2H2R-T returned itself with a 3/1 and a NR
System A had a couple of winners but a 16.80 pt loss
System B had two winners and a place but a 14.60 pt loss
2H2R-T Stats
2 wins from 6 bets 33.33%
Total stake 24 pts, total return 18.65 pts
P/L -5.35 pts, ROI -22.3%
SYSTEM A
203 wins from 724 bets 28.03%
Total stake 1448 pts, total return 1354.52 pts
P/L -93.48 pts, ROI -6.46%
SYSTEM B
107 wins from 418 bets 25.59%
Total stake 910 pts, total return 881.98 pts
P/L -28.02 pts, ROI -3.08%
Bet 1
Ludlow 02:20 Trickaway and Until Winning
Southwell 04:15 Walk Like A Giant and Pirate Cove
Bet 2
Southwell 03:40 Gabrial The Duke and Royal Peculiar
Thurles 03:45 Winter Breeze and Lahaag
Bet 3
Ludlow 05:00 Vodka Wells and Bobble Boru
Chelmsford 05:35 Legal Art and Miss Excellence
System A[/B/[U/]
Southwell 02:10 - Moon River
Thurles 02:15 - Feenakilmeedy
Ludlow 02:20 - Trickaway
Thurles 02:45 - Irish Thistle
Ludlow 02:50 - Blameitalonmyroots
Thurles 03:15 - Milsean, Sambremont
Ludlow 03:20 - Tony Star
Taunton 03:30 - Amanto, Alternatif
Southwell 03:40 - Royal Peculiar
Taunton 04:05 - Chosen Milan
Southwell 04:15 - Walk Like A Giant
Thurles 04:20 - Ryansbrook, Whatuthink
Ludlow 04:25 - Out Now
Taunton 04:40 - Cresswell Breeze
Southwell 04:50 - Dark Diamond
Thurles 04:55 - Lukes Benefit
Taunton 05:10 - Dancing Solo
Thurles 05:25 - Westerner Lady
Total System A stake = 42 pts
System B[/B/[U/]
With System B I originally said that if it found three or more horses in a race, then I'd not do the race, but I've noticed that this has caused it to miss out on some decent priced winners which would have definitely resulted in a profit on that race.
So, for today and tomorrow at least (as I generally don't do Systems A and B at the weekend) I'll revise that. However, if the number of available places drops below the number of horses selected, then I'll still bin the race.
Ludlow 01:50 - Sweeping Rock
Taunton 02:00 - Flanagans Field
Thurles 02:15 - Shaunas Dream, Shuilamach (dbl stake)
Ludlow 02:20 - Gallery Exhibition
Taunton 02:30 - Dunns River
Thurles 02:45 - Rubi Light
Thurles 03:15 - Milsean
Ludlow 03:20 - Alfie Spinner
Taunton 03:30 - Dragons Den, Saint Breiz
Southwell 03:40 - Lycidas
Ludlow 03:50 - (9) After Eight Sivola, Looks Like Power (dbl stake), Vivant Poeme
Southwell 04:15 - Back Burner, Senor George
Thurles 04:20 - Really Unique, Ryansbrook
Taunton 04:40 - Johns Luck
Southwell 04:50 - Secret Recipe
Thurles 04:55 - (15) Do Try Dolly, Edmundo, Fainne An Lae
Ludlow 05:00 - Fairy Alisha
Taunton 05:10 - (9) Dancing Solo (dbl stake), Kavestorm, Look For Love
Thurles 05:25 - Elusive Ivy
Chelmsford 06:10 - Hermosa Vaquera, Koos
Chelmsford 07:40 - Noguchi
Chelmsford 08:10 - Golden Amber
Chelmsford 08:40 - Cottrell
2H2R-T failed to find a single winner
System A had four winners and returned 30.27 pts, a 11.73 pt loss
System B had four winners and four places and returned 67.08 pts, a 4.92 pt loss.
2H2R-T Stats
2 wins from 9 bets 22.22%
Total stake 36 pts, total return 18.65 pts
P/L -17.35 pts, ROI -48.2%
SYSTEM A
207 wins from 745 bets 27.78%
Total stake 1490 pts, total return 1384.79 pts
P/L -105.21 pts, ROI -7.07%
SYSTEM B
115 wins from 451 bets 25.49%
Total stake 982 pts, total return 949.06 pts
P/L -32.94 pts, ROI -3.36%
2H2R-T bet 1 returned 1.91 thanks to a NR and a 10/11 winner, the rest flopped with one winner in each bet.
System A had three winners but fell 2.26 pts short of a profit.
System B fared better thanks to 16/1 and 10/1 winners early on, and had eight winners and four places returning a 10.65 pt profit.
2H2R-T Stats
3 wins from 13 bets 23.07%
Total stake 52 pts, total return 20.56 pts
P/L -31.44 pts, ROI -60.47%
SYSTEM A
210 wins from 756 bets 27.77%
Total stake 1512 pts, total return 1404.53 pts
P/L -107.47 pts, ROI -7.11%
SYSTEM B
127 wins from 487 bets 26.07%
Total stake 1058 pts, total return 1035.71 pts
P/L -22.29 pts, ROI -2.11%
After a couple of months I'm knocking this one on the head now
I'm satisfied that this system can't be profitable in the long run
I think the problem is that by awarding points for previous finishing position you're 'picking' horses that have been at the top of their form for a couple of runs......but of course they've then gone up in the weights and possibly been forced into a higher grade, Not many horses, for example, would win 3 handicaps on the trot, the system is designed to stop that happening !
I've got another idea to try out which I'll post up when the first suitable race comes along.........:)
My new idea is for novice hurdle races. I've noticed how you usually get a very skewed market on early prices often with a couple of fancied ones and everything else at big prices. I think this is because there's usually not a lot of form to go on and horses that have already won a novice race can be very heavily backed despite carrying a penalty or double penalty
Before the off all the other prices collapse as the bookies start to worry about their EW liabilities
So the system is designed to take EW advantage of generous early prices on novice hurdles.
I'll be looking for races with 10 or more runners to allow for a couple of NRs and still get 3 places. I'll be looking to select the 4th favourite as long as it's got a double figure price. If there are joint 4th favourites I'll pick the one with the biggest RPR and if none have an RPR I'll leave the race alone.
Now it's quite likely that there might not be a lot of selections.......so to keep the thing ticking over and for comparison I'll also use the same criteria on Maiden Hurdles and Maiden Flat races. My expectation is that the novice hurdles will prove more profitable because of the penalty structure for winners whereas winners of maiden hurdles and flat races can't run again in those type of races.
These kind of races are not usually priced up until the morning of the race so I'll generally be posting selections late morning.
Because my new system might not be very prolific in runners I'm going to include the Irish racing as well. Any odds quoted will be 'best price with bog' at time of posting
As the odds go up and down it's possible that other selections can be added later in the day if I check the cards again
Novice hurdles - no qualifying races today
Flat maidens - no flat racing today
Maiden Hurdles
Navan 2.20 - Good Cause - 10/1
Hunt 4.30 - Rock of Ages - 10/1
As I often look at these races for EW bets I think I'll note any 'pick of the day' selections which don't fit the system........just to see if educated.............picks can beat the system
Swing, I like the idea of E/W value in a 4th favourite in 3-place novice hurdles. I've been looking at picking 2nd or 3rd favourites across the board (given certain qualifying criteria) but need to spend a bit more time on it first. That'll be a replacement for the failing System A eventually, although I'll run that for another few days at least.
One of the selection options for System A is to pick any horse in the top three in the racecard in handicaps, for certain trainers, that bit has been interesting and profitable, so might get its own system soon.
I might expand this to take in a couple of horses per race if for example the 4th and 5th favourites are 16/1 and 20/1 and everything else is 50/1 and bigger I could pick the two horses
Also you occasionally get races, usually with an odds on favourite, where the 3rd favourite is double figure odds
But obviously with a 'system' you really need hard and fast rules that you stick to.......otherwise you're just selecting horses on whether you like their chance or not which defeats the object of a system !
So the rule is basically to pick the first or second or both horses in the betting that are double figure odds providing there are no more than 3 horses in single figure odds !
Novice hurdles - no qualifying races today
Flat maidens - no flat racing today
Maiden Hurdles
Navan 2.20 - Good Cause - 10/1
Hunt 4.30 - Rock of Ages - 10/1
Rock of Ages was a NR. Good Cause ran OK, never really put in with a chance but ran around on the coat-tails of the leading pack and carried on to the finish, coming in 6th. Two of the placed horses had SPs of 25/1 and 16/1 which is a moral victory in that it re-forces that big priced ones can beat the market leaders in these races. It's just a case of picking the right ones.......
No qualifying races tomorrow......I fear this might happen a lot with the small fields around at the moment. Perhaps I'll tweak the conditions if we get days and days with no qualifiers.
Comments
2H2R-T Bet 1
Bangor 02:25 Hurricane's Girl and Abigail Lynch
Kempton 05:15 Boboli Gardens and Hierarch
System A
Bangor 02:25 - Abigail Lynch, Allez Encore
Wincanton 02:40 - Businessmoney Judi
Wincanton 03:10 - Atlantic Roller
Bangor 03:25 - Mackerye End, Kellys Brow
Wincanton 03:40 - Risk A Fine, Alto Des Mottes
Wincanton 04:10 - Bach On Tow, Dont Call Me Oscar
Bangor 04:55 - Jaunty Thor
Kempton 05:15 - Hierarch
Kempton 06:15 - Happy Dreams, Water Dancer
Kempton 07:15 - Lyssio
System A total stake = 30 pts
System B
Wincanton 02:10 - Streets Of Promise
Bangor 02:25 - Allez Encore
Wincanton 02:40 - Businessmoney Judi (dbl stake)
Bangor 02:55 - Zero Visibility
Wincanton 03:10 - Moujik Borget
Bangor 03:25 - Kellys Brow
Wincanton 03:40 - Revaader
Bangor 04:25 - Flying Light
Bangor 04:55 - Jaunty Thor
Kempton 05:15 - Hierarch, Monsieur Royale
Kempton 06:15 - Happy Dreams, Water Dancer
Kempton 07:15 - Kyllachy Spirit, Lyssio
Kempton 08:45 - Bouncing Czech
System B total bets = 16, stake = 34 pts
blimey.......5 losers
Running Totals
231 selections
45 winners
186 losers
P/L - (-25.90)
2.10 Come Uppance (11) – 9/2
3.10 Lucky Mark (10) – 9/2
3.40 Gabrial The Duke (10) – 3/1
4.15 Walk Lke a giant (8) – 7/4
4.50 General Tufto (8) - 7/1
2H2R-T returned itself with a 3/1 and a NR
System A had a couple of winners but a 16.80 pt loss
System B had two winners and a place but a 14.60 pt loss
2H2R-T Stats
2 wins from 6 bets 33.33%
Total stake 24 pts, total return 18.65 pts
P/L -5.35 pts, ROI -22.3%
SYSTEM A
203 wins from 724 bets 28.03%
Total stake 1448 pts, total return 1354.52 pts
P/L -93.48 pts, ROI -6.46%
SYSTEM B
107 wins from 418 bets 25.59%
Total stake 910 pts, total return 881.98 pts
P/L -28.02 pts, ROI -3.08%
2H2R-T[/B/[U/]
Bet 1
Ludlow 02:20 Trickaway and Until Winning
Southwell 04:15 Walk Like A Giant and Pirate Cove
Bet 2
Southwell 03:40 Gabrial The Duke and Royal Peculiar
Thurles 03:45 Winter Breeze and Lahaag
Bet 3
Ludlow 05:00 Vodka Wells and Bobble Boru
Chelmsford 05:35 Legal Art and Miss Excellence
System A[/B/[U/]
Southwell 02:10 - Moon River
Thurles 02:15 - Feenakilmeedy
Ludlow 02:20 - Trickaway
Thurles 02:45 - Irish Thistle
Ludlow 02:50 - Blameitalonmyroots
Thurles 03:15 - Milsean, Sambremont
Ludlow 03:20 - Tony Star
Taunton 03:30 - Amanto, Alternatif
Southwell 03:40 - Royal Peculiar
Taunton 04:05 - Chosen Milan
Southwell 04:15 - Walk Like A Giant
Thurles 04:20 - Ryansbrook, Whatuthink
Ludlow 04:25 - Out Now
Taunton 04:40 - Cresswell Breeze
Southwell 04:50 - Dark Diamond
Thurles 04:55 - Lukes Benefit
Taunton 05:10 - Dancing Solo
Thurles 05:25 - Westerner Lady
Total System A stake = 42 pts
System B[/B/[U/]
With System B I originally said that if it found three or more horses in a race, then I'd not do the race, but I've noticed that this has caused it to miss out on some decent priced winners which would have definitely resulted in a profit on that race.
So, for today and tomorrow at least (as I generally don't do Systems A and B at the weekend) I'll revise that. However, if the number of available places drops below the number of horses selected, then I'll still bin the race.
Ludlow 01:50 - Sweeping Rock
Taunton 02:00 - Flanagans Field
Thurles 02:15 - Shaunas Dream, Shuilamach (dbl stake)
Ludlow 02:20 - Gallery Exhibition
Taunton 02:30 - Dunns River
Thurles 02:45 - Rubi Light
Thurles 03:15 - Milsean
Ludlow 03:20 - Alfie Spinner
Taunton 03:30 - Dragons Den, Saint Breiz
Southwell 03:40 - Lycidas
Ludlow 03:50 - (9) After Eight Sivola, Looks Like Power (dbl stake), Vivant Poeme
Southwell 04:15 - Back Burner, Senor George
Thurles 04:20 - Really Unique, Ryansbrook
Taunton 04:40 - Johns Luck
Southwell 04:50 - Secret Recipe
Thurles 04:55 - (15) Do Try Dolly, Edmundo, Fainne An Lae
Ludlow 05:00 - Fairy Alisha
Taunton 05:10 - (9) Dancing Solo (dbl stake), Kavestorm, Look For Love
Thurles 05:25 - Elusive Ivy
Chelmsford 06:10 - Hermosa Vaquera, Koos
Chelmsford 07:40 - Noguchi
Chelmsford 08:10 - Golden Amber
Chelmsford 08:40 - Cottrell
Total System B bets = 34, stake = 74 pts
Bad day today........only 1 got placed......
Running Totals
236 selections
45 winners
191 losers
P/L - (-30.90)
Lingfield
2.20 Total Demolition (12) - 7/2
2.50 Lupo D'oro (9) - 15/8
5.05 Admirable Art (7) - 4/1
Wolves
5.45 Glos Last (13) - 15/8
6.15 Lean On Pete (7) - 7/2
6.45 Cabal (10) - 11/4
7.45 Dream Child (11) - 6/5
8.15 Bushtiger (4) - 4/1
System A had four winners and returned 30.27 pts, a 11.73 pt loss
System B had four winners and four places and returned 67.08 pts, a 4.92 pt loss.
2H2R-T Stats
2 wins from 9 bets 22.22%
Total stake 36 pts, total return 18.65 pts
P/L -17.35 pts, ROI -48.2%
SYSTEM A
207 wins from 745 bets 27.78%
Total stake 1490 pts, total return 1384.79 pts
P/L -105.21 pts, ROI -7.07%
SYSTEM B
115 wins from 451 bets 25.49%
Total stake 982 pts, total return 949.06 pts
P/L -32.94 pts, ROI -3.36%
2H2R-T
Bet 1
Lingfield 05:05 Admirable Art and Bloodsweatandtears
Wolverhampton 08:45 No Rum and Final
Bet 2
Newbury 02:30 Minella Rocco and Royal Vacation
Doncaster 04:50 Crazy Jack and Quicuyo
Bet 3
Newbury 02:00 Sebastian Beach and Brook
Doncaster 02:40 Hannah's Princess and Hurricanes Girl
Bet 4
Newbury 04:10 Fourth Act and Spirit DArmor
Dundalk 06:05 Maronella and Hat Alnasar
System A
Lingfield 02:20 - Total Demolition
Newbury 03:00 - Village Vic
Doncaster 03:10 - Hunters Hoof
Lingfield 04:00 - Ritas Boy
Newbury 04:10 - Fourth Act, Vif Argent
Newbury 04:40 - Obistar
Doncaster 04:50 - Crazy Jack
Doncaster 05:25 - Harveys Hope
Wolverhampton 06:15 - Spreadable
Dundalk 09:05 - Hurricane Ridge
Total System A stake = 22 pts
System B
Newbury 02:00 - Bishop Wulstan, Space Walker
Doncaster 02:10 - Old Pride
Newbury 02:30 - April Dusk (dbl stake), Showboater
Doncaster 02:40 - Always Managing, Hannahs Princess
Newbury 03:00 - Cody Wyoming, Paddy The Stout
Lingfield 03:25 - Mareef
Newbury 03:35 - Trillerin Minella, Winston Churchill
Doncaster 03:45 - Pure Oxygen
Lingfield 04:00 - Merdon Castle
Newbury 04:10 - Spirit DArmor
Doncaster 04:20 - Favorite Girl
Newbury 04:40 - Urban Storm
Doncaster 04:50 - Crazy Jack, Tiptoeaway
Doncaster 05:25 - Dolly Diamond
Dundalk 05:35 - Strategic Heights
Wolverhampton 05:45 - Gios Last, Rosie Hall (dbl stake)
Wolverhampton 06:15 - Sonnetation
Dundalk 06:35 - Have A Nice Day, Yes I Am
Wolverhampton 06:45 - (9) Cookie Ring, Destiny Blue, Spokesperson
Dundalk 07:05 - Ace Of Arts, Behind Bars
Wolverhampton 07:15 - Snow Dancer
Wolverhampton 07:45 - Cullentry Royal
Dundalk 08:05 - Coach Bombay, Manorov
Wolverhampton 08:15 - Bushtiger
Dundalk 08:35 - On The Motorway
Dundalk 09:05 - Hurricane Ridge
Total System B bets = 38, stake = 80 pts
2/1 and 6/5 winners........a loss of 2.80 on the day
Running Totals
244 selections
47 winners
197 losers
P/L - (-33.10)
Lingfield
2.20 Waabel (8) - 11/2
2.55 Spiritual Star (8) - 8/1
4.05 Doctor Parkes (10) - 6/1
4.40 Precision Five (11) - 9/4
5.15 Quality art (11) - 9/4
System A had three winners but fell 2.26 pts short of a profit.
System B fared better thanks to 16/1 and 10/1 winners early on, and had eight winners and four places returning a 10.65 pt profit.
2H2R-T Stats
3 wins from 13 bets 23.07%
Total stake 52 pts, total return 20.56 pts
P/L -31.44 pts, ROI -60.47%
SYSTEM A
210 wins from 756 bets 27.77%
Total stake 1512 pts, total return 1404.53 pts
P/L -107.47 pts, ROI -7.11%
SYSTEM B
127 wins from 487 bets 26.07%
Total stake 1058 pts, total return 1035.71 pts
P/L -22.29 pts, ROI -2.11%
Newbury 145 Irish Buccaneer and Leave It Be
Newbury 250 Albert Bridge and Alltwaal
Shame I didn't do the f/c on the 145. :-(
Nothing today. 10lb claimer needs to learn how to just sit and let the horse do the work.
Five losers
Running Totals
249 selections
47 winners
202 losers
P/L - (-38.10)
After a couple of months I'm knocking this one on the head now
I'm satisfied that this system can't be profitable in the long run
I think the problem is that by awarding points for previous finishing position you're 'picking' horses that have been at the top of their form for a couple of runs......but of course they've then gone up in the weights and possibly been forced into a higher grade, Not many horses, for example, would win 3 handicaps on the trot, the system is designed to stop that happening !
I've got another idea to try out which I'll post up when the first suitable race comes along.........:)
Before the off all the other prices collapse as the bookies start to worry about their EW liabilities
So the system is designed to take EW advantage of generous early prices on novice hurdles.
I'll be looking for races with 10 or more runners to allow for a couple of NRs and still get 3 places. I'll be looking to select the 4th favourite as long as it's got a double figure price. If there are joint 4th favourites I'll pick the one with the biggest RPR and if none have an RPR I'll leave the race alone.
Now it's quite likely that there might not be a lot of selections.......so to keep the thing ticking over and for comparison I'll also use the same criteria on Maiden Hurdles and Maiden Flat races. My expectation is that the novice hurdles will prove more profitable because of the penalty structure for winners whereas winners of maiden hurdles and flat races can't run again in those type of races.
These kind of races are not usually priced up until the morning of the race so I'll generally be posting selections late morning.
As the odds go up and down it's possible that other selections can be added later in the day if I check the cards again
Novice hurdles - no qualifying races today
Flat maidens - no flat racing today
Maiden Hurdles
Navan 2.20 - Good Cause - 10/1
Hunt 4.30 - Rock of Ages - 10/1
Today I'm going for
4.30 Hunt - Top Man Marty - EW at 16/1
Huntingdon 02:00 Lanceur and Perfect Summer
Huntingdon 04:00 Malanos and Tealissio
One of the selection options for System A is to pick any horse in the top three in the racecard in handicaps, for certain trainers, that bit has been interesting and profitable, so might get its own system soon.
Good luck :-)
I might expand this to take in a couple of horses per race if for example the 4th and 5th favourites are 16/1 and 20/1 and everything else is 50/1 and bigger I could pick the two horses
Also you occasionally get races, usually with an odds on favourite, where the 3rd favourite is double figure odds
But obviously with a 'system' you really need hard and fast rules that you stick to.......otherwise you're just selecting horses on whether you like their chance or not which defeats the object of a system !
So the rule is basically to pick the first or second or both horses in the betting that are double figure odds providing there are no more than 3 horses in single figure odds !
Rock of Ages was a NR. Good Cause ran OK, never really put in with a chance but ran around on the coat-tails of the leading pack and carried on to the finish, coming in 6th. Two of the placed horses had SPs of 25/1 and 16/1 which is a moral victory in that it re-forces that big priced ones can beat the market leaders in these races. It's just a case of picking the right ones.......
Maiden Hurdle
Today - 1 runner, 1 loser, total stakes 2 points, P/L - 2.00
My pick of the day ran into 3rd
Pick Of The Day
Today - 1 runner, 1 placer, total stakes 2 points, P/L + 2.20
No qualifying races tomorrow......I fear this might happen a lot with the small fields around at the moment. Perhaps I'll tweak the conditions if we get days and days with no qualifiers.
One from two, not good enough
Fakenham 02:00 Bathcounty and Lions Charge
Wolverhampton 03:10 Shipwright and Exentricity
System A
Southwell 02:50 - Dixie Bull
Wolverhampton 03:40 - Foxcover
Southwell 03:50 - Mondo Cane
Wolverhampton 04:40 - Virtual Reality
Wolverhampton 05:10 - Edgware Road, Enriching
Wolverhampton 05:40 - Subcontinent, Snow Pearl
Total System A stake = 16 pts
System B
Fakenham 02:00 - Lions Charge
Fakenham 02:30 - Aviator, Mr Burbidge
Southwell 02:50 - Tarabela
Fakenham 03:00 - Alright Benny, Wish In A Well
Fakenham 03:30 - Azabitmour, Cafe Au Lait
Wolverhampton 03:40 - Foxcover
Southwell 03:50 - (13) Joyful Motive, Mazurati, Sand Artist
Fakenham 04:00 - Jackthejourneyman, Morestead
Wolverhampton 04:40 - Virtual Reality
Southwell 04:50 - Dont Call Me Oscar, Zero Visibility
Wolverhampton 05:10 - (10) Dimitar, Edgware Road (dbl stake), Enriching
Wolverhampton 05:40 - Madam Midnight
Total System B bets = 21, stake = 44 pts