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Electoral Calculus website and Clacton

radio4extracrapradio4extracrap Posts: 2,933
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in Politics #1
Still has The sitting MP as Conservative and Ukip's chances of winning the GE as 0.7%. They need to catch up...

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  • blueisthecolourblueisthecolour Posts: 20,125
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    #2
    radio4extracrap wrote: »
    Still has The sitting MP as Conservative and Ukip's chances of winning the GE as 0.7%. They need to catch up...

    Yes, you are correct - it has not been updated.

    The clue is the bit in the top right hand corner that says:
    These pages last updated on Sun 31 Aug 2014 14:19.

    But Electoral Calculus don't look at this in terms of local politics (or by elections), they are simply looking at national polling data and extrapolating out to individual seats. They assume a uniform swing in each one so it's nothing more than a very basic prediction.
  • trevgotrevgo Posts: 28,241
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    #3
    Why do I get the impression Clacton is the beginning and end of some peoples world? ;-)
  • blueisthecolourblueisthecolour Posts: 20,125
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    #4
    trevgo wrote: »
    Why do I get the impression Clacton is the beginning and end of some peoples world? ;-)

    You're wrong trevgo. When the locally popular MP wins his his safe seat back after being under the UKIP banner for at least 6 weeks (in a constituency that is the #1 UKIP favourable seat in the country) that will mean the party can win anywhere :D:D:D
  • smudges dadsmudges dad Posts: 36,989
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    #5
    Using the Ashcroft poll (Con = 24%, Lab = 16%, LD=2%, UKIP =54% - adjusted from 56% to fit algorithm), gives a UKIP majority of 560, with the Conservatives with 1 seat, Labour 23 and UKIP 605 seats
  • SoppyfanSoppyfan Posts: 29,911
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    #6
    Electoral Calculus claim to be the most accurate polling prediction site, but there are several factors that could thrown them way off, such as voting turnout, local issues, etc.
  • allaortaallaorta Posts: 19,050
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    #7
    smudges dad wrote: »
    Using the Ashcroft poll (Con = 24%, Lab = 16%, LD=2%, UKIP =54% - adjusted from 56% to fit algorithm), gives a UKIP majority of 560, with the Conservatives with 1 seat, Labour 23 and UKIP 605 seats

    Yippee, though the enormous number of Labour seats is disappointing...:D
  • trevgotrevgo Posts: 28,241
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    #8
    smudges dad wrote: »
    Using the Ashcroft poll (Con = 24%, Lab = 16%, LD=2%, UKIP =54% - adjusted from 56% to fit algorithm), gives a UKIP majority of 560, with the Conservatives with 1 seat, Labour 23 and UKIP 605 seats

    Your best post in living memory

    :D
  • Multimedia81Multimedia81 Posts: 83,174
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    #9
    People may well vote for Douglas Carswell at the by-election, impressed by his sincerity and willingness to change political party to accommodate his beliefs. However, at the General Election people will think about what government they want beyond just Europe and immigration, and vote Tory, meaning Douglas losing his seat.
  • radio4extracrapradio4extracrap Posts: 2,933
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    #10
    Multimedia81 wrote: »
    People may well vote for Douglas Carswell at the by-election, impressed by his sincerity and willingness to change political party to accommodate his beliefs. However, at the General Election people will think about what government they want beyond just Europe and immigration, and vote Tory, meaning Douglas losing his seat.

    For the unknowing. Third DS thread you have cut and pasted these words into. If you think he'll lose in May - put a bet on you'll get good odds!
    You're Probably a Tory employee earning a crust contributing to sites...
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