passed..

    The air accident investigation interim report is not expected until September.

    http://www.foxnews.com/world/2014/08/06/dutch-safety-board-says-preliminary-report-on-ukraine-plane-disaster-delayed/

    http://www.onderzoeksraad.nl/en/onderzoek/2049/investigation-crash-mh17-17-july-2014

    "The Dutch Board of Safety will not make any statements with regard to blame or liability and these issues will not form part of the investigation".
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    smudges dadsmudges dad Posts: 36,989
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    leicslad46 wrote: »
    Maybe the EU should impose a total air ban on all russian flights and refuse them landing rights. That could be extended to north american air space as well. Russian flights would be hardest hit and they would have to have a long diversion around europe. It is time to get tough on russia. After all it is THEY who though not directly contributed to MH17 being blown out of the sky. Just my opinion
    Indirect causes would also be the EU for tacitly supporting the coup that got rid of the elected president and eventually led to the Ukrainians using aircraft to attack the East Ukrainians which meant they had to have anti aircraft missile to protect themselves.

    Maybe we should have sanctions on the EU because they started it all?
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    [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 14,922
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    It Begins: Canada To Send Military Equipment To Ukraine

    Moments ago Bloomberg reported, citing Defense minister Rob Nicholson speaking in Trenton, Ontario, that Canada, a NATO member, will send military equipment to Ukraine. Ukraine will in turn supposedly use supplies to protect eastern border Nicholson speaking to reporters, although perhaps one should ask ISIS where US military equipment that was meant for Al-Qaeda, pardon, Syrian rebels to dethrone Assad ended up...

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-08-07/it-begins-canada-send-military-equipment-ukraine

    America, well it's few at the top. not necessarily POTUS, are hell bent on starting war to save the dollar and their financial system. Using NATO is just par for the course, but it shouldn't be abused in this way.

    American backed thuggery took over Ukraine and kicked out the democratically elected leader. They then set about the Ukrainian people, killing, maiming, even burning them to death in locked buildings. Some of the people dared to object and they've been killed, maimed and isolated. Bombing them, shooting them, the whole nine yards set against them.

    In all this, Russia moved to protect Crimea, a place where it has a military base and port, a place where the people were afraid of what Ukraine had become. Protected without bloodshed, barely a shot fired, they then voted to be part of Russia.

    That's it, and on the back of that, the media has informed the world it was Russia to blame. It's got to the point now where war with Russia is seen as ok by many. How has the west become this corrupt? Are people that easily led by the msm? I despair at the number of sheep that blindly follow what their leaders say. :(
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    Jellied EelJellied Eel Posts: 33,091
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    Maybe we should have sanctions on the EU because they started it all?

    Please, don't go giving them any more ideas. Department of EU Sanctions. Hmm, what would my budget be?
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    alaninmcralaninmcr Posts: 1,685
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    Please, don't go giving them any more ideas. Department of EU Sanctions. Hmm, what would my budget be?

    Finland will be asking for help from the rest of the EU to offset the impact of the Russian sanctions.
    “If a particular country suffers particularly badly, then we need to look into it,” said Lenita Toivakka, minister for European affairs and foreign trade. “Sanctions as a rule should have an equal impact on member states.”
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    smudges dadsmudges dad Posts: 36,989
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    alaninmcr wrote: »
    Finland will be asking for help from the rest of the EU to offset the impact of the Russian sanctions.

    And, of course, sanctions should have absolutely no negative effect on the USA.
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    thenetworkbabethenetworkbabe Posts: 45,624
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    Parker45 wrote: »
    Refuse landing rights to Russian airlines? Is that meant to be serious.? What's to stop Russia doing the same for the vastly greater number of EU airlines that fly to Russia which would cripple some of them. That sort of isolation would be absurd in any case because a huge amount of business which benefits us is done in Russia. And all because of what? Ukraine? Which the west never previously cared much about.

    Thats what the bankers and appeasers and some business types said about Sudetenland, Czechoslovakia ,and Austria in the 1930s - and what many were still saying when Hitler took Poland too. Trivial sums of money , don't matter when we are effectively determining whether Putin will manage to restart the cold war, or will be deterred. He is effectively now just mirroring Stalin's paranoia about, and hostility to the West, and building support at home - by creating an external enemy in the same way, as sStalin The only difference is that Putin has substituted communism with even greater emphasis on Russian nationalism, The alternative to deterring him, is waking up one day and finding that he's threatening something we are committed to defending, putting troops in his way, hoping he doesn't call our conventional bluff, dusting off the nuclear war plans , and worrying belatedly why we will be relying on vastly reduced numbers of 20-52 year old strategic weapons for the next 20 years- while Russia has kept its tactical nuclear capability and currently is already half way through a massive nuclear replacement programme. ,
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    [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 14,922
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    Thats what the bankers and appeasers and some business types said about Sudetenland, Czechoslovakia ,and Austria in the 1930s - and what many were still saying when Hitler took Poland too. Trivial sums of money , don't matter when we are effectively determining whether Putin will manage to restart the cold war, or will be deterred. He is effectively now just mirroring Stalin's paranoia about, and hostility to the West, and building support at home - by creating an external enemy in the same way, as sStalin The only difference is that Putin has substituted communism with even greater emphasis on Russian nationalism, The alternative to deterring him, is waking up one day and finding that he's threatening something we are committed to defending, putting troops in his way, hoping he doesn't call our conventional bluff, dusting off the nuclear war plans , and worrying belatedly why we will be relying on vastly reduced numbers of 20-52 year old strategic weapons for the next 20 years- while Russia has kept its tactical nuclear capability and currently is already half way through a massive nuclear replacement programme. ,

    What has Putin or Russia actually done then?

    See post #3186 for an outline of events, then tell us what Russia has done that threatens the west?
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    LateralthinkingLateralthinking Posts: 8,027
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    News from Tass, dated 6 August, that Merkel and Putin have spoken, not that you would know it from our media. Some interesting points - what he really thinks, where they agreed - and seemingly in stark contrast to all the US, Nato and British talk in the last 48 hours. No wonder Parliament hasn't been recalled - and vacations are ongoing.

    http://en.itar-tass.com/russia/743831
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    Parker45Parker45 Posts: 5,854
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    News from Tass, dated 6 August, that Merkel and Putin have spoken, not that you would know it from our media. Some interesting points - what he really thinks, where they agreed - and seemingly in stark contrast to all the US, Nato and British talk in the last 48 hours. No wonder Parliament hasn't been recalled - and vacations are ongoing.

    http://en.itar-tass.com/russia/743831

    The additional link on that site to Lavrov's comments about invitations to Western journalists is revealing and seems to confirm that Western journalists (or more likely their employers) have absolutely no interest in reporting about what's happening in East Ukraine other than meekly following the political line. Whatever happened to journalistic principles and seeking out the truth? In almost every fighting conflict we find Western reporters on the ground - not in East Ukraine though.
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    [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 9,720
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    Ukraine ready to impose sanctions against any transit via its territory, including air flights and gas supplies to Europe, Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk said Friday. Ukraine's Parliament will vote on the sanctions on Tuesday.

    http://rt.com/business/178988-russia-ukraine-gas-transit/
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    smudges dadsmudges dad Posts: 36,989
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    Meilie wrote: »
    Ukraine ready to impose sanctions against any transit via its territory, including air flights and gas supplies to Europe, Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk said Friday. Ukraine's Parliament will vote on the sanctions on Tuesday.

    http://rt.com/business/178988-russia-ukraine-gas-transit/

    What are they going to do? Shoot them down (again?)
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    alaninmcralaninmcr Posts: 1,685
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    What are they going to do? Shoot them down (again?)

    Stop some EU countries from getting their gas supplies from Russia?
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    gulliverfoylegulliverfoyle Posts: 6,318
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    Meilie wrote: »
    Ukraine ready to impose sanctions against any transit via its territory, including air flights and gas supplies to Europe, Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk said Friday. Ukraine's Parliament will vote on the sanctions on Tuesday.

    http://rt.com/business/178988-russia-ukraine-gas-transit/

    the Ukrainians are commiting financial suicide with this one

    Putin must be laughing

    Obomber really shot himself in the foot with the sanctions

    winters coming
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    LateralthinkingLateralthinking Posts: 8,027
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    Parker45 wrote: »
    The additional link on that site to Lavrov's comments about invitations to Western journalists is revealing and seems to confirm that Western journalists (or more likely their employers) have absolutely no interest in reporting about what's happening in East Ukraine other than meekly following the political line. Whatever happened to journalistic principles and seeking out the truth? In almost every fighting conflict we find Western reporters on the ground - not in East Ukraine though.

    Yes indeed. No doubt someone could find loads of examples about how terrible they feel Lavrov has been in the past but I think he is human and direct. That is, it is reasonably unlikely that in the future there would be anyone more engaging in that sort of position. Western leaders should be recognising that point. Even Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher understood that leaving such matters to long term unknowns is never a very sensible decision.
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    LateralthinkingLateralthinking Posts: 8,027
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    "Ron Paul Says US "Likely Hiding Truth" About MH-17 Crash"

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/08/10/ron-paul-mh17-plane-crash_n_5665996.html

    A reminder of that Ambrose Evans-Pritchard piece in the Telegraph published 120 hours ago -

    "...........The world faces a moment of maximum danger in Ukraine. Vladimir Putin has perhaps 72 hours to decide whether to launch a full invasion of the Donbass, or accept defeat and let the Ukrainian military crush his proxy forces.............This is more serious than the Russian invasion of Afghanistan in 1980..............He (Putin) has been clear from the outset that he will deploy any means necessary to bring Ukraine back into Russia's orbit. Only war can now achieve this, since all else has failed, and since he has turned a friendly Ukraine into an enemy by his actions.

    The awful implications of this are at last starting to hit the markets. People thought that Russia was just playing a game of brinkmanship, and that pragmatism would prevail in the end. There is real fear now that this will spin out of control. Nothing cannot be excluded at this point, even a cut-off in oil and gas," said Chris Weafer, from Macro Advisory......Mr Putin is stuck in a Cold War timewarp....Novorossiya is his for the taking. It is his last lethal card".

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/11017413/Vladimir-Putins-pointless-conflict-with-Europe-leaves-it-a-vassal-of-China.html
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    [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 9,720
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    Putin: Russia will send humanitarian convoy to Ukraine.
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    [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 9,720
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    Meilie wrote: »
    Putin: Russia will send humanitarian convoy to Ukraine.

    Video of the convoy:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X72AmOyFN-M
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