I've been persevering through the lean times for a couple of reasons.
Firstly, retrofitting is by no means an exact science as you can't assume the future by what's happened in the past and it should only be used as a guide. However, since 2007 it flagged up a worst losing streak of 16 with the 2x and 13 with the 3x, which is (slightly) worse than the run I was on, so all was not lost - in my mind.
Secondly, with the 2x, if I could pick race 1 just before the race, and roll any winnings onto race 2 just before the race - thereby only picking races that fitted at the time of the off - I'd be about 60 pts up. There'd be no benefit from the drifters AND you can't do doubles as such that way (more effort and accessibility of bookies which I don't always have).
Still not out of the woods by any means, but at least there may be some light at the end of the tunnel.
At least it's not just me having a rough time, the Geegeez Double Dutch is suffering at the moment as well - just bombed again today.
I even had a look back at September/October in previous years to see if it also struggled, but it doesn't. Not even rain seems to have an effect historically.
That was a much needed boost yesterday although there's still some way to go to reach to levels of profit I'm after.
Today there's quite a few possible races, but the prices are short to the point I'm scraping around finding bookes that I can combine them with. Still, winners will still be profit, however small.
2x Bet 1 with SkyBet
Ludlow 210 Nellie The Elegant 2/1 Mabdhool 11/4
Ludlow 240 Java Rose 7/4 Catherines Wheel 7/4
2x Bet 2 with SkyBet
Thurles 245 Prima Vista 15/8 Kilgarry Bridge 9/4
Ludlow 450 Bob Will 7/4 Kings Apollo 15/8
3x Bet 1 with SkyBet
Ludlow 210 Nellie The Elegant 2/1 Mabdhool 11/4
Ludlow 240 Java Rose 7/4 Catherines Wheel 7/4
Thurles 245 Prima Vista 15/8 Kilgarry Bridge 9/4
There may be more to follow as the Thurles 315, Ludlow 345 and Kempton 710 are possibles as well.
Comments
2x Stats
11 wins from 40 bets
Total Stake 160 pts, Total Return 158.91 pts
P/L -1.09 ROI -0.68%
3x Stats
3 wins from 17 bets
Total Stake 136 pts, Total Return 53.71 pts
P/L -82.29 ROI -60.51%
2x Stats
16 wins from 52 bets
Total Stake 208 pts, Total Return 221.66 pts
P/L +13.66 ROI +6.57%
3x Stats
4 wins from 23 bets
Total Stake 184 pts, Total Return 137.34 pts
P/L -76.66 ROI -41.66%
2x Bet 1
Catt 125 Makinastatement 7/4 Spirit Of Zeb 11/4
Ascot 145 Leading Light 11/4 Forgotten Rules 7/2
2x Bet 2
Ascot 255 Silk Sari 11/2 Cubanita 6/1
Cork 315 Corbata 11/4 Father Christmas 7/2
3x Bet 1
Catt 125 Makinastatement 7/4 Spirit Of Zeb 11/4
Ascot 145 Leading Light 11/4 Forgotten Rules 7/2
Kelso 245 Special Wells 7/4 Carrigeen Lantana 7/2
Kelso 245 as the 3x above plus chelt 530 moon racer 2/1 going for gold 4/1
Another 3x chelt 530, ascot 255 and cork 315 all priced as above
2x Stats
16 wins from 55 bets
Total Stake 220 pts, Total Return 221.66 pts
P/L +1.66 ROI +0.75%
3x Stats
4 wins from 25 bets
Total Stake 200 pts, Total Return 107.34 pts (I've got this figure right now)
P/L -92.66 ROI -46.33%
2x Bet 1 with B365
Naas 345 Investmentsuccess 7/4 Minella Berry 9/4
Cork 400 Lots Of memories 9/4 The Crafty Butcher 11/4
2x Stats
16 wins from 56 bets
Total Stake 224 pts, Total Return 221.66 pts
P/L -2,34 ROI -1.04%
3x Stats
4 wins from 25 bets
Total Stake 200 pts, Total Return 107.34 pts (I've got this figure right now)
P/L -92.66 ROI -46.33%
2x weekly performance
1 win from 12 bets
Total Stake 48 pts, Total Return 4.00 pts
P/L -44.00 ROI -91.67%
3x weekly performance
0 wins from 5 bets
Total Stake 40 pts, Total Return 0 pts
P/L -40.00 ROI -100%
2x Bet 1 with B365
Windsor 150 Anonymous John 7/4 One Moment 9/4
Plumpton 500 Keychain 5/2 To The Sky 3/1
2x Stats
16 wins from 57 bets, 28.07% (target 35%)
Total Stake 228 pts, Total Return 221.66 pts
P/L -6.34 ROI -2.78%
3x Stats
4 wins from 25 bets, 16.00% (target 25%)
Total Stake 200 pts, Total Return 107.34 pts (I've got this figure right now)
P/L -92.66 ROI -46.33%
2x Bet 1 with B365
Exeter 210 Howlongisafoot 7/4 The Nephew 5/2
Wolves 220 Longside 7/4 Secret Glance 11/4
2x Bet 2 with B365
Exeter 510 Kalifourchon 2/1 Restraint 3/1
Kempton 730 Panatella 7/4 Frederic 7/2
3x Bet 1 with B365
Exeter 210 Howlongisafoot 7/4 The Nephew 5/2
Wolves 220 Longside 7/4 Secret Glance 11/4
Exeter 510 Kalifourchon 2/1 Restraint 3/1
My mate owns that horse, was never going to win over 2 miles over fences but wait until it goes for 2m4f it will romp it.....hopefully
I'll stick in my tracker.
2x Stats
16 wins from 59 bets, 27.12% (target 35%)
Total Stake 236 pts, Total Return 221.66 pts
P/L -14.34 ROI -6.08%
3x Stats
4 wins from 26 bets, 15.38% (target 25%)
Total Stake 208 pts, Total Return 107.34 pts
P/L -100.66 ROI -48.39%
2x Bet 1 with B365
Navan 135 Red Ivy 7/4 Shanghai Beauty 15/8
Worc 145 Milly Malone 3/1 No Through Road 7/2
2x Bet 2 with B365
Worc 250 Orabora 2/1 Lysino 5/2
Font 410 Vikekhal 9/4 Alanjou 4/1
2x Bet 3 with B365
Navan 500 Face Value 9/2 Strandfield Lady 6/1
Worc 505 Derrintogether Bliss 2/1 He's A Bully 2/1
2x Bet 4 with BetVictor
Navan 530 Kadayma 5/1 Rightdownthemiddle 5/1
Kemp 655 Natural Nine 9/4 Wentworth Falls 3/1
3x Bet 1 with B365
Navan 135 Red Ivy 7/4 Shanghai Beauty 15/8
Worc 145 Milly Malone 3/1 No Through Road 7/2
Worc 250 Orabora 2/1 Lysino 5/2
3x Bet 2 with B365
Font 410 Vikekhal 9/4 Alanjou 4/1
Navan 500 Face Value 9/2 Strandfield Lady 6/1
Worc 505 Derrintogether Bliss 2/1 He's A Bully 2/1
3x Bet 3 with BetVictor
Navan 530 Kadayma 5/1 Rightdownthemiddle 5/1
Kemp 655 Natural Nine 9/4 Wentworth Falls 3/1
Kemp 925 Cadmium 7/2 Welsh Dancer 13/2
May be more to follow.
(nice drifter in there as well........:D)
I've been persevering through the lean times for a couple of reasons.
Firstly, retrofitting is by no means an exact science as you can't assume the future by what's happened in the past and it should only be used as a guide. However, since 2007 it flagged up a worst losing streak of 16 with the 2x and 13 with the 3x, which is (slightly) worse than the run I was on, so all was not lost - in my mind.
Secondly, with the 2x, if I could pick race 1 just before the race, and roll any winnings onto race 2 just before the race - thereby only picking races that fitted at the time of the off - I'd be about 60 pts up. There'd be no benefit from the drifters AND you can't do doubles as such that way (more effort and accessibility of bookies which I don't always have).
Still not out of the woods by any means, but at least there may be some light at the end of the tunnel.
At least it's not just me having a rough time, the Geegeez Double Dutch is suffering at the moment as well - just bombed again today.
I even had a look back at September/October in previous years to see if it also struggled, but it doesn't. Not even rain seems to have an effect historically.
2x Bet 1 returned 16.50
2x Bet 2 returned 17.50
3x Bet 1 returned 57.75
2x Stats
18 wins from 63 bets 28.57% (target 35%)
Total stake 252 pts, total return 255.66 pts
P/L 3.66 ROI 1.45% (target 20%)
3x Stats
5 wins from 29 bets 17.24% (target 25%)
Total stake 232 pts, total return 165.09 pts
P/L -66.91 ROI -28.85% (target 20%)
Today there's quite a few possible races, but the prices are short to the point I'm scraping around finding bookes that I can combine them with. Still, winners will still be profit, however small.
2x Bet 1 with SkyBet
Ludlow 210 Nellie The Elegant 2/1 Mabdhool 11/4
Ludlow 240 Java Rose 7/4 Catherines Wheel 7/4
2x Bet 2 with SkyBet
Thurles 245 Prima Vista 15/8 Kilgarry Bridge 9/4
Ludlow 450 Bob Will 7/4 Kings Apollo 15/8
3x Bet 1 with SkyBet
Ludlow 210 Nellie The Elegant 2/1 Mabdhool 11/4
Ludlow 240 Java Rose 7/4 Catherines Wheel 7/4
Thurles 245 Prima Vista 15/8 Kilgarry Bridge 9/4
There may be more to follow as the Thurles 315, Ludlow 345 and Kempton 710 are possibles as well.
Thurles 315 Lone Start 7/4 Pershing 7/2
Kempton 710 Lovely Memory 9/4 Spirited Acclaim 7/2
3x Bet 2 with BetVictor
Thurles 315 Lone Start 7/4 Pershing 7/2
Ludlow 450 Kings Apollo 7/4 Bob Will 7/4
Kempton 710 Lovely Memory 9/4 Spirited Acclaim 7/2
2x Stats
18 wins from 66 bets 27.27% (target 35%)
Total stake 264 pts, total return 255.66 pts
P/L -8.34 pts, ROI -3.16% (target 20%)
3x Stats
5 wins from 31 bets 16.12% (target 25%)
Total stake 248 pts, total return 165.09 pts
P/L -82.91 pts, ROI -33.44% (target 20%)
2x Bet 1
Doncaster 150 Yarrow 7/4 Star Of Seville 9/4
Newbury 210 Miracle NinetyNine 15/8 Firmament 9/4
2x Bet 2
Newbury 245 Smart 15/8 Copperopolis 9/4
Doncaster 255 Thahab 5/2 True Respect 4/1
3x Bet 1
Newbury 210 Miracle NinetyNine 15/8 Firmament 9/4
Doncaster 255 Thahab 5/2 True Respect 4/1
Wolves 820 Classic Villager 5/2 Life Less Ordinary 5/2
2x Stats
19 wins from 68 bets 27.94% (target 35%)
Total stake 272 pts, total return 271.91 pts
P/L -0.1 pts, ROI -0.04% (target 20%)
3x Stats
5 wins from 32 bets 15.62% (target 25%)
Total stake 256 pts, total return 165.09 pts
P/L -90.91 pts, ROI -35.52% (target 20%)