Starting to look like an outright Labour victory in 2015 is slipping away from Ed Miliband.
And yet 3 days ago Yougov had a 7 point lead for Labour. The range over the past year or so is 3-8%, excluding outliers, and hasn't changed much. There's still 14 months to go before the GE, with the Euro elections and the Scottish referendum in the way, so anything can happen, but it's looking like a majority for Labour on present polling.
Political calculus gives a Labour majority of 26 with the 3% lead, 48 with the 4 point lead and 88 with the 7 point lead.
And yet 3 days ago Yougov had a 7 point lead for Labour. The range over the past year or so is 3-8%, excluding outliers, and hasn't changed much. There's still 14 months to go before the GE, with the Euro elections and the Scottish referendum in the way, so anything can happen, but it's looking like a majority for Labour on present polling.
On the present polling it would be an outright majority for Labour, 20 seats in that last poll. (UK polling report)
However we have to take into account that one year before the 2010 GE the Tories were averaging over 10% above Labour, and that slipped away from them. Also, there appears to be a trend of a decreased Labour lead forming...which is bad news for an opposition party one year off a GE.
Looks like the disaster of a referendum question has hurt Labour.
So far
Labour - No referendum
Tories - Maybe have one
UKIP - Will Have one
LibDems - ???
I think you've got a tiny bit mixed up,
Labour - Will have one if there are further power exchanges from London to Brussels (So effectively no referendum)
Tories - A referendum in 2017, In/Out after attempted repatriation of powers
UKIP - Will have one
Lib Dems - No referendum
On the present polling it would be an outright majority for Labour, 20 seats in that last poll. (UK polling report)
However we have to take into account that one year before the 2010 GE the Tories were averaging over 10% above Labour, and that slipped away from them. Also, there appears to be a trend of a decreased Labour lead forming...which is bad news for an opposition party one year off a GE.
Alternatively, the Tories could lose a further 10% by applying the same logic in a different direction.
Is this the first sign of traction for the Lib Dems? Maybe their outspoken support for EU membership has won them back some friends on the left.
I wonder whether we could see a realignment back to tactical voting against the Conservatives. Lib Dems holding their seats but their votes transferring to Labour in their Tory marginals. We could even see the Tories ending up with 37% of the vote but Labour and Lib Dems holding a majority of seats - at which point the Daily Mail will implode at the unfairness of the electoral system
What do you think it was like in 2010 when GB was deeply unpopular and we were in the middle of a recession? Despite that, the Tories lost 10%.
Actually the economy was beginning to recover, plus we had the unexpected phenomenon of 'Cleggmania'...which something tells me won't be happening this time around, the Cleggmania that is.
Actually the economy was beginning to recover, plus we had the unexpected phenomenon of 'Cleggmania'...which something tells me won't be happening this time around, the Cleggmania that is.
To "it's the wrong kind of snow" we can now add "it's the wrong kind of recovery".
Good luck with that one.
At least come up with something original next time. It's not the wrong kind of recovery, its no recovery at all for vast swathes of the country, especially in areas where there are many marginals like the midlands and the Tories will pay the price at the ballot box.
A big fault with Tory economic policy and exactly the same as in the 1980's and 1990's is that any prosperity generated benefits only a select few whilst they promise it will 'trickle down', which of course like the 1980's and 90's simply never happens, of course by then the Conservatives and their cronies have stuffed their pockets (much of it from Government Handouts for thir supporters in industry) hence their destruction by New Labour in 1997.
I'm not the one getting all cocky with the polls, you clearly have a lot of emotional attachment to a Labour win. Politics matters very little to my day to day life.
There is zero chance of that, do you seriously think that they will get anywhere near the minimum 40% needed?
I would suggest that anyone who thinks there is zero chance of something like that happening in the next 14 months doesn't consider how things can change in politics.
Comments
Political calculus gives a Labour majority of 26 with the 3% lead, 48 with the 4 point lead and 88 with the 7 point lead.
On the present polling it would be an outright majority for Labour, 20 seats in that last poll. (UK polling report)
However we have to take into account that one year before the 2010 GE the Tories were averaging over 10% above Labour, and that slipped away from them. Also, there appears to be a trend of a decreased Labour lead forming...which is bad news for an opposition party one year off a GE.
Much as I don't want to tempt fate, it was never rationally looking that way with the improving economy and a year plus to go.
I think it's most likely to be a hung parliament either way with a supply/confidence deal rather than a coalition.
So far
Labour - No referendum
Tories - Maybe have one
UKIP - Will Have one
LibDems - ???
I think you've got a tiny bit mixed up,
Labour - Will have one if there are further power exchanges from London to Brussels (So effectively no referendum)
Tories - A referendum in 2017, In/Out after attempted repatriation of powers
UKIP - Will have one
Lib Dems - No referendum
Those figures would still produce a Labour majority of around 60.
Alternatively, the Tories could lose a further 10% by applying the same logic in a different direction.
Considering the current trend + economic circumstances at the time...as well as an unpopular leader of the opposition, I think that's very unlikely.
What do you think it was like in 2010 when GB was deeply unpopular and we were in the middle of a recession? Despite that, the Tories lost 10%.
I wonder whether we could see a realignment back to tactical voting against the Conservatives. Lib Dems holding their seats but their votes transferring to Labour in their Tory marginals. We could even see the Tories ending up with 37% of the vote but Labour and Lib Dems holding a majority of seats - at which point the Daily Mail will implode at the unfairness of the electoral system
Actually the economy was beginning to recover, plus we had the unexpected phenomenon of 'Cleggmania'...which something tells me won't be happening this time around, the Cleggmania that is.
The economy wasn't recovering...
To "it's the wrong kind of snow" we can now add "it's the wrong kind of recovery".
Good luck with that one.
A big fault with Tory economic policy and exactly the same as in the 1980's and 1990's is that any prosperity generated benefits only a select few whilst they promise it will 'trickle down', which of course like the 1980's and 90's simply never happens, of course by then the Conservatives and their cronies have stuffed their pockets (much of it from Government Handouts for thir supporters in industry) hence their destruction by New Labour in 1997.
Yes, looks like it's all over.
How will you and your friend, Neil cope if the Tories get a majority?
How will you if they don't?
I'm not the one getting all cocky with the polls, you clearly have a lot of emotional attachment to a Labour win. Politics matters very little to my day to day life.
I would suggest that anyone who thinks there is zero chance of something like that happening in the next 14 months doesn't consider how things can change in politics.