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White smoke in Greece. A Greek deal imminent.

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    MeepersMeepers Posts: 5,502
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    MTUK1 wrote: »
    Do you know the referendum result already then? Are you a fortune teller?
    So you think a huge swing will happen in the polls? Despite them moving further against the government every day?
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    Jim NashJim Nash Posts: 1,085
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    I thought "no" was leading.
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    MTUK1MTUK1 Posts: 20,077
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    Meepers wrote: »
    So you think a huge swing will happen in the polls? Despite them moving further against the government every day?

    Lol. Deluded again. They are not moving against the government every day. Are you in a parallel universe? Last poll I saw said the yes had a very slight lead but within margin of error. And 19% are still undecided. So stop posting nonsense.
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    [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 872
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    Meepers wrote: »
    So you think a huge swing will happen in the polls? Despite them moving further against the government every day?

    The polls are pretty much neck and neck. All of today's ones anyway.
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    MTUK1MTUK1 Posts: 20,077
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    The polls are pretty much neck and neck. All of todays ones anyway.

    Exactly.
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    Aurora13Aurora13 Posts: 30,246
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    The polls are pretty much neck and neck. All of today's ones anyway.

    Are people seriously quoting polls? LOL

    They've been wrong so much around the world. Where is the 'quiet' element in this? My quess would be yes voters but who knows.
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    MeepersMeepers Posts: 5,502
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    MTUK1 wrote: »
    Lol. Deluded again. They are not moving against the government every day. Are you in a parallel universe? Last poll I saw said the yes had a very slight lead but within margin of error. And 19% are still undecided. So stop posting nonsense.
    Yes they are. The government had a huge lead when it called the referendum. And every day support has fallen away. People realise the truth, and its hurts you
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    [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 872
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    When the government first called the referendum last Friday evening, the bookie odds were on their side.
    By Monday when capital controls were introduced and bank closures begining, the bookie odds did a 360 favouring the Yes side.

    As the polls began to be released last couple of days, three today released, it shows that the momentum is shifting towards the No side. The odds have shortened too.

    So it is fair to say, that after a miserable start to the week for Tsipras with initial polls, he is now closing in on his position of a no vote in the polls. Sunday will tell us exactly what the Greek people are thinking.
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    Jim NashJim Nash Posts: 1,085
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    So assuming the momentum continues, the no's will have it.

    Wonder how that'll change things? The theory is it'll give Tsipras a mandate for a better deal. What will Spain, Italy etc have to say about that? Or the Germans?
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    NosediveNosedive Posts: 6,602
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    Richard Quest reporting from Athens on CNN just now saying the mood of the protestors gathered at the 'No' rally is about to explode in to a riot.

    Judging from the noise in the shots of the 'no' protestors assembled behind him I'd say the mood was certainly pretty tense.
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    MTUK1MTUK1 Posts: 20,077
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    When the government first called the referendum last Friday evening, the bookie odds were on their side.
    By Monday when capital controls were introduced and bank closures begining, the bookie odds did a 360 favouring the Yes side.

    As the polls began to be released last couple of days, three today released, it shows that the momentum is shifting towards the No side. The odds have shortened too.

    So it is fair to say, that after a miserable start to the week for Tsipras with initial polls, he is now closing in on his position of a no vote in the polls. Sunday will tell us exactly what the Greek people are thinking.

    Fingers crossed it's a no. The Greeks will suffer initially but after a few years they'll get back on their feet. Stick two fingers up to Brussels, Greece.
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    MTUK1MTUK1 Posts: 20,077
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    Jim Nash wrote: »
    So assuming the momentum continues, the no's will have it.

    Wonder how that'll change things? The theory is it'll give Tsipras a mandate for a better deal. What will Spain, Italy etc have to say about that? Or the Germans?

    I don't think Brussels will give them a deal.
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    Jim NashJim Nash Posts: 1,085
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    MTUK1 wrote: »
    I don't think Brussels will give them a deal.


    LOL, if the alternative is crashing out the Euro, I think they will.
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    Jim NashJim Nash Posts: 1,085
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    MTUK1 wrote: »
    The Greeks will suffer initially but after a few years they'll get back on their feet. Stick two fingers up to Brussels, Greece.


    Problem is that the Greeks just aren't hearing this. They're plainly convinced that Euro exit = lights out.
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    MTUK1MTUK1 Posts: 20,077
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    Jim Nash wrote: »
    LOL, if the alternative is crashing out the Euro, I think they will.

    What I mean is if they vote no, I don't think they will. And it's delightful to watch because certain figures in Brussels are trying to destabilize the Greek government because the Greeks dare to offer their people a referendum. Anyone would think we're in Soviet Russia.

    The Euro is going to fail anyway. It's structurally unsound as a currency.
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    [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 872
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    Jim Nash wrote: »
    So assuming the momentum continues, the no's will have it.

    Wonder how that'll change things? The theory is it'll give Tsipras a mandate for a better deal. What will Spain, Italy etc have to say about that? Or the Germans?

    Today is second last day of polls. Yes had comfortable lead midweek.
    Three polls released today.
    Yes side ahead in two by less than 1%
    No side ahead in one by less than 1%
    Bookies odds are more favourable to a yes vote.

    But what seemed like all but dead at start/midweek for the No side, yesterday and today has thrown some much needed momentun to the that side from their perspective.
    The IMF also made a public bold move yesterday and disagreed with europe and said Greece needs debt relief and their debt is unsustainable. Some view that as a gift of sorts to the No side, difficult to argue with that. It gave Tsipras ammunition today in his address to the nation.

    It'll be close, most analysts predicting a narrow yes vote. A senior Greek minister on Irish radio yesterday obviously in favour of no but also predicting a narrow yes vote.
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    gulliverfoylegulliverfoyle Posts: 6,318
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    MTUK1 wrote: »
    Fingers crossed it's a no. The Greeks will suffer initially but after a few years they'll get back on their feet. Stick two fingers up to Brussels, Greece.

    and reform theyre country and try to live within their means and PAY THEIR TAXES

    as any "proud" "democratic" people do
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    MTUK1MTUK1 Posts: 20,077
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    and reform theyre country and try to live within their means and PAY THEIR TAXES

    as any "proud" "democratic" people do

    I am not saying the Greeks are angels by any means. They had a great life at our expense for many years, but Brussels and the ECB are not exactly shining themselves in glory are they?
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    LamparillaLamparilla Posts: 588
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    What I don't get is how Tsipras is selling a NO vote as a way of giving Greece more bargaining power.

    Is he banking on the EU wanting to keep Greece in the Eurozone at any cost? If that's the case, I think we should have a referendum on it.
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    mossy2103mossy2103 Posts: 84,311
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    just to add this snippet into the mix, as reported on the BBC Business Live Updates page at 17:26
    Greece 'in default' to eurozone

    The eurozone's rescue fund - the European Financial Stability Facility - said Greece is in default after missing a payment to the IMF. The EFSF is Greece's largest creditor and said it reserved the right to call in €130bn of debt ahead of schedule. Its chief executive, Klaus Regling, said: "This event of default is cause for deep concern. It breaks the commitment made by Greece to honour its financial obligations to all its creditors and it opens the door to severe consequences for the Greek economy and the Greek people."
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/business-33286580
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    SuperwombleSuperwomble Posts: 4,361
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    Lamparilla wrote: »
    What I don't get is how Tsipras is selling a NO vote as a way of giving Greece more bargaining power.

    Is he banking on the EU wanting to keep Greece in the Eurozone at any cost? If that's the case, I think we should have a referendum on it.

    I dont get that either. Its pretty obvious that Greece's creditors as much as they might lose, are no longer prepared to throw good money after bad, and have pretty much lost patience and have prepared for the consequences of a Greek exit and have damage management systems already in place.
    You dont make those kinds of preparations without having a pretty fair indication that you are going to carry through with ejecting Greece from the Eurozone, with all the short term market turmoil that this may cause.

    Hes also selling the IMF report as a strengthening of his position, which I find quite incredulous. The IMF have blamed Syriza for increasing the debt by 50 billion since they came in, a factor that isnt exactly going to have investors jumping over one another to help Greece in the event of a Euro exit, and nor is it allowing Merkel much wriggle room with her own electorate should there be a no vote.

    Personally I think he is nuts to believe the position he is in is positive. I guess we will all find out on Monday, or Tuesday.
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    nottinghamcnottinghamc Posts: 11,929
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    The main problem I have with this referendum is it appears the Syriza are saying that they want to win so they can democratically demand people lend them money. It's one thing calling a vote on a treaty (which the EU ignore anyway) or a new law, but on whether or not other countries should lend them money? Especially as the deal they're holding this referendum over no longer exists. How does that work? And who will lend money to them? Russia doesn't have anywhere near the cash to prop up Greece's problems, and while sticking two fingers up at the EU sounds like fun (which it is) the alternative is a weak and unstable currency and no other lenders. If this IS some kind of long term strategy for Syriza my god have they sucked at it. They've borrowed even more money, irritated all their allies in the euro (widely reported in various newspapers such as the guardian, times, telegraph, independent) by negotiating so arrogantly, made a ton of promises they knew they'd never be able to keep when they got elected, and are now using a referendum to demand more money while claiming they have deals they just need to sign (according to Varoufakis, although what deal and with who is unknown as the EU don't know anything about it.
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    mRebelmRebel Posts: 24,882
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    Majlis wrote: »
    The Government that lied about Greece's debt and deficit levels to get into the Eurozone was PASOK - the major centre left party in greek politics. How that translates into it all being the fault of the right-wing government (New democracy?) I dont quite see.

    It was the right wing New Democracy in power from 2004 to 2009. Pasok does have a share of the blame, but in pointing out the role of ND I'm pointing out the facts to those who make a moronic assumption that economic troubles were caused by socialists.
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    alanwarwicalanwarwic Posts: 28,396
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    I see it exactly as NottmC sees it.

    What worries me is that, because of Tspras, a Yes vote with him still in charge, paves the way towards civil war.
    That is even more scary for both Greece and the EU.
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    mRebelmRebel Posts: 24,882
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    So the IMF are saying that basically that the current debt repayment is not viable, and it needs to be re-structured, or am I reading it wrong,
    Or has this thread gone so of topic that it's become a battle between socialism and capitalism and the blame game, and the the uk's partication in the the European Union.

    There's been plenty of that! And though left wingers can be guilty of knee jerk apportioning of blame on the political right, I've never encountered so many closed minds as there are right wingers here on DS. If there's an economic crisis, they're convinced it's caused by socialism, and nothing, least of all facts. will change their mind. They no doubt have convinced themselves America's banking crisis was caused by the 'socialist' George W Bush, President at the time.
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