The "John Major" effect we saw back in the '92 general election - people didn't want to admit to voting tory but did anyway. Mind you the sight of Kinnock holding his triumphalist final rally may've concentrated minds somewhat!
I would be very surprised if the Yes camp do win this, but whichever way it goes it'll be close - too close really as there's going to be acrimony either way.:(
I was going to refer to the '92 election too.
Apparently, it's quite common that when people do polls, they try to 'please' or 'impress' the person doing the survey, sometimes sub-consciously. It doesn't just apply to politics, which is why you have to be experienced in running surveys/polls, but they are never fool-proof.
If asked, a lot of people will say 'of course I'm happy to pay more tax to fund the NHS and to help my fellow man', but as soon as they get into the polling booth they think 'stuff that, I'm healthy and I'd rather get a new car'.
It's part of the Yes campaign strategy to have a lot of visible Yes voters and signs, to encourage people to think that's the 'right' and normal thing to do. That, coupled with frequently being told that No voters are traitors who hate their children (or English), means it's plausible these polls are vulnerable to similar bias.
I was also aware of a lot of Yes people complaining that they'd never been polled, and nor had any of their friends. I couldn't understand why it bothered them so much, because none of these polls actually count. However, given how keen they are to make themselves heard in the comments sections of newspapers etc, it made me wonder if they'd be doing everything they could to be available for polls. I'm not sure that could make much of a difference, and would arguably be shooting themselves in the foot. If we've learnt anything from X Factor is that the general public frequently fails to vote for a 'sure thing' on the grounds they thought other people were voting for it.:p
They were talking about how difficult it is to rely on polls for the referendum, because there's no experience of comparing them with actual results as we have for general election polling. They did talk about how the Canadian vote was not as predicted by the polls.
Apparently, it's quite common that when people do polls, they try to 'please' or 'impress' the person doing the survey, sometimes sub-consciously. It doesn't just apply to politics, which is why you have to be experienced in running surveys/polls, but they are never fool-proof.
If asked, a lot of people will say 'of course I'm happy to pay more tax to fund the NHS and to help my fellow man', but as soon as they get into the polling booth they think 'stuff that, I'm healthy and I'd rather get a new car'.
It's part of the Yes campaign strategy to have a lot of visible Yes voters and signs, to encourage people to think that's the 'right' and normal thing to do. That, coupled with frequently being told that No voters are traitors who hate their children (or English), means it's plausible these polls are vulnerable to similar bias.
I was also aware of a lot of Yes people complaining that they'd never been polled, and nor had any of their friends. I couldn't understand why it bothered them so much, because none of these polls actually count. However, given how keen they are to make themselves heard in the comments sections of newspapers etc, it made me wonder if they'd be doing everything they could to be available for polls. I'm not sure that could make much of a difference, and would arguably be shooting themselves in the foot. If we've learnt anything from X Factor is that the general public frequently fails to vote for a 'sure thing' on the grounds they thought other people were voting for it.:p
They were talking about how difficult it is to rely on polls for the referendum, because there's no experience of comparing them with actual results as we have for general election polling. They did talk about how the Canadian vote was not as predicted by the polls.
Speaking to the better half ( worked for Gallup back in the day) she said that polls and not just political ones were often weighted in favour of the opinion of the company paying for them so say a right wing media tycoon wanted a poll about the fortunes of the Tories Gallup would seek out a majority of Tory supporter in the sample to make it appear the Tories were doing rather well and vice versa.
Speaking to the better half ( worked for Gallup back in the day) she said that polls and not just political ones were often weighted in favour of the opinion of the company paying for them so say a right wing media tycoon wanted a poll about the fortunes of the Tories Gallup would seek out a majority of Tory supporter in the sample to make it appear the Tories were doing rather well and vice versa.
That's interesting....I read yesterday that a SNP member was encouraging people to sign up for yougov the other week....which poll has caused all the controversy ...? yes the yougov one ....coincidence...I'd doubt it.
Praying that this poll is wrong....tragedy if independence happens IMO .....I have noticed that the ones who are voting yes are shouting the loudest ....I've gotten into my fair share of debates on facebook and it's all the yes folk that are arguing with me, and being often quite nasty.......I've had private messages, or have seen people later and been told "we agree with you we just don't want to be shouted at or get into a row ...hoping the silent ones actually go and vote...Worrying times for many here
He'll find out just how loyal they are if we get the yes vote and it all goes pear shaped. Wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if he just said "Well, I got you independence now you sort it out, I'm off."
Lol, I doubt that. More likely that he will get the boot. The yes campaign definitely seems more popular than he is personally.
On facebook (the facebook that I see, obviously) the yes people have 100% dominance, so much so that I appealed for someone to put a Better Together post, but got no takers. And it is often of maddeningly poor quality, a mixture of childish conspiracy theories and the kind of nonsense parties that have never been in power feel free to say. I try not to be confrontational on facebook, since even if people are only facebook friends they are still people I feel a level of goodwill towards, but sometimes I have had to challenge things. "No country has ever voted against independence...we will be the laughing stock of the world...blah blah..." Yes, they have, no you wouldn't be. "The BBC have been told not to cover the save the NHS march in case it pushes people into voting yes..." They have been covering it, with full details and interviews. Would it be too much trouble to ask people to google something before they post a load of bollocks? Save the NHS! Save jobs! Vote for lower taxes! Vote for better schools, better child-care, more generous employment laws, better elderly care, better transport, more sunshine, an end to everything bad!
I genuinely can't remember if facebook was such a cesspit of silliness before the last general election, but I have HAD it with this. Even though I think a yes vote will be rather disastrous for England, I just want the whole thing over now, and for everyone to shut up about it.
Interesting to see whether all these Yes signs actually get taken back down again or whether they are just left to rot like advertising signs usually are around here. Getting really fed up of hearing about this bloody Independence thing. If the yes vote gets in then I hope the English living in mainly Yes areas are left in peace and not harassed. From what some of the young ones are saying, around here, they are voting Yes to get rid of England. No other thought or consideration put into it. As others have said it is quite worrying.
That's interesting....I read yesterday that a SNP member was encouraging people to sign up for yougov the other week....which poll has caused all the controversy ...? yes the yougov one ....coincidence...I'd doubt it.
Praying that this poll is wrong....tragedy if independence happens IMO .....I have noticed that the ones who are voting yes are shouting the loudest ....I've gotten into my fair share of debates on facebook and it's all the yes folk that are arguing with me, and being often quite nasty.......I've had private messages, or have seen people later and been told "we agree with you we just don't want to be shouted at or get into a row ...hoping the silent ones actually go and vote...Worrying times for many here
Kippers tend to be very noisy in places like Twitter, but it's really all noise, with a ton of C&Ping going on. It might be more sound than substance in this case too.
Comments
I was going to refer to the '92 election too.
Apparently, it's quite common that when people do polls, they try to 'please' or 'impress' the person doing the survey, sometimes sub-consciously. It doesn't just apply to politics, which is why you have to be experienced in running surveys/polls, but they are never fool-proof.
If asked, a lot of people will say 'of course I'm happy to pay more tax to fund the NHS and to help my fellow man', but as soon as they get into the polling booth they think 'stuff that, I'm healthy and I'd rather get a new car'.
It's part of the Yes campaign strategy to have a lot of visible Yes voters and signs, to encourage people to think that's the 'right' and normal thing to do. That, coupled with frequently being told that No voters are traitors who hate their children (or English
I was also aware of a lot of Yes people complaining that they'd never been polled, and nor had any of their friends. I couldn't understand why it bothered them so much, because none of these polls actually count. However, given how keen they are to make themselves heard in the comments sections of newspapers etc, it made me wonder if they'd be doing everything they could to be available for polls. I'm not sure that could make much of a difference, and would arguably be shooting themselves in the foot. If we've learnt anything from X Factor is that the general public frequently fails to vote for a 'sure thing' on the grounds they thought other people were voting for it.:p
They were talking about how difficult it is to rely on polls for the referendum, because there's no experience of comparing them with actual results as we have for general election polling. They did talk about how the Canadian vote was not as predicted by the polls.
Speaking to the better half ( worked for Gallup back in the day) she said that polls and not just political ones were often weighted in favour of the opinion of the company paying for them so say a right wing media tycoon wanted a poll about the fortunes of the Tories Gallup would seek out a majority of Tory supporter in the sample to make it appear the Tories were doing rather well and vice versa.
That's interesting....I read yesterday that a SNP member was encouraging people to sign up for yougov the other week....which poll has caused all the controversy ...? yes the yougov one ....coincidence...I'd doubt it.
Praying that this poll is wrong....tragedy if independence happens IMO .....I have noticed that the ones who are voting yes are shouting the loudest ....I've gotten into my fair share of debates on facebook and it's all the yes folk that are arguing with me, and being often quite nasty.......I've had private messages, or have seen people later and been told "we agree with you we just don't want to be shouted at or get into a row ...hoping the silent ones actually go and vote...Worrying times for many here
I doubt we will vote yes, I didn't.
Lol, I doubt that. More likely that he will get the boot. The yes campaign definitely seems more popular than he is personally.
On facebook (the facebook that I see, obviously) the yes people have 100% dominance, so much so that I appealed for someone to put a Better Together post, but got no takers. And it is often of maddeningly poor quality, a mixture of childish conspiracy theories and the kind of nonsense parties that have never been in power feel free to say. I try not to be confrontational on facebook, since even if people are only facebook friends they are still people I feel a level of goodwill towards, but sometimes I have had to challenge things. "No country has ever voted against independence...we will be the laughing stock of the world...blah blah..." Yes, they have, no you wouldn't be. "The BBC have been told not to cover the save the NHS march in case it pushes people into voting yes..." They have been covering it, with full details and interviews. Would it be too much trouble to ask people to google something before they post a load of bollocks? Save the NHS! Save jobs! Vote for lower taxes! Vote for better schools, better child-care, more generous employment laws, better elderly care, better transport, more sunshine, an end to everything bad!
I genuinely can't remember if facebook was such a cesspit of silliness before the last general election, but I have HAD it with this. Even though I think a yes vote will be rather disastrous for England, I just want the whole thing over now, and for everyone to shut up about it.
Kippers tend to be very noisy in places like Twitter, but it's really all noise, with a ton of C&Ping going on. It might be more sound than substance in this case too.
I'm saving up all the "yes" leaflets in the hope that I'll actually catch somebody delivering them so I can give them back.
The "no" leaflets just go straight in the bin.