Seat predictions for 2020 general election
StrictlyEastend
Posts: 35,455 Forum Member
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I know it is a long way away, but currently, how many seats would you expect the main 4 parties to get at Westminster at 2020?
Currently, I think
Con- 352
Lab- 190
UKIP- 2
LD- 9
You can of course keep updating this thread.
Currently, I think
Con- 352
Lab- 190
UKIP- 2
LD- 9
You can of course keep updating this thread.
0
Comments
Do we know what seats will go yet?
Just a random guess and based on 650 seats.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_Kingdom_Parliament_constituencies
I'm going to make a prediction on every seat (I know, I'm that sad!
If its Osborne vs Corbyn I expect about a 1-2% swing from Lab to Con, no idea how that translates into seats. If its a different Labour leader who is more moderate vs Osborne I expect a small swing to Labour. Anything other than that I'm unsure.
The SNP, with their paltry 4.7% vote share, are 5th behind Tory, Labour, UKIP and Lib Dem.
SNP 56 seats
Lib Den 8 seats
Ulster Unionists 8 seats
UKIP 1 seat
Greens 1 seat
Remember, the thread is talking about seats, not votes.
Conservative 302
Labour 258
Lib Dems 18
UKIP 3
Greens 3
One nation parties...
SNP 44
Plaid Cymru 3
SDLP 6
DUP 5
UUP 3
Sinn Fein 4
(Some blind guesses in there!)
Hopefully that adds up to 649 + speaker. I'll go for that. (18 constituencies in Northern Ireland I think?)
I have looked at the first 75 seats on the list that I posted before and here are the seats that I think will change:
Bath - Lib Dem Gain from Con
Bedford - Lab Gain from Con
Berwick-upon-Tweed - Lib Dem Gain from Con
Bolton West - Lab Gain from Con
Brighton Kemptown - Lab Gain from Con
Brighton Pavilion - Lab Gain from Green
Bristol North West - Lab Gain from Con
And the seats after the first 75: Lab 44 (+4), Con 29 (-6), Lib Dem 2 (+2)
Con-250
Lab 90
UKIP 120
LD- 93
Or in order:
Cons
UKIP
LD
Lab
There's 600 seats In 2020.
The LD's look stuffed - they lose some to boundary changes even if they retain their vote
UKIP on 120 seats? Have you been drinking?
I think the Lib Dem support will pick up but not that any seats and I know that Labour won't do well under Corbyn but 90 seats? I'm sure they have at least 100 safe seats!
Bury North - Lab Gain from Con
Cheadle - Lib Dem Gain from Con
Cheltenham - Lib Dem Gain from Con
Colchester - Lib Dem Gain from Con
Corby - Lab Gain from Con
Croydon Central - Lab Gain from Con
Derby North - Lab Gain from Con
And the seats after the first 150: Lab 76 (+8), Con 66 (-13), Lib Dem 6 (+5), UKIP 1 (0), Speaker 1 (0), Greens 0 (-1)
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
The key figure is that the Probability of a Labour majority is 2%. That's because despite the small majority, Labour still need to win over 100 seats to have a single figure majority of their own. They may win back a few seats in Scotland and increase their majorities in the NE, NW and inner London but it's hard to see where that many gains are going to come from.
LAB - 317
CON - 230
LD - 48
SNP - 24
PC - 11
UKIP - 1
GRN - 1
OTH - 18
Damn. Reduce my predictions by (............) 7% or whatever it is across the board then.
No point being detailed then without knowing how many constituencies Northern Ireland will have in 2020. With Scotland and Wales you can always have a rough guess at how the nationalist parties will do and know the UK parties can be reasoned to pick up the remainder so a guess is broadly possible without knowing how many constituencies there will be in total. Not the case in Northern Ireland where there are no UK parties so no point proceeding with estimates unless we've a number on the constituencies per nation.
Until we get PR, seats are what count, not votes. Then UKIP can get their rightful share of bores, if they still exist.